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October 15 2018

moneymetals

As The Markets Sell-off The Precious Metals Rebound

To the surprise of many investors, the precious metals have rallied while the broader markets continue to sell-off. Currently, both gold and silver are solidly in the green while the major indexes were all the red following a huge sell-off yesterday. The Dow Jones Index has lost nearly 1,000 points in the past two days while the gold price is up nearly $25.

However, even though we could see a late-day rally in the markets, and even higher stock indexes over the next few months, the bear market for stocks is still coming. The Dow Jones Index has now suffered two large sell-offs in the past ten months:

Dow jones - oct. 10, 2018

In January, the Dow Jones Index fell by more 3,000 points, and the current correction is only one-half of that amount. So, I expect to see a continued correction over the next month. Because October is the worst month for market Crashes, this could be one hell of a blow for not only the economy but also, for investor confidence.

For example, according to the Zerohedge article, Used-Car Prices Plunge Most In 15 Years:

CPI - used cars & trucks mom

Looking deeper at the core inflation print, it reflected a 3% monthly drop in prices for used cars and trucks following increases in each of the last 3 months, and the biggest drop in 15 years…

And then, of course, the continued disintegration of the U.S. Retail Market, Sears Creditors Push For Bankruptcy Liquidation As Vendors No Longer Paid:

Amid recent reports that Sears is set to file for bankruptcy as soon as this weekend ahead of a $134 million debt payment due on Monday, the only question is whether the filing will be a Chapter 11 debt for equity reorganization or a Chapter 7 liquidation. And contrary to the desires of Sears CEO and biggest creditor, Eddie Lampert, who would like to preserve the core business, others are pushing for an outright liquidation.

Article Source: https://goo.gl/Ked2FS


October 09 2018

moneymetals

The Federal Reserve’s Rising Interest Rates Are A Ticking Time-bomb For U.S. Economy

One of the worst things for an over-heated and extremely leveraged economy is rising interest rates. So, with the recent 2-2.25% interest rate, big trouble is on the horizon, Also, with higher interest rates, the U.S. Treasury will have to fork out even more money to service its debt. In just a little more than two years, the U.S. Fed Funds Rate jumped by nearly 2%.

This is indeed a big change for the Federal Reserve’s “economic stimulation policy” as it kept interest rates below 0.25% since January 2009. And with extremely low-interest rates, nearly zero, it allowed the United States to more than double domestic oil production. Unfortunately, this newly created oil supply has come at a huge cost. It has created another big mess which I call the U.S. Shale Ponzi Scheme.

But, before I get into details of this article, I wanted to let my readers and followers know that the lack of articles this week was due to a freak storm that impacted our area. We had a mini-tornado or a micro-burst that touched down in our local area which caused a great deal of destruction, mostly to trees and bushes. In a little more than 10 minutes, upwards of 100 mile per hour winds uprooted, snapped and destroyed a large number of trees on our property.

Interestingly, there was only minor damage done to one home in the adjacent neighborhood. The homeowner’s wooden porch and garage tin roof were ripped off, and part of the roof is still hanging 30 feet up in one of our trees. So, I have been quite busy not only cleaning up the mess on my property, but also helping my neighbor. I will say, the good thing that came out of all this destruction is how our neighbors came out together to help out.

So, I apologize for the lack of articles this week. But, I will be posting several articles next week on the interesting changes taking place in the economy and financial system.

Okay, getting back to rising interest rates. The Federal Funds Rate is now 2-2.25%. As we can see in the chart below, it is the highest it has been in nearly a decade:

Effective federal funds rate (chart)

Furthermore, each time the Fed hiked interest rates, a recession (shown in the shaded areas) was the result. When the Fed increased the Funds Rate from 1% in May 2005 to over 5% by 2007, it assisted in the crashing of the mighty U.S. housing bubble and precipitated the investment banking meltdown in 2008.

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/3Ud3qx

moneymetals

Frank Holmes: Here’s Why Gold Stocks, Gold, and Silver Are Great Buys Now

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Frank holmes

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at U.S. Global Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book The Gold Watcher: Demystifying Gold Investing, and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast.

Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again.

Frank Holmes: It's great to be with you.

Mike Gleason: Frank, it seems like escalating tariffs and trade tensions have been the major topic on Wall Street since early last spring. We continue to be a bit baffled by the market's reaction, however. The President has gone from posturing to serious action with another $200 billion imposed on China a couple of weeks ago. The equity markets aren't particularly fazed near as we can tell. It is yet to move the needle on the trade deficit at all, though it is still early, but it is starting to show up in prices. We've been buying heavy duty racks for our storage vault over the past few months, for instance, and on a recent batch which we just ordered yesterday, the price rose some 10% from what they just were a couple of months ago, and the reason we were given was that the manufacturer is having to pay more for imported steel. You've called these tariffs a tax, Frank, and that's exactly what it is. Do you think the rest of America will notice much higher prices any time soon?

Frank Holmes: Well, I think that the tariffs or the trade war is able to do what it is doing short-term because of the fiscal stimulus that took place last year with tax reform, and I think that that's why the market hasn't capitulated. Profits are still strong. We had a big run in small cap stocks, predominantly domestic stocks, and a small handful of big cap like Amazon in the markets, but there's no doubt that the trade and tariff war is going to impact… and we see it on steel prices such as if you're building a contemporary modern home today, you have to use more steel for the open space, and those prices, steel prices are up 35%. So you start to run these numbers through and you're seeing price inflation is going to come now with Amazon at going to $15 an hour, you're going to see the CPI number ticking up. That's what I really believe. If we also looked at the 1980 numbers and later on numbers for CPI calculations, inflation's running at 10%, so when they say it's 2.4 or 2.7, I find that really difficult (to believe).

I noticed in San Antonio, our avocados used to always come from Mexico and no longer, and the prices are up and the quality is down. So, I do see that there's some issues on this trade war, but I don't think it's over, the trade war. And I think it's going to get worse because there's a real strategy against China. In the renegotiated NAFTA agreement, which is over 1000 pages, there are some policy decisions there that Canada and Mexico cannot go into a special pact with China, otherwise that whole agreement is thrown out the door. And same thing with South Korea, Mexico, Japan, there's a real push by the administration to go after China. Now the positive part is that Trump and his administration want to have zero tariffs everywhere and let the best athlete win. And the issues with China is that they are double standards and lots of protectionism. So, that battle is not over. There is also the big concern that China is trying to undermine the currency and have an alternative currency and that is something that Mnuchin and Trump are very concerned about.

You wouldn't normally think when you have such a high interest rate differential. Today we're seeing two-year, five-year, ten-year government bonds all about the CPI number that's reported and when you look and compare to Japan at ten beeps for ten-year money versus 3.8. Germany, Europe is 60 basis points, there's something not right there and normally the dollar would actually be much, much higher. Gold would be under $1,000 and the fact that it's not is very constructive for the price of gold because any rollover in the dollar, in a slow down this economic engine, which I think is going to happen next quarter. By the end of this quarter we're going to get into what's called rebalancing our portfolios and I think that we're going to have some real issues there.

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/9JGxc9

October 02 2018

moneymetals

U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales Spike By Another 1 Million At End Of September

us-mint-silver-eagle-sales-spike-by-another-1-million-at-end-of-september.jpg

Demand for the U.S. Mint Silver Eagles spiked again at the end of the September pushing sales nearly to three million. In a little more than a week, Silver Eagle sales jumped from 1.9 million to 2.9 million, nearly doubling from the previous month. Sales of Silver Eagles in August were only 1.5 million versus 2.9 million in September.

As I mentioned in my previous update, the U.S. Mint temporarily halted sales of Silver Eagles at the beginning of September due to a spike in demand. However, as the U.S. Mint resumed sales, the Authorized purchasers have been taking advantage of the low price.

Let’s look at my Silver Eagle chart from September 19th:

Silver eagle sales march-september 2018

As we can see, Silver Eagle sales bottomed in May at 380,000, and have continued to rise over the next four months. Now, if we look at the U.S. Mint’s most recent update, sales have jumped by nearly 1 million to 2.9 million:

US mint silver eagle sales september 2018

If we exclude sales in January (2017 & 2018), which are normally elevated due to the new annual release of the Silver Eagle, the last highest month was in November 2016 at 3,061,000. So, we can see that demand hasn’t been this robust in nearly two years.

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/7fEC4H

October 01 2018

moneymetals

Italy Borrows Too Much, The US Borrows More

Last week’s rally in the U.S. dollar was driven largely by weakness in the euro.

Italy was back in the headlines. The Italian government committed to borrowing even more money and, to the surprise of nobody with sense, the odds of default on Italian debt leapt higher.

Italian bonds are getting clobbered, and renewed concerns over the potential for a default now weigh heavily on the euro. Populists rose to power in recent Italian elections, promising to reduce austerity and increase government spending to stimulate the moribund economy.

Last week they delivered, passing a budget with large increases in a number of programs. The deficit there is expected to rise from 0.8% of gross domestic product to 2.4%, triple what was planned before.

The Italian government has already borrowed well in excess of the nation’s gross domestic product. The debt to GDP ratio is currently 132%. Those who own Italian bonds are right to be nervous.

When will the holders of U.S. Treasury debt begin wising up? Investors seem to think default is only possible elsewhere. European nations such as Italy, Greece, and Spain have been cycling in and out of financial turmoil for years now. So far, none of this has troubled the U.S. bond market.

The people who are worried about a jump in deficit spending in Italy ought to have a look at U.S. deficits when compared to federal spending...

Recent federal deficits as pct spending us from fy 2007 to fy 2017

The 2018 deficit is forecast to be 20% of overall spending. Currently one in five dollars spent in Washington has been borrowed. There has not been a year below 10% since before the 2008 financial crisis. And deficits are back on the rise, since bottoming in 2015.

The U.S. debt to GDP ratio currently rests at 104% and it is growing quickly. The trillion dollar deficit projected for next year will push that ratio to near 109%. When we get a major recession like the one plaguing Italy, GDP will be falling and our politicians will be pouring on the stimulus spending. The ratio will explode higher.

Check it out here: https://goo.gl/1YYQqX

moneymetals

Congress Approving Extraordinary New Deficit Spending


Chris powellMike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Chris Powell, Secretary-Treasurer at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, also known as GATA. Chris is a long time journalist and a hard money advocate and through his tireless efforts at GATA he is working to expose the manipulation of the gold and silver markets. Through GATA's work over the years some important revelations have come to light, which quite honestly should concern everyone.

It's great to have him back with us. Chris, good to have you on again and how are you?

Chris Powell: Oh, very good, Mike. Glad to be here.

Mike Gleason: Well, Chris, before we get into other things please start by giving our audience a bit of background on your organization as some may not be familiar. What is GATA? How did you get started? And where do you focus your efforts?

Chris Powell: GATA is the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee. We got started in January 1999 to expose and complain about and, if we could, stop the manipulation of the gold market, which is done largely surreptitiously by central banks and their agents. Certain investment banks.

We originally thought that the suppression in the monetary metals prices was an ordinary market rigging scheme run by the largest participants in the markets, the banks. After we did a year or two of research we realized that gold price suppression is longstanding Western government and central bank policy going back many decades. It used to be implemented in the open through the gold standard and the London gold pool and mechanisms like that. Now it is implemented largely through the rigging of the futures and derivatives markets. The major participants in this rigging are the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, the Bank of England, the Bank for International Settlements.

If you look closely through the government archives, the policy records, you can see this policy of gold price suppression is very plainly articulated. There's really nothing secret about it if you're ready to look for the documents. The problem is there're very few people who want to get into this issue because it would show that our market system is an illusion. That governments and central banks are really rigging not only the monetary metals markets, but they're rigging all markets and that in fact, we have a very elaborate government system of control of the prices of all capital labor goods and services in the world. It's really a totalitarian system and we just try to show people the documentation of it, urge them to raise questions about it and slowly push the world toward a free market system.

Mike Gleason: On that note, you guys have been at this a long time and the evidence just keeps piling up as to pervasive price manipulation in the metals markets. And to be fair, banks have now been caught cheating in a variety of markets – LIBOR, currency markets, mortgage back securities – you name it, they've rigged it. It seems like your job should be getting easier, but it isn't. Why is that? Why is it so difficult to get reform given the markets so clearly need fixing?

Check it out: https://goo.gl/kF7CaM

September 26 2018

moneymetals

Download Your Free Copy of 
Money Metals Insider NOW! (Fall 2018)

More freebies for you!



We're pleased today to grant you access to the Fall 2018 issue ofMoney Metals Insider – a FREE benefit for you, our valued reader.



Please check it out right away!



Money metals insider fall 2018

One big development is legislation Money Metals has helped bring forward in Congress that, if passed, would end the improper taxation of the monetary metals.

Your free Money Metals Insider newsletter also updates you on Trump's dispute with the Fed, the retail precious metals market, reader questions about bitcoin, platinum, and the gold:silver ratio, and much more.

Of course, not only does Money Metals offer super competitive pricing when you want to buy, but also we are without a doubt the #1 place in the country to SELL your precious metals as well.

Here are the highlights from your free Money Metals Insider newsletter:

So download the PDF of this fantastic free newsletter right now – and pass it around to your friends! It's another free benefit for those who have signed up for the Money Metals email list.

Source: https://goo.gl/SRnPeX

moneymetals

Gold/Silver Ratio Back at Extremes

gold-silver-ratio-at-extremes-social.jpg

The gold/silver ratio, calculated by simply dividing the gold price by the silver price, may be signaling the end of the bear market in metals is drawing near. That could be good news for gold investors and great news for those who hold silver.

First, let's take a look at a long-term chart of the ratio:

Gold/Silver ratio (1975-2018)

The 1980 low in the ratio coincided with the blow off top in the silver price at $50/oz. Both metals fell sharply after that peak, and silver underperformed gold for the majority of the next 11 years.

The gold/silver ratio peaked in 1991 when it spiked to almost 100. Gold was priced near $400/oz and silver near $4. Since that peak, the ratio has spent the majority of its time bouncing between about 40 on the low end and 70 on the upper end of the range.

Read more: 

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/09/24/gold-silver-ratios-at-extremes-001623

September 25 2018

moneymetals

Central Bank Gold Purchases Now Control 10% Of The Total Market

central-bank-gold-purchases-social.jpg

Central Banks have become big players in the gold market and now control 10% of the total market demand. Now, this wasn’t always the case. Just ten years ago, the Central Banks were main suppliers via their policy of dumping gold into the market. However, the Central Bank strategy to sell gold into the market to depress the price, had quite the opposite effect.

For example, Central Banks dumped over 2,600 metric tons of gold into the market between 2003 and 2007, according to data from the World Gold Council. So, what kind of impact on price did the sale of 84 million oz of Central Bank gold have on the market during that period? The price of gold nearly doubled from $363 in 2003 to $695 in 2007.

Central banks gold

The last year Central Banks sold gold into the market was in 2009. However, it was only 34 metric tons. Since 2010, Central Banks have been net purchases of gold. Between 2010 and 2017, Central Banks purchased nearly 3,700 metric tons (mt) or a stunning 119​ ​million oz of gold.

And Central Bank gold purchases don’t seem to be slowing. The World Gold Council (WGC) just released yesterday in their Market Update: Central bank buying activity, that official gold purchases are now 10% of the total market.

Using data from the WGC Demand Trends, Central Banks purchased 193 mt of gold in the first half of 2018, representing 10% of the total global demand:

Central bank gold purchases vs. total demand (1h 2018)

The majority of the official gold purchases during the 1H of 2018 came from Russia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan. Now, what a difference than just a little more than a decade ago when Central Banks were selling rather than buying gold.

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/hfYhqE

September 24 2018

moneymetals

The Least Known (and Best Performing) Precious Metal

palladium-good-investment-social.jpgGold and silver have risen substantially off the price bottom put in just 2-½ years ago, but the gains have yet to attract much notice. Gold has gained roughly 28% and silver is up 20%.

Meanwhile, another metal has more than doubled since bottoming. This performance should have been more than enough to catch the attention of metals investors, if only they were watching. The metal is palladium and, for those who haven’t paid much attention, it is time for a brief update.

Palladium is one of the platinum group metals (PGMs) and it has a lot in common with its higher profile brother.

Like platinum, palladium is a lustrous, silver-white metal. It has many of the same applications. The largest application is in automobile catalytic converters, but there are also uses in jewelry, dentistry, surgical instruments, and electronics.

Palladium also shares platinum’s troubled supply chain.

The top producers are Russia and South Africa. The latter nation has fallen deeper into turmoil in recent months.

Mines there have dealt with unreliable electricity and labor strife for years. Operators are now at great risk of the having mine properties seized by government officials.

PGMs represent a good way for bullion investors to diversify and gain exposure to different market fundamentals.

Diversification can reduce the volatility in any investment and can produce better results – particularly in weaker markets. Just consider the relative outperformance of palladium versus gold and silver over the past 30 months.

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/rUXEFt


September 21 2018

moneymetals

Oil Prices, War Fears, and Rising Inflation All Point to Gold Strength Audio Player

Well now, without further delay, let’s hear this week’s exclusive interview with the man who famously advises people to have always have guns, gold and a getaway plan.

Gerald celente

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps most well-known Trends forecaster in the world, and it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Oh, thanks for having me on, Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well Gerald, one of the hot topics in the markets today is the escalating trade tensions. Trump just announced another $200 billion in tariffs on China and he looks ready to more than double that if the Chinese should retaliate. The President is confident the U.S. can win a trade war. Do you share that optimism? How do you see this playing out?

Gerald Celente: I absolutely share that. Because I mean, here's the deal. If your or I were to do business and I'm making $350 billion more than you are, are you going to want to renegotiate this? Hey listen, something's wrong over here. So, when you look at even with the tariffs that Trump is putting on, that still amounts to a very small percentage of China's GDP, about 0.3%, or something like that, 5%, 6% tops. So China's going to negotiate. They're not going to give up a very lucrative business deal, so they could keep making more when the other business partner wants a better share.

Mike Gleason: And how do you see the escalating tariffs impacting markets? So far the response appears mixed. The dollar seems to be benefiting, and metals are suffering. We aren't sure the markets have it right when it comes to the dollar though. It seems to us that tariffs should drive price inflation. Either Americans pay a higher price for the imported goods, or replace them with more expensive domestic products. And the Chinese aren't likely to be buying as many dollars or treasuries if exports to the U.S. fall – to say nothing of their ability to wage and all-out currency war against the dollar. But so far, at least the dollar is getting stronger in foreign exchange markets. What are we missing?

Gerald Celente: Well, I think what people are missing is they're making too much of a deal of the trade war. It's every day. It's almost become stupidity with the business media. Every day they're going, “the market goes up because trade wars eased. The market’s down because trade fear is increased.” I mean, come on. What are they kidding? I mean, the world is bigger than that. Even what you saw car sales start slumping in China, the headlines blamed the trade wars. Does the average person give a damn about a trade war? They're buying what they're buying, they got what they got. If they don't have it, they don't spend it. If they have it, they spend it. They don't know what's going on behind the scenes and the details of a trade war. The media has dumbed down so much… it's every day. It's one excuse. And as far as the dollar going up, it's interest rates.

I mean, the United States is raising interest rates. You're looking at what, even with the United States raising interest rates, what are you looking at the overnight, the Fed funds rate? 1.75 to two? And what is it 1.5 in Canada and the U.K. Negative interest rates in Europe and the European Union. Negative in Denmark. Negative in Sweden. Negative in Japan. I mean, it's ridiculous. So what I'm saying, Mike is that the markets cannot take a rate increase. That's why the currencies are going down. And matter of fact, we just heard from the number two guy in China, Lee, saying that to think that the Chinese, he said, want to devalue our currency is ridiculous. He said we're not going to make up that much more trade on having our currency decline. Because by the same token, you look at China, what are they the largest importer of energy in the world? And now the Yuan is going down, and oil prices are going up. Oh, and what are oil prices based on? Petrodollars. So now as their currency declines, they got to input more energy. And it's based in dollars, as the dollar gets stronger, they don't want this to happen.

So to me it's a lot of misinformation out there. And again, I'm no Trump fan. I mean, I think the guy is ridiculous on a lot of stuff. But the media is so anti Trump that they'll keep using one play a day, and overlooking the bigger story.

Full Podcast here: https://goo.gl/9oqzzB

September 20 2018

moneymetals

September 19 2018

moneymetals

Which Precious Metals Are Likely To Be Better Investments During The Next Market Crash?

The question on the minds of many investors, is which of the precious metals will be better investments during the next market crash? I should know because I receive this question in my email box quite often. So, I decided to test the price action of several metals and how each traded during a large market correction.

This article will focus on the top four precious metals, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium. Even though Rhodium and other metals are considered precious, the ones listed above take the lion’s share of the investment market. Furthermore, while platinum and palladium are purchased as investments, they have a much larger industrial component than gold or silver.

As I have mentioned many times, gold and silver disconnected from the broader markets when the Dow Jones Index fell 2,000 points in the first six weeks of 2016.

The two reasons I believe gold and silver jumped considerably as the markets sold off at the beginning of 2016 were:

  1. Gold and Silver were extremely oversold, and the Commercial hedgers’ short positions were at a low, thus very bullish
  2. Investors were extremely worried that the Dow Jones and markets were beginning a massive correction, so they moved into both gold and silver

To explain why investors were spooked in 2016, we need to look at the following chart:

Dow jones (september 14, 2018)

Typically during a major correction, the market makes several attempts at a top. In 2007, there were three tops made before the market finally came down in 2008. Then in 2015, we had three more tops and two large corrections. The reason investors’ worry turned into fear at the beginning of 2016 was that the last top did not reach the previous 18,000 level.

Full Article: https://goo.gl/asrgNh

moneymetals

Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed

“Just run the presses – print money.”

That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

Trump disputes many of the anecdotes Woodward assembled. But regardless of whether the President used those exact words, they do reflect an “easy money” philosophy that he has expressed many times before.

Trump Likes Low Rates, Loose Money

President Trump has described himself as a “low interest rate person.”

Trump and the federal reserve

This past summer, Trump launched a very public attack on the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. He wants it to stop because it’s making the dollar “too strong” and threatening to undercut his tax cut fiscal stimulus.

There’s only so much dollar strength the U.S. economy and U.S. debt and equity markets can take. President Trump is keenly aware of the risks.

A Fed rate hike next week is a given at this point.

The Trump-versus-Fed feud will likely heat up again in December if the central bank raises its benchmark short-term rate at its scheduled policy meeting. Although a December hike is far from certain, Fed chair Jay Powell and company seem intent on raising interest rates again – and possibly a couple more times in 2019 if the markets don’t melt down before then.

Additional tightening will increasingly put the central bank on the wrong side of the President’s Twitter feed. If Donald J. Trump wants to put more than social media pressure on Fed officials, he can threaten to remove them.

Trump himself appointed Powell, a decision he now apparently regrets. It would be unprecedented for a president to fire a Fed chairman before his term is up... but not necessarily inconceivable. After all, President Trump has done a number of unprecedented things, as the anti-Trump media are wont to remind us.


Read more: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/09/18/trumps-power-play-fed-001619

September 17 2018

moneymetals

A Reader Asks: Should I Sell Gold and Buy Bitcoin?

Although the fervor has diminished substantially since the crypto price smash earlier this year, we do still see a degree interest in bitcoin among precious metals investors.

Question and answer

Bitcoin and metals arguably share some appeal as an “honest” alternative and as a hedge against the fiat dollar and the insolvent U.S. government which backs it.

In light of the bitcoin price falling dramatically this year, one reader asked, “Is now a good time to swap gold for bitcoin?” Below is our response.

It may be bad form to answer a question with another question, but it seems like a good way to approach this subject. So we ask; are you in the mood to gamble? If you are, it might make sense to swap some metal for bitcoin.

Cryptocurrency can potentially generate bigger returns... in exchange for bigger risk. Since there is no tangible backing to bitcoin, it could conceivably go to zero – much like shares in a defunct “dot com” company.

The two assets are far from interchangeable and will serve different purposes in your portfolio. Bitcoin has often been called “digital gold,” but that comparison is dangerously wrong. Gold is a reliable store of value with a track record thousands of years long. Bitcoin’s price has collapsed from its all-time high of nearly $20,000 to $6,000.

This is a vital difference between gold and bitcoin: gold will always retain some intrinsic value, while the price of a digital token might go all the way to zero. That is not our prediction for bitcoin. It is, however, a possibility.

A technology, which is one way to think of bitcoin, must hold its value amongst a growing number of alternatives. If it cannot, it will be replaced. That happens, even to leaders. Remember Napster and CompuServe?

Continue Reading: https://goo.gl/EHsJYV


September 14 2018

moneymetals

Gold vs. Bitcoin

Since its introduction in 2009, bitcoin has taken the financial world by storm.

The enormous gains in bitcoin’s value are attracting attention around the world, both positive and negative. People ranging from everyday consumers to central bankers now have an eye on the digital currency.

Some remain skeptical. Several high-profile hacks in which tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of bitcoin were stolen from bitcoin exchanges have raised doubts that a purely digital asset can ever be secured. Others wonder if money without official government backing and no physical manifestation can really succeed.

On the other hand, many see bitcoin as the future of money – destined to end run banks and governments and the fiat currency systems they control.

What is Bitcoin?

what is bitcoinBitcoin is a peer-to-peer, decentralized, digital currency with more than 10 million holders as of this writing. The lure of decentralization, lower transaction fees, and pseudo-anonymity has fostered adoption around the world. And people are increasingly looking for alternatives as central banks around the world continue to abuse national currencies.

There is a particular concern regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s perpetual devaluation of its Federal Reserve Notes – commonly known as dollars. Although it is no longer a true dollar, which was historically defined in terms of a certain amount of silver, today’s U.S. dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. And Fed officials recognize no limits in terms of how many dollars can be created.

​Check it out here: 
https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/bitcoin-vs-gold


August 21 2018

moneymetals

Spot Prices Are Falling, But Premiums Are on the Rise

Gold and silver premiums – the price dealers add to the melt value of an item to cover manufacturing and overhead – began climbing in the past two weeks.

Many clients see falling gold and silver spot prices as an opportunity to buy, but some are disappointed to find the premium for the item they want is suddenly higher, negating some of the price drop.

The challenge they face is that lots of other bargain hunters are trying to jump on the same opportunity.

Supply & demand

Premiums are very sensitive to supply and demand in the retail market for finished coins, bars, and rounds, and the reasons are pretty straightforward.

First, when prices drop, retail bullion investors stop selling and start buying. That has a profound effect on the availability of resale, or secondary market, product inventory.

The large quantities coins, bars, and rounds coming back to market in the past year or two have driven premiums to the extraordinarily low levels we saw recently. Now, supply from the secondary market is drying up fast.

Second, there are only a few mints and refiners making coins, bars, and rounds. Like any manufacturer, they gear production to market demand. Scaling up takes a bit of time, and it isn’t something most will do without first developing some confidence that the higher demand will persist.

​Continue reading: https://goo.gl/cRFcUF​

August 20 2018

moneymetals

Dr. Engelhardt: Economy Beholden to Fed Interest Rate Policy; Here's One Way Gold Could Reach $14,000+...

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Lucas Engelhardt associate professor of economics at Kent State University. Dr. Engelhardt is an Austrian economist who has been a guest lecturer at the Mises Institute and in his teaching specializes in macro-economics in the examination of the business cycle, and it's certainly a real pleasure to have him on with us today. Lucas, thanks so much for taking the time and welcome.

Dr. Lucas Engelhardt: Well thank you for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, I'm excited to have you on today because there is a lot to discuss with you. For starters I think a good place to begin is the business cycle. Now, but before we get into the misunderstandings that the Keynesians seems to have about this, explain the business cycle if you would and why it's important in order to have a proper understanding of monetary policy.

Dr. Lucas Engelhardt: Sure. Now, as you mentioned, I come from the Austrian economic framework. And Austrian economics describes the business cycle as the consequence of manipulations happening in the money supply, specifically in credit markets. So starting from that point, so how the business cycle happens is that we have somebody in the banking system. We know in modern America it would be the Federal Reserve is generally responsible for this. Decides to push down interest rates, normally to stimulate the economy.

Austrians, we definitely do not deny that this actually does work for a while. That the lower interest rate does actually encourage investment, especially in very long structures of production. The types of things that won't pay off maybe for five, 10, or even more years. We see lots of research and development, lots of construction, these types of things happening when interest rates get pushed down.

The problem is that the way that the Fed pushes interest rates down, as I suspect most of your listeners know, is by adding additional money into the economy through the banking system. Eventually this money gets out into the economy and prices start going up. You have more money, the money loses value, the flip side of that is that prices are higher. It takes more money to buy anything.

Now, there are a couple ways this can go. The central bank could just ignore this fact and continue with the low interest rate policy, just pumping out more and more money to the point where the money is worthless. We see that happen right throughout history, and we see that happening today in places like Venezuela. Now, what the Fed has done historically most of the time is get nervous about this rise in prices and start tamping back on the increase in the money supply. Of course, as soon as they do that interest rates go up. Once interest rates go up, all these investments that looked great when interest rates were low, that research and development, building new houses and what have you, stop looking as good.

So, we see all of these areas that expanded then start contracting, and that's where we see the bust of the business cycle come in. We see there it's really all centered on what the Federal Reserve in modern America is doing in interest rates.

Mike Gleason: Now, you come at things from an Austrian viewpoint as you mentioned. I'm curious if sometimes you feel like a lone wolf in the wilderness, because nearly everyone in the mainstream financial world and among the central bankers and central planners throughout the globe seems to have that Keynesian mindset where government and a tight management of monetary policy is the answer to every economic problem. So, why is it dangerous in your view, expand the point if you would about a centrally planned economy instead of letting the free market forces dictate things. What are they so afraid of?

Full podcast here: https://goo.gl/dUWCp8​

August 17 2018

moneymetals

For Sterling (Silver) Results, Repetition of the Basics Is Worth Its Weight in Gold

Whenever you encounter a "sticking point" in some activity – any activity in which you are engaged – it always helps if you "return to the basics."

Sure you may "know" what they are, but do you really follow them? Ask an expert in most any field of endeavor, and he/she will tell you the same thing.

The basics that lead to outsized results are still around and followed for a reason – because they work! Take the idea of building up a comfortable position in precious metals...

You've decided that you either want to start "stacking" – or adding more to your current holdings. You look at the charts and see that prices are falling, and others are fearful. You're not interested in "buying the bottom." You're looking to build a foundational position into that bottom.

From experience you know that "going against the crowd" and buying when metals are "on sale" has been working since at least 2002, when gold was under $300 an ounce and Silver was below $5 the ounce.

Even at today's prices, gold and silver are still up 400% and 300% respectively.

Gold price has crushed the market so far this century

After reconfirming your understanding and belief that precious metals have remained as a store of value for thousands of years will continue to do so, you move closer to acting on that belief.

Revisit your tolerance for risk, the financial means available, your holding time outlook, and how much you're willing to pay per ounce.

Check out the article here: 

August 16 2018

moneymetals

How Gold & Silver Will Trade During The Next Market Crash

While many investors believe the gold and silver price will crash during the next market meltdown, I see a much different outcome. Yes, it is true that the metals may sell off initially in the beginning, but I believe gold and silver will disconnect from the broader markets and move up much higher.

The reason I see the precious metals disconnecting from the broader markets during the next major correction is due to the much different setup today in the gold and silver market than it was in 2008.Precious metals investors forget just how overvalued the gold and silver prices were based on technical analysis. Of course, I am not talking about the true “Store of value” properties of the precious metals, but rather, how they trade in reference to the market in general.

As I have stated many times, the paper trading market determines the price of gold and silver, not the physical buyer. Thus, the paper market will continue to control the gold and silver prices until investors realize the dollar is just another worthless fiat currency.

In my newest video, How Will Gold & Silver Trade During The Next Market Crash, I use a few indicators to explain why I don’t see a huge crash in the gold and silver prices during the next major market correction:


In the video, I discuss how the broader markets are setting up for a significant correction lower while the precious metals are behaving more like a coiled spring. Although, in the initial stages of market meltdown, we could see a broad-based selloff across all markets. However, the technical analysis suggests that the gold and silver prices are much closer to a bottom than a top.

Furthermore, another indicator, the Gold Hedgers Chart also provides more evidence that gold is become oversold, rather than overbought:

Gold hedgers position

The gold short hedge position is now back to almost the same level as it was at the beginning of 2016 when gold was trading below $1,100 an ounce. This chart shows that when the gold hedgers position moves back towards the zero line, then the gold price is forming a bottom.


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