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July 10 2018

moneymetals

How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash

Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.

However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.

War on cash

It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.

That fact may be a greater reason for alarm than the prospect of a dollar collapse. But it gets far less consideration.

Wall Street banks and government regulators have teamed up against your liberty and your privacy.

Officials would like to track 100% of what you do with your money, and the banks would like to charge a fee on 100% of those transactions. Those motivations are at the root of the today’s war on cash – the push to eliminate paper cash and replace it with electronic transactions.

The Bank Secrecy Act will soon turn 20 years old. Banks have filed millions of secret Suspicious Activity Reports on transactions involving cash. And Americans performing a transaction involving more than $10,000 in cash may have an IRS Form 8300 documenting their transaction filed with the federal government.

Americans trying to transact privately with cash are being watched, and they have no idea how closely.

​Continue reading: ​
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/07/09/not-become-a-casualty-in-war-on-cash-001571

June 13 2018

moneymetals

WHY HARRY DENT’S $400 FORECAST FOR GOLD IS WRONG…. Price Is Heading Up Much Higher

Harry Dent has been making the rounds suggesting that for gold to get back to its pre-bubble price, it would need to fall to $400 or $450. If we were to believe Mr. Dent, then it would be bad news for gold investors. However, Harry Dent’s gold price forecast is quite faulty because he fails to consider the most critical factor.

Harry Dent has become well-known on the internet for his $750 gold price forecast. He bases a low gold price upon what he calls “The end of the Commodity Super-Cycle.” Dent sees nothing but massive deflation ahead. Thus this will cause the gold price to fall along with all commodities.

Unfortunately for Dent, his gold price forecast is incorrect because he fails to incorporate the Falling EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) and energy into his analysis. Dent, like many in the financial industry, believes in the “Energy Tooth Fairy” (a term coined by Louis Arnoux). What I mean by the Energy Tooth Fairy is the notion that economy will continue to grow forever because plenty of cheap energy will always be available. Thus, economic and business cycles, forecasted by Dent, will also continue forever.

Before I explain in detail why Dent is totally wrong on his $400 gold price forecast, here he is in a recent interview on Kitco:

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62jrl_irLzs)


Dent makes several forecasts in the interview, but his price target for gold is the most startling for precious metals investors. He says gold is heading for $650-$750, but that is just the first target. Dent then says, “Ultimately for gold to erase its bubble and get back to its bubble origin, it would be $400-$450. Once gold hits $400 or $450, then Dent would be a buyer.

I gather Dent is suggesting that gold became a bubble in 2004 when it went above $400 an ounce:

Gold price 20 year chart june 11 2018

As we can see in the chart above, the gold price never fell below $1,050 since the 2008 Financial Meltdown. Is Harry Dent suggesting that the gold price will drop another $600 from its low of $1,050 in 2015??




May 21 2018

moneymetals

Federal Reserve Note Dances Upon Its Own Grave

Practically nobody enters the foreign exchange markets looking to buy and hold. Currency trading is generally a short-term game, and there isn’t much regard for analysis of the longer-term fundamentals.

That much is evident given the ongoing rally in the Federal Reserve Note dollar, despite its outlook being downright grim.

Depreciating dollar

Nobody should be fooled by recent outperformance relative to the currencies of other insolvent nations.

The greenback is in the worst shape of its life.

Sound money advocates are already well versed as to why the dollar has been losing purchasing power ever since the Federal Reserve took control of its fortunes more than a century ago. They understand the implications of perpetually rising federal deficits and debt.

The most recent decade, during which federal borrowing has begun growing exponentially, indicates we are much closer to the end of the cycle – insolvency and default – than we are to the beginning. But it isn’t the only indication that we are approaching the end-game.

The Federal Reserve Note’s hegemony in the global oil trade is starting to fall apart. Russia, China, and other BRIC nations are cutting deals to buy and sell oil using other currencies.

We can now add the EU to the list of potential defectors.

​Continue reading (source) ​

May 07 2018

moneymetals

Gold & Silver Eagle Sales Drop Sharply Due To Central Bank Intervention

Thanks to the Fed and Central bank intervention, sales of Gold and Silver Eagle sales declined sharply over the past year. Yes, it’s true… precious metals investors have lost interest in gold and silver as the stocks, real estate, and crypto markets reached new highs in 2017. So, who wants to continue purchasing gold and silver when many cryptocurrencies were experiencing 10% increases in a day.

Historians will look back at 2017 as the year that asset prices went utterly insane. Of course, the cryptomarket enjoyed the highest gains compared to most assets, but many stocks hit bubble territory last year as well.

Here is a small list of Big Gaining Assets in 2017:

  1. Dow Jones = +26%
  2. Nasdaq = +29%
  3. Netflix = +55%
  4. Amazon = +67%
  5. Caterpillar = +73%
  6. Bitcoin = +1,500%+

Now, let’s look at the gold and silver price increases in 2017:

  1. Silver = +6%
  2. Gold = +14%

While gold did go up more than double silver last year, many investors became frustrated with the metals and turned to making big gains in stocks and cryptos. Furthermore, the motivation to protect wealth by purchasing precious metals didn’t seem to matter anymore because the Dow Jones Index is supposedly going to 50,000 and Bitcoin, $100,000. So, with these sorts of gains in the future, why on earth would anyone want to buy precious metals?

Investors and the public today have become totally irrational. Also, no one wants to work anymore. Instead, we rather put $5,000 in Bitcoin or the other 1,500 cryptos so we can retire to Tahiti with our massive Blockchain profits. Furthermore, if we watch some of the videos by the crypto aficionados, that is precisely what they are doing… well, at least on a temporary vacation basis. Nothing like learning about cryptos from someone sitting on the beach drinking cocktails.

And, if an individual isn’t making $millions in cryptos, then the next best thing is the exponentially rising stock prices today to make money hand over fist. If an investor was smart enough and invested a mere $10,000 in Amazon at the low of $50 in 2009, they would be holding on to $300,000. Yes, I realize this isn’t like making $millions in the cryptos, but not everyone can be a millionaire.

Continue reading... (source

April 11 2018

moneymetals

FRAGILE NATURE OF CURRENCIES: Why Gold & Silver Are High-Quality Stores Of Value

As the U.S. and global economy speed towards the Seneca Cliff, very few individuals understand the fragile nature of currencies. Today, we use the lightning speed of the digital banking system to make our purchases at the store or online. It has become seemingly natural to buy groceries at the swipe of a card. Only a small percentage of purchases are made with cash… paper money.

However, our high-tech digital banking system is built upon a highly complex system that consumes a massive amount of energy just to maintain business as usual. There’s this notion that technology will grow exponentially while at the same time making our lives easier. TV commercials are showing how individuals today have more power at their fingertips than entire generations in the past. While this is currently true, I can assure you; we are not heading into a high-tech world where robots do everything for us.

Unfortunately, due to the rapidly Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment and the thermodynamics of resource depletion, we are heading into a future with much less technology and a great deal more human labor. I know, it sounds insane to say that, but it’s true. Human labor and human farming have a much higher EROI than any technology used today.

Continue to the full article (source

February 12 2018

moneymetals

Reckless Deficit Spending by Congress Set to Wreck the Dollar

U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week.

Hiked rates

If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began.

Most currently expect the FOMC to continue with hikes at about the same pace set in 2017. They have gotten away with several hikes, but attempting several more will be harder for them.

The question is whether the Fed’s tolerance for pain is any higher under new chairman Jerome Powell. We’d wager that it won’t take much in the way of flagging stock prices and slowing growth to have them reversing course and punching the stimulus button.

No one should bet that last week’s rally in the dollar means the bottom is in. The next few years look downright terrifying for the greenback. Here are some factors to consider:

  • Congressional Republicans embarrassed themselves last week by proving the lip service they pay toward fiscal conservatism is nothing but lies. The Republican leadership shepherded through $300 billion in additional spending. Furthermore, they once again completely suspended the limit on borrowing;
  • The Treasury will be issuing staggering amounts of new debt to fund the Congressional spending spree. Last fall’s tax cut may be good news for taxpayers, but it will also magnify federal deficits. Net new debt in 2018 is expected to be $1.3 trillion – the highest since 2010!
  • President Trump will soon begin the push for a trillion-dollar infrastructure program. That will almost certainly be paid for with additional borrowing.
  • The creditworthiness of the U.S. is once again back in the news. Rating agency Moody’s raised the idea of a downgrade for U.S. debt last week.

​Continue reading (source)​

February 05 2018

moneymetals

January 29 2018

moneymetals

Precious Metals Markets Outlook 2018

The first trading days of 2018 are confirming signs of renewed investor interest in the precious metals sector after a long period of malaise.

Gold bull

Gold and silver markets entered the year with some stealth momentum after quietly posting gains late in 2017. Gold finished the year above $1,300/oz. – its best yearly close since 2012.

Over the past five years, the yellow metal has been basing out in a range between $1,050 and $1,400. A push above $1,400 later this year would therefore be significant.

It would get momentum traders and mainstream financial reporters to take notice.

The alternative investing world was enthralled by Bitcoin in 2017. While we don’t expect a Bitcoin-like mania to take hold in precious metals in 2018, we do expect gold and silver markets to make some noise.

Stimulus to Push Up Commodity Prices Again

Even as the Federal Reserve vows to continue raising its benchmark interest rate and “normalizing” its balance sheet, a flood of new fiat stimulus is set to hit the economy. The recently passed tax cuts will cause hundreds of billions – perhaps eventually trillions – of dollars to be repatriated back to the United States.

Continue reading (source)

January 22 2018

moneymetals

For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage

Two years ago in this space, I penned an essay discussing how Americans - and other countries that are "dollarized" - where the local currency is either the USD or pegged to it - had a significant advantage when it came to getting the most for their money when exchanging dollars for precious metals.

Lately I looked into this issue again and the good news is - it's still a good deal. In relation to a lot of other folks, even better than before! But the bad news is that this might not be the case much longer...

The Cando Disadvantage

The Canadian Dollar is known in the trade as a "Cando". In 2008 it traded at US$1.10, which meant that at the time, Canadians could buy 10% more metal than Americans. In 2012 it had a high of US$1.01. In 2016 it bottomed at US$0.58 (ouch!), and today still trades at about 80 cents on the dollar. As the chart shows, Canadians get about 20% less gold and silver for their money than their southern neighbors (us).

Continue reading.. (source)

December 22 2017

moneymetals

David Smith: Cryptos Bringing Broad Attention to All Dollar Alternatives

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

David smith

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back David Smith, Senior Analyst at The Morgan Report and regular contributor to MoneyMetals.com. David, Merry Christmas, and thanks for joining us again. How are you?

David Smith: Very good Mike, and thank you and the very same to you and yours.

Mike Gleason: Well, as we start out here, David, let's talk first about the setup as we finish up 2017 and move into the new year. There are a lot of similarities to last year, maybe the year before. We've had the Fed just announce a rate hike. The move was well telegraphed and all the selling in the metals happened prior to last week's FOMC meeting. Open interest in the futures got pretty extended about a month ago, and as often happens in that scenario, the speculative long buyers were taken out to the wood shed and punished as the bullion banks cashed in on their shorts. Now we're seeing a bit of a rally in the metals, so the situation in these regards is very similar to a year ago. What are you expecting from the metals markets in the weeks and months ahead? Are you looking for a rally to match last year's?

David Smith: I really think that we could be looking at a very similar set up to 2016 where the metals actually bottomed in December, and the mining stocks tried to put a lower low in in mid-January. And I'll never forget it, January 19th, and on an inter-day basis, they turned around, and then it was up and away for the metals and the miners for the next six months.

Then between then and now they gave back about 50% of it, which is what you'd expect on a retracement, and nobody can predict the future exactly, but I really feel pretty strongly that we're going to see a very strong, right out of the box, in January, on the metals and miners, and it may even turn before the new year, but there's so many technical indicators themselves, that when you add them all up, they become something larger, and so I think if a person is waiting to purchase their metal, they shouldn't be waiting too much longer if they had the same view I do.

And not only that, as you know, when the demand starts ramping up pretty quickly, the premiums go up too, so you would have a double whammy against you, buying at a higher price and paying a higher premium if you wait until a lot of other people kind of get the same idea.

Mike Gleason: Yeah, certainly a buyers’ market right now, both in terms of low spot prices, and also the premiums, as you mentioned. And the last couple years, we have had pretty strong, right of the gate, moves there in the metals and the miners, and maybe 2018 is going to have the same thing.

Now in your most recent article that we published this week in MoneyMetals.com, you make the case for physical metals and cryptocurrencies to coexist. Now we think that is a vitally important idea right now as people are working through questions about what the advent of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will mean for gold and silver. It would be pretty easy for people to look at price charts and leap to the conclusion that metals are quickly becoming irrelevant. The reality is that the times we live in are desperately calling for honest money and that both cryptocurrency and metals both have important roles to play. They have very different strengths and weaknesses, however, so talk for a minute, David, about how these two asset classes are likely to coexist.

Read/Listen to the entire podcast here: (source)

December 18 2017

moneymetals

Money Metals Exchange Is Also Your Crypto/Metals HQ

Inline image 1

Money Metals Exchange began accepting Bitcoin payments for gold and silver bullion nearly 3 years ago, putting us among the very first in our industry to do so.

Today, we are announcing expanded services – both when buying and selling precious metals – using several crypto-currencies.

We believe honest money is core to liberating people and protecting their savings. History is clear as to how the game of unrestrained government borrowing, printing, and spending will end. The holders of the world’s fiat currencies will wind up holding the bag.

Crypto-Currencies

There can be no doubt that tangible, off-the-grid, gold and silver – which feature zero counterparty risk – will have a key role to play in the future, just as they have in the past. It may well be that crypto-currencies will also have a role to play.

Crypto-currencies provide a method of sending payments anywhere in the world, without permission and with little cost. It is possible to do so securely and privately, without relying upon bankers as middlemen.

If Bitcoin, or one or more of the alternatives, can solve scaling problems, it could be a revolution in which individuals and liberty are the victors.

Our clients have long been able to make payment for metals using Bitcoin at MoneyMetals.com, as noted above. But that is just the start. Very soon we will be able to accept online payments in Bitcoin Cash and other major crypto-currencies.

But we can already do a much larger variety of crypto-currency transactions with clients who call us rather than order online.


Continue reading.. (source

December 04 2017

moneymetals

Gerald Celente: Middle East Wild Cards Could Bring Down Markets, Drive Up Gold

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Gerald celente

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for taking the time and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Thanks for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, to start off here, we still have the equities markets ripping and roaring and there is seemingly no news that can derail the train. So, as we head into the end of the year, what does your forecast show for the crowd on Wall Street? Is the party going to end anytime soon?

Gerald Celente: Well, as they go through with this tax deal, it's just going to bring more money to the bigger corporations and you saw what the corporations have done with the profits from the past, what do they do with them? They reinvested them into the stock market rather than building their companies and investing in capital improvements.

So, giving them more money will give them more stock buybacks. The more stock buybacks, the higher the market goes. I mean that's the reality of it. So, if the tax breaks go through the way they're being planned, we're going to see more stock buybacks, more cheap money to reinvest back into the markets.

Again, we're looking at a very small segment of the population that's really playing the markets. For example, only 10% of Americans are in the markets at the range that makes any difference, so that 10%, for example, that's playing, they have about in equity about $350,000 (on average). The rest of society that has money into it, the so called middle class, of those that have any money in it, and again the 10% own over 90%. For the rest of the society, they only have about $15,000 in equity.

So, the markets are just going to keep going up if the cheap money keeps existing. Again, that's going to also see what happens when they raise interest rates, which are about a 99% sure shot now, later in December. And if the cheap money flows stop, then the markets stop. It's as simple as that, but we don't think a 25 basis point increase is going to have much of an impact.

Mike Gleason: Clearly the world has a problem with crooked bankers and corrupt politicians. We talked about this a bit when we had you on back in August. The two aren't unrelated, of course. Bankers and politicians have a very long and dark history of collusion.

On one hand, if history is a guide, there isn't much reason to expect anyone will be held to account for their crimes. "They are too big to jail," as former Attorney General Eric Holder might say. On the other hand, we can't help but be a little bit hopeful. It looks to us like some of these crimes, such as the Uranium One deal, are getting harder to ignore.

What do you make of the recent news? Are you feeling any more optimistic about some of these crooks actually going to prison?

Gerald Celente: No, quite the opposite. Look at the new Fed chair that's coming in. He's already saying that the banking regulations in place now are too tough and tough enough. So, if under the current regulations nobody went to jail and they soften them, they could steal more, and get fined, and also accused of less crimes.

So, no, it's going in the opposite direction. Under the new administration, they're not draining the swamp, they’re just filling the swamp with different swamp creatures. I mean look at the Trump White House. Who's running it? Mnuchin and Cohn on the financial end and those are both Goldman Sachs guys. It's just more of the same.

Mike Gleason: The rise of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in particular, is making waves in the precious metals markets. Some of the demand for gold and silver has been diverted to Bitcoin. People see it as another form of honest money and there is plenty of excitement over the huge price gains. Lots of people are wondering what the rise of Bitcoin might mean for precious metals over the longer term.

Now, our take is that Bitcoin offer hope as honest money and we are certainly fans of anything that can circumvent central bankers. Gold and silver, on the other hand, are proven stores of value with a track record extending back thousands of years and they are totally off the grid. Physical metals work with or without electricity or an internet connection and they can be used without leaving digital tracks behind.

What are your thoughts on the relationship between Bitcoin and bullion?

Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source

November 29 2017

moneymetals

November 28 2017

moneymetals

Gold's Global Supply Artery: Heading for Cardiac Arrest

Inline image 1

An oceanic-scale demand push from "all parts Far East" is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come.

China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India's surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country's paper currency), and as an expression of affection. China's newly-emerging affluent middle class alone is set to become larger than the population of the U.S. Frank Holmes collectively refers to these elements as "love and fear trades".

China's One Belt-One Road (OBOR) Initiative – the world's largest-ever construction project – is designed to link 60% of the world's population in a cooperative financial and economic matrix. Taken together, the continued migration of gold supply from West to East is baked into the cake.

For a deeper understanding of how and why China is leading the charge – and going about capturing an outsized portion of the global gold supply – see my essay from last summer, titled China's Get the Gold Plan: Part II.

Even as the West ships much of its remaining gold eastward (largely via Swiss refineries who "repurpose" it into .9999 fine gold), countries like Germany and Turkey have stepped up to the plate, becoming noteworthy demand drivers in their own right.

Fund managers are finally realizing that gold deserves to be a permanent portfolio asset holding category. In The Morgan Report and in Riches in Resources, David Morgan has written extensively about this for both individual investors and institutional clients. Just one more "silent lever" by which a long-term, rock-solid foundation is being built under gold's demand... and price.

Continue to the full article (source)

November 22 2017

moneymetals

November 13 2017

moneymetals

The Dangers of Zero

Inline image 1

Zero is an important number in the psychology driving demand for bullion. There are periods when investors find the argument that gold or silver prices “will never go to zero” compelling.

The 2008 financial crisis and the years immediately following it are the most recent example. The fear of conventional securities and even the fiat dollar becoming worthless was palpable for many in the metals markets. Bullion demand hit record levels.

Left behind

Investors have chased bull markets
for fear of being left behind.

While demand for gold ETFs and futures contracts has been strong in 2016 and 2017, some investors in the physical market for coins, bars, and rounds seem to have overlooked the modest gains of the past two years and are anxious instead to participate in bull markets elsewhere. If they are worried about anything, it is the possibility of missing out.

Gold and silver’s appeal as a safe haven is in temporary eclipse.

The metals markets are awaiting the moment when investors lose their conviction about ever higher stock prices and once again grapple with the idea that prices do fall.

Indeed, the value of some securities can, and does, fall all the way to zero. Companies miss expectations or fail outright. Bond issuers occasionally default and fiat currencies eventually die. Investors discount risk in the euphoria of a bull market.

Continue reading: (source)

November 06 2017

moneymetals

November 03 2017

moneymetals

Bitcoin or Gold: Which One's a Bubble and How Much Energy Do They Really Consume

Inline image 1

If you are investing in either Bitcoin or Gold, it’s important to understand which asset is behaving more like a bubble than the other. While it’s impossible to understand how the market will value these two very different assets in the future, we can provide some logical analysis that might remove some of the mystery associated with the market price of Bitcoin vs Gold.

I’ve read some analysis on Bitcoin profitability and energy consumption that seemed unreliable, so I thought I would put my two cents in on the subject.

For example, many sites are using the Digiconomist’s work on Bitcoin energy consumption. However, I believe this analysis has overstated Bitcoin’s energy consumption by a large degree. According to the Digiconomist, Bitcoin’s annual electric use is approximately 24 TerraWatts per year (TWh/yr):

Digiconomist bitcoin energy consumption

In a recent article that was forwarded to me by one of my readers, How Many Barrels Of Oil Are Needed To Mine One Bitcoin, the author used the information in the chart above to calculate the energy cost to produce each Bitcoin. He stated that the average energy cost for each Bitcoin equals 20 barrels of oil equivalent. Unfortunately, that data is grossly overstated.

Read the full article: (source)

October 20 2017

moneymetals

Gold/Silver vs. Bitcoin Comparisons: A No-Brainer... or Brainless?

For most of the year, as Bitcoin soared, crashed, and soared again, cryptocurrency vs. physical gold-silver talking heads engaged each other in heated rhetoric about which of these venues is here to stay.

Some of the biggest names in finance, government, and the newsletter analyst space have made comments that – to be charitable – appear less-than-fully informed. Comments like "Even though bitcoin could rise to $100,000, it's still going to zero!" don't offer much insight. Some other questionable assumptions:

2017 percent price change comparisons: Relating this year's gold and silver's price range to that of bitcoin misses an important point. Yes, bitcoin (BTC) has risen by a much greater percent, but it's also fallen more. I don't recall gold dropping 40% this year, which bitcoin has... on a couple of occasions.

Bitcoins

Please note: Bitcoin has no tangible, physical form.

Trash-talking gold and silver as "antiquated": Bitcoin is now considered legal tender in Japan, but at this time, its primary function is for use in the purchase and sale of the 900+ "alt coins" currently available.

Most of these exchange entries in the crypto-space are not really "currencies" at all and will never trade as such.

Rather they are "coins" or "tokens" digitally created and circulated to raise seed money, via initial coin offerings (ICOs) in order to solve some business application in a blockchain-connected manner. Many have no trading volume – possibly because the market is skeptical of their business plan – and have become more or less "dead" coins.

At present, a relative few have an actively trading market. Investors have dropped literally millions of dollars into scores, if not hundreds of entrants which have appeared on the scene like dragon's teeth, in many cases only to see volume dry up soon thereafter.

At present, digital apparitions can be created and marketed by just about anyone. The following example demonstrates how easy it is (for now), and how gullible some people really are...

Article Source


October 04 2017

moneymetals
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