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June 13 2018

moneymetals

Some Probing Questions from Customers Like You...

Client communications are a priority for us. If someone calls, we have live people answering the phone and ready to provide service. If you need support by email or by live chat, we respond promptly. This is, of course, good business as it makes for happy customers!

Q & a

However, it is great for another reason. A big part of what we do is provide timely and useful articles and podcasts you can use to stay current on developments which impact the metals markets and your investments. It helps us immensely to know what our clients are thinking about and what questions they have.

Here are a few good questions we’ve seen recently, along with our responses…

Question: What is the best buy currently – bars or sovereign coins?

Answer: Whether it is sovereign coins or bars that represent the “best buy” will depend on what is important to you. In terms of silver, bars (and 1-ounce silver rounds) offer the lowest overall cost per ounce. If “best buy” means “lowest price,” these are the way to go. You can’t go wrong buying the maximum number of ounces for the least amount of money, provided you are getting a quality product made by reputable mints and refiners.

2017 american silver eagle

Premiums on Silver Eagles
are very low by historical standards.
Shop here.

On the other hand, coin premiums are at cycle lows and there is a floor of sorts beneath them. Sovereign mints, unlike private mints and refiners, are not responding to weaker sales by reducing minting charges. Based on our experience, we do not expect them to change course. That likely means coin premiums aren’t headed much lower than they are right now.

People who prefer buying official, legal-tender coins for their recognizability and popularity should consider grabbing some now.

Customers who want to speculate on coin premiums, might also want to exploit today’s conditions.

In recent years, we’ve seen premiums on the silver American Eagle at more than twice the current level. Chances are that will happen again the next time demand spikes, giving returns on those items an extra boost.

Source: (
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/06/13/gold-bars-or-sovereign-coins-001551
​)​

moneymetals

WHY HARRY DENT’S $400 FORECAST FOR GOLD IS WRONG…. Price Is Heading Up Much Higher

Harry Dent has been making the rounds suggesting that for gold to get back to its pre-bubble price, it would need to fall to $400 or $450. If we were to believe Mr. Dent, then it would be bad news for gold investors. However, Harry Dent’s gold price forecast is quite faulty because he fails to consider the most critical factor.

Harry Dent has become well-known on the internet for his $750 gold price forecast. He bases a low gold price upon what he calls “The end of the Commodity Super-Cycle.” Dent sees nothing but massive deflation ahead. Thus this will cause the gold price to fall along with all commodities.

Unfortunately for Dent, his gold price forecast is incorrect because he fails to incorporate the Falling EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) and energy into his analysis. Dent, like many in the financial industry, believes in the “Energy Tooth Fairy” (a term coined by Louis Arnoux). What I mean by the Energy Tooth Fairy is the notion that economy will continue to grow forever because plenty of cheap energy will always be available. Thus, economic and business cycles, forecasted by Dent, will also continue forever.

Before I explain in detail why Dent is totally wrong on his $400 gold price forecast, here he is in a recent interview on Kitco:

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62jrl_irLzs)


Dent makes several forecasts in the interview, but his price target for gold is the most startling for precious metals investors. He says gold is heading for $650-$750, but that is just the first target. Dent then says, “Ultimately for gold to erase its bubble and get back to its bubble origin, it would be $400-$450. Once gold hits $400 or $450, then Dent would be a buyer.

I gather Dent is suggesting that gold became a bubble in 2004 when it went above $400 an ounce:

Gold price 20 year chart june 11 2018

As we can see in the chart above, the gold price never fell below $1,050 since the 2008 Financial Meltdown. Is Harry Dent suggesting that the gold price will drop another $600 from its low of $1,050 in 2015??




June 11 2018

moneymetals

Why are Gold/Silver Premiums SO Darn Low Right Now?

The bullion markets have undergone a shift in recent months. Prices may be range-bound, but there has been a transition from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market. Our goal, as always, is to keep our readers and clients apprised of developments and answer your questions.

Question: Why don’t spot prices for gold and silver respond to bullish news events or fundamentals in the physical market?

Answer: Physical supply and demand don’t necessarily impact the “spot” prices for gold and silver set in the futures markets on a day-to-day basis.

Take a hypothetical situation where some geopolitical event has investors running for safety. Lots of people decide to buy gold. Unfortunately, many of these investors will foolishly turn to gold futures.

As demand spikes in the futures markets, the bullion banks stand ready to meet the new demand with freshly printed digital contracts. This new supply of gold derivatives is scooped up by eager buyers even though not a single physical bar is added to any inventory. Their digital receipt which purports to represent gold is, in fact, almost completely unbacked.

The geopolitical event may drive plenty of demand, but the impact on price will be muted, and perhaps eliminated entirely.

Question: I noticed that premiums have fallen significantly compared to two years ago. Why has this occurred?

Extremely low prices

Answer: When demand for coins, rounds, and bars outstrips the physical inventory held by dealers, premiums will start rising as dealers bid aggressively for inventory.

This dynamic drove premiums sharply higher a number of times between 2008 and 2016. This part is telling; the futures markets can, and often do, signal the exact opposite of what is happening in the bullion markets where supply and demand are actually balanced through price. Between 2011 and 2015, spot prices were in decline, but that was a period of unprecedented demand for physical coins, rounds, and bars.

Today, this dynamic is working in reverse. Retail bullion investors in the U.S. (but not worldwide) have been more inclined to sell.

They seem optimistic that President Donald Trump and his policies will solve many problems. Some are frustrated by the returns in the metals markets and seek better performance elsewhere. Dealers are buying lots more inventory from the retail public than they did a couple years back, and this glut in supply has caused premiums to fall as a result.

We view this period of relatively low spot prices AND extraordinarily low premiums on physical gold and silver items as the best sort of environment to buy, not sell. But for those wishing to sell, Money Metals also offers the best prices.

Article Source: 
(https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/06/11/why-are-gold-silver-premiums-so-low-001549)

May 21 2018

moneymetals

Why Gold Is The King Monetary Asset, Not Bitcoin


There seems to be a lot of misinformation being peddled on the internet about gold and bitcoin. One major misconception is the notion that bitcoin will replace gold as a monetary instrument. Some analysts, once stanch precious metals advocates now turned crypto aficionados, believe in such theories that there is too much gold in the world to be used as money or that it is now just a barbarous relic. Just a year or so ago, these same supposed analysts were criticizing the Mainstream media financial network talking heads for calling gold as a barbarous relic, but now have jumped on the bandwagon.

Well, in one small way, who can blame them. It has been frustrating holding onto gold and silver patiently waiting for their inevitable rise. So, when Bitcoin and the crypto prices moved up exponentially last year, promising investors vast riches in the future, it was easy for many to drop the precious metals and move into the crypto market. The mindset today is to make lots of money doing nothing. Thus, it’s not surprising to see many fall into this delusion and way of thinking.

A few of the crypto aficionados tell their followers that gold can’t be a monetary asset because there are millions of tons of gold hidden in secret vaults or that there are billions of ounces locked away in the Grand Canyon. While this may sound like quite an interesting conspiracy, there is no sound evidence to back it up. To believe in these fanciful conspiracies defies all logic. However, with logic being in short supply currently, I am not surprised that many believe in these fairy tales.

One of these ex-precious metals, now a highly qualified cryptoanalyst, suggested in a recent video that the “Gold is owned by the Bankers” so why would you want to own gold? Unfortunately, this is a false statement. While the Central banks own a lot of gold, it’s a lot less than what the private investors and jewelry owners hold. According to the World Gold Council, jewelry accounted for the largest stocks of above ground gold at 90,700 metric tons (mt), followed by 40,000 mt of private investment, 32,600 mt of Central bank holdings and 26,700 mt of Industrial usage and other:

Total world gold holdings 2017

Of the total 190,000 mt of the world above ground gold stocks, jewelry consists of 48%, private investment 21%, Central bank 17%, and Industrial and other at 14% (Source: World Gold Council – Total above-ground stocks 2017) So, if we realize that nearly half of all above-ground gold stocks are in the form of jewelry, and then another 21% is owned by private investors, Central banks DO NOT own most of the gold. Even if we compare private investment to Official holdings, private investors own more gold than Central banks.



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May 17 2018

moneymetals

Turkish Gold Imports Triple As The Central Bank Diversifies Out Of Dollars

Turkish gold imports surged due to a sharp increase in investment demand as well as renewed Central bank purchases. While the Chinese and Russian governments have been adding gold to their official reserves over the past several years, Turkey added 86 metric tons to its official holdings in the last seven months of 2017.

According to the 2018 World Gold Survey, Turkish official gold holdings reached a new record high of 565 metric tons (mt) last year as the government decided to replace a significant amount of its Dollar reserves with gold. And, this continued even in the first quarter of 2018. Information from the World Gold Council’s Demand Trend reported that Turkey added another 30 mt of gold to its official reserves in Q1 2018.

If we look at the chart below, we can see just how much gold Turkey imported in 2017 versus 2016:

Turkish gold imports 2016 vs 2017

Turkish gold imports more than tripled from 106 mt in 2016 to 361 mt in 2017. Again, the large increase in Turkish gold imports was due to a 60% increase in investment demand and the 86 mt purchase by the Central bank. With the addition of the 30 mt of Central bank gold purchases in Q1 2018, official Turkish holdings are now nearly 600 mt.


Continue reading (here)

May 11 2018

moneymetals

Craig Hemke of TF Metals on Gloomy Scenarios for the Fed That Should Boost Metals

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Craig Hemke of the TFMetalsReport.com. Craig runs one of the most highly respected and well-known websites in the entire industry and has been covering the precious metals for a decade now, and he puts out some of the best analysis on banking schemes, the flaws of Keynesian economics, and evidence of manipulation in the gold and silver markets.

Craig, it's been entirely too long. Thanks for joining us again, and how are you my friend?

Craig Hemke: Oh, Mike, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for having me back on. I'm a little more grayer, more wrinkles, all that kind of stuff in the last time since we've spoken, but that's what these markets will do to you, that's for sure.

Mike Gleason: Yeah, certainly do. Craig, we know that you've been covering this rally in the dollar closely over the past 3 weeks. I wanted to kind of start there. The problem is, in the short run, nobody in the markets really cares about the dollar's value relative to what it can actually buy. Traders simply care about how it's performing in foreign exchange, paired against some other national currencies, and the dollar has been strengthening against the euro and the yen. But, with that said, you definitely can't take a dollar and buy more stuff today than you could, say, 3 weeks ago. In fact, it takes more dollars to buy a barrel of crude oil than it did last month. People still figure the CPI basket of goods will cost 2 to 3% more a year from now. Some of us figure inflation has been, and will be, a lot higher than that.

In a minute, we'd like to get your take on whether the rally in the dollar is likely to persist a while longer. But before we get into where the dollar is headed, help us out here, because as we're seeing the dollar getting stronger against paper currencies, and that seems to be all anyone wants to talk about, but meanwhile, the dollar is getting weaker when you look at it compared to the stuff we actually need to buy, like crude oil, for instance, and there are other examples as well. So, explain this to us, if you can, because it appears to us that everyone is focusing on the wrong thing here, Craig.

Craig Hemke: Well, that's always the case it seems like, Mike. Actually, everybody's probably seen those charts going back to 1913, when we instituted the Federal Reserve and the value of the dollar has declined by 98%, or something like that. Really, the pain for the regular, average, everyday American began in 1971 when Nixon suspended, as they say, the convertibility of the dollar into gold. And that's when the U.S. government, the Treasury, the Fed, went off the rails, began printing currency in their effort to fund both guns and butter, if you will, in the traditional Keynesian sense. All the social programs, all the wars, everything else, all the accumulated debt, and it's at that point that, again, things began to get out of hand.

​And it is at that point, you can trace it back, to that's when the standard of living, for every American citizen, really began to decline. It's why my generation, your generation, Mike, everybody has such a much more difficult time making ends meet than, maybe, our parents had. Because not only is it food costs, it's taxes, it's education costs, it's everything that goes with it, and it's because of this incredible devaluation of the currency.

What do you mean by devaluation of the currency? Look, anybody understands, even if you didn't take Econ 101, you know supply and demand, right? And if you increase the supply of a certain item you're, by very definition, devaluing the existing supply of that item. It just makes it less valuable if there's more and more of it, by any, again, by any sense of the imagination. And so, therefore, all of this money printing, all of the trillions of dollars of TARP, and QE, and everything else, has just continued to destroy, really everybody outside of about the top 10% of income earners in the U.S., and sadly, that's a path that we continue to go down.

Mike Gleason: Yeah, certainly the wealth gap gets bigger and bigger, the more inflation we get, that's for sure.

Now, let's talk for a minute about what you're expecting from the dollar, just if we get back to how it's going to relate to other fiat currencies over the short run, and give us a guess on where the DXY index might be by years end. Has the trend lower that began a year and a half ago been broken?

​Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source) ​

May 09 2018

moneymetals

May 08 2018

moneymetals

The Two Most Important Reasons To Invest In Gold & Silver

Gold/Silver & cashAs the markets and financial system continue to be propped up by an ever-increasing amount of debt and leverage, precious metals investors need to understand the two most important reasons to invest in gold and silver. While one of the reasons to own precious metals is understood by many in the alternative media community, the more important critical factor is not.

The motivation to write this article is due to the increasing amount of negative sentiment and comments in regards to precious metals analysis and investing. There’s a very interesting notion put forth by many commenters that the precious metals analysts and dealers are the frauds and charlatans, not Wall Street or the Central Banks. I imagine they believe this because gold and silver prices haven’t performed as forecasted or compared to the insanely inflated stock, real estate, and crypto markets.

Before I discuss the two important reasons to own precious metals, I would like to provide some information about the fraud and corruption taking place in the financial industry.

Now, it is true that a few precious metals dealers have defrauded investors, but this is true with all sectors and markets in the financial industry. However, investors frustrated with the precious metals tend to forget the massive amount of fraud and losses that took place as a result of the 2008 Housing and Investment Banking collapse.


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May 07 2018

moneymetals

Gold & Silver Eagle Sales Drop Sharply Due To Central Bank Intervention

Thanks to the Fed and Central bank intervention, sales of Gold and Silver Eagle sales declined sharply over the past year. Yes, it’s true… precious metals investors have lost interest in gold and silver as the stocks, real estate, and crypto markets reached new highs in 2017. So, who wants to continue purchasing gold and silver when many cryptocurrencies were experiencing 10% increases in a day.

Historians will look back at 2017 as the year that asset prices went utterly insane. Of course, the cryptomarket enjoyed the highest gains compared to most assets, but many stocks hit bubble territory last year as well.

Here is a small list of Big Gaining Assets in 2017:

  1. Dow Jones = +26%
  2. Nasdaq = +29%
  3. Netflix = +55%
  4. Amazon = +67%
  5. Caterpillar = +73%
  6. Bitcoin = +1,500%+

Now, let’s look at the gold and silver price increases in 2017:

  1. Silver = +6%
  2. Gold = +14%

While gold did go up more than double silver last year, many investors became frustrated with the metals and turned to making big gains in stocks and cryptos. Furthermore, the motivation to protect wealth by purchasing precious metals didn’t seem to matter anymore because the Dow Jones Index is supposedly going to 50,000 and Bitcoin, $100,000. So, with these sorts of gains in the future, why on earth would anyone want to buy precious metals?

Investors and the public today have become totally irrational. Also, no one wants to work anymore. Instead, we rather put $5,000 in Bitcoin or the other 1,500 cryptos so we can retire to Tahiti with our massive Blockchain profits. Furthermore, if we watch some of the videos by the crypto aficionados, that is precisely what they are doing… well, at least on a temporary vacation basis. Nothing like learning about cryptos from someone sitting on the beach drinking cocktails.

And, if an individual isn’t making $millions in cryptos, then the next best thing is the exponentially rising stock prices today to make money hand over fist. If an investor was smart enough and invested a mere $10,000 in Amazon at the low of $50 in 2009, they would be holding on to $300,000. Yes, I realize this isn’t like making $millions in the cryptos, but not everyone can be a millionaire.

Continue reading... (source

May 01 2018

moneymetals

Marc Faber: Countries Unwise to Let Antagonistic U.S. Hold Their Gold

Well now, for a closer look at America’s politics internationally and what it all might mean for gold and silver, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Marc faber

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to be joined by a man who needs little introduction, Marc Faber, editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report. Dr. Faber has been a long-time guest on financial shows throughout the world, and is a well-known Austrian economist and investment advisor, and it's a tremendous honor to have him on with us today.

Dr. Faber, thanks so much for joining us again, and how are you?

Marc Faber: Well, it's my pleasure to be on your show. Thank you.

Mike Gleason: Let's start out here with the equities Marc. Now the U.S. stock markets peaked in late January and made their lows for the year in early February. Stocks have been trading in a range since, but are currently pushing back towards those lows as volatility has certainly picked up. If you had to guess about which way the markets are likely to break from here, what would it be, and do you think we've seen the top for 2018 or can speculators keep pushing the markets higher for a bit longer?

Marc Faber: That's a good question and I think everybody's interested in the answers and everybody has a different view, but I have maintained that the January 26th high for the S&P up 2,872 was like a mirror image of the low on March 6th, 2009 when the S&P was at 666. At that time, everybody was bearish and leading strategy and I don't want to name who, but they were predicting for the S&P to fall to 400. And what happened is that, because sentiment was so negative, and the market was so oversold, the market turned around and actually on very poor earnings, started to go up. And now, we have, in January, a high, when everybody felt that the market would go higher and what then happened is that on good earnings, stocks didn't move up, but started to go down.

So, I think we are in a situation where it is likely, it's not yet a hundred percent sure, in order to get a clearer picture, if a major bear market has started, we would have to make a low below the February low, but that hasn't happened yet. But looking at the market and the market action and the momentum and the number of stock that are actually making new lows, I'd say there is a fair probability that the market will disappoint point very badly.

Mike Gleason: Dr. Faber, it seems to us that the fate of precious metals markets is tied pretty closely to stock prices, at least in the near term. We lack either fear or greed to drive any trend change. Here in the U.S. there's very little demand for safe-haven assets. If you look at sentiment in the metals markets you'll find that the greed factor is also missing. Now that could all change if gold and silver can catch investors' attention by significantly outperforming stocks for a while longer or if we get the long overdue correction stocks.

Now Marc, you wrote recently about two items you feel would signal a major top in the equity markets. The first had to do with the public going all-in, coupled with an excessive amount of speculation. The second would be the revelation of a major fraud. Those items will be familiar to anyone who had taken a good look at the 2008 financial crisis. Are you expecting history to repeat itself here?

​Read/Listen to the full podcast (source) ​

moneymetals

Why Gold & Silver Won’t Crash Along With The Stock Markets


When it comes to what happens during the next major market correction-crash, we can count on that “this time will be different” for the gold and silver prices. While many precious metals investors believe that gold and silver will crash along with the broader markets, the charts and data suggest the opposite.

In my newest video, Why Gold & Silver Won’t Crash Along With The Stock Markets, I provide charts and updated information on the break-even analysis of the primary gold and silver mining industry. According to my research, the gold market price has not fallen below the production cost of the top gold miners in the past two decades.

Some analysts, such as Harry Dent, believe the gold price will fall to $700 this year. Dent reconfirmed his forecast in the following article, Why We Are Heading Toward $700 Gold In 2018:

Investors are fleeing to gold in a desperate attempt to weather the recent market volatility… but is this long time “safe-haven” actually poised to collapse wiping out trillions of dollars of wealth in the process?

While many economists will argue that gold is not in a bubble… and insist it will soar to $2,000, $5,000 and even $10,000, my research has said otherwise. I’ve never been more certain of anything in over 30 years of economic forecasting.

Market volatility, worries over the Europe Central Bank, negative interest rates, and China are among a laundry list of events that are driving panicked masses to buy the yellow metal. But this is only inflating the gold bubble that is poised to pop at any moment.

Mr. Dent states the due to the current market volatility, worries over Central banks, negative interest rates, and fears about China’s massive credit bubble are driving investors into gold. BUT, according to Dent, this gold bubble is about to POP.

I find Dent’s analysis that gold is in a bubble quite interesting because if something were in a bubble, then it would have to be at least 50-100% overvalued. If we look at the data on gold and silver, they are no were near BUBBLE TERRITORY.

Shame on you Harry for putting out bogus analysis.

Unfortunately, Harry Dent has no clue about Energy, the Falling EROI or the cost of production when he applies his forecasts. Dent, like most in his industry, produce superficial, incomplete and faulty analysis because they are forecasting in a vacuum. Now, when I state that they are forecasting in a vacuum, that means they are providing analysis by excluding the most crucial variable… ENERGY.

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April 30 2018

moneymetals

The Least Known (and Best Performing) Precious Metal

Gold and silver have risen substantially off the price bottom put in just 2-½ years ago, but the gains have yet to attract much notice. Gold has gained roughly 28% and silver is up 20%.

Meanwhile, another metal has more than doubled since bottoming. This performance should have been more than enough to catch the attention of metals investors, if only they were watching. The metal is palladium and, for those who haven’t paid much attention, it is time for a brief update.

Palladium is one of the platinum group metals (PGMs) and it has a lot in common with its higher profile brother.

Like platinum, palladium is a lustrous, silver-white metal. It has many of the same applications. The largest application is in automobile catalytic converters, but there are also uses in jewelry, dentistry, surgical instruments, and electronics.

Palladium also shares platinum’s troubled supply chain.

The top producers are Russia and South Africa. The latter nation has fallen deeper into turmoil in recent months.

Mines there have dealt with unreliable electricity and labor strife for years. Operators are now at great risk of the having mine properties seized by government officials.

PGMs represent a good way for bullion investors to diversify and gain exposure to different market fundamentals.

Diversification can reduce the volatility in any investment and can produce better results – particularly in weaker markets. Just consider the relative outperformance of palladium versus gold and silver over the past 30 months.

Investing in palladium makes sense for investors who anticipate rising demand for cars and trucks which produce lower emissions globally. If the economies of China and India continue to develop rapidly, demand for the metal should keep rising. It will not take a lot of additional demand to completely outstrip supplies.

One wild card is the adoption of electric vehicles, which do not have catalytic converters and require very little of the metal. For now, these types of vehicles are more costly and have severe limitations in terms of range and power

​.

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moneymetals

GOLD & SILVER: The Ultimate Hedge Against Everything That Is Wrong In The Markets

Today we are getting another whiff of what’s wrong in the markets. Currently, the Dow Jones Index is down over 500 points, and the NASDAQ is off by more than 100 points. Who knows where the markets will finally end up at the close of trading, but it really doesn’t matter. Markets aren’t valued in days or weeks; rather it takes months and years. So, be patient, and you will be rewarded with at least a 50% decline in the Dow Jones Index.

Unfortunately, a lot of traders, even some frustrated precious metals investors, forget about the STAGES OF A FINANCIAL BUBBLE. It seems like after about ten years, all memory of the 2008 Financial Meltdown has been all but forgotten. While I can understand the “This time is different” by the Mainstream Media, I have to get a kick reading comments by disenchanted precious metals investors who have been swayed by the rampant insanity in the markets.

So, let me publish the stages of a financial bubble to remind those who have either been brainwashed by the Mainstream Media or who have just forgotten the fundamentals:

Stages of a finacial bubble

If I had to make a reasonable guesstimate, I would imagine we are somewhere going down the Peak slope or close to the Denial Stage. However, once the Dow Jones Index falls below 20,000, we will know that the markets have entered into the Fear Stage. During the Fear Stage is when I see the price and demand for precious metals to increase. As we enter the Capitulation Stage, then we could experience precious metals demand like we have never seen before.

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April 24 2018

moneymetals

China Takes the Long View on Gold-Silver... and So Should You

A cursory look at Chinese history can convince you that China should not be underestimated when it sets its sights on a particular goal.

Even before Mao Zedong took over the reins in 1949, and the first Five Year Plan began in 1953, centuries of history demonstrated that long-term planning, while not always meeting expectations, is a core behavioral trait of the Chinese psyche.

And more often than not, it has enabled them to hit the mark.

Expect eventual success for the One Belt, One Road Initiative – the world's largest construction project, estimated to cost $80 trillion dollars – linking the Asian mainland, (including Central Asia) with Europe via high speed rail, communications links and vibrant financial trading platforms.

And expect this project to be a major factor in bringing about what Doug Casey and others believe could become the greatest commodities bull-run that most of us now living are going to see.

The petro-yuan. A game-changer?

And oh, by the way, China recently officially launched a petro-yuan contract at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange. It marks the first time overseas investors have been able to access a Chinese commodity market – an oil futures contract – that can be settled, not only with U.S. dollars, but also Chinese Yuan, eventually a basket of currencies... and gold.


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April 23 2018

moneymetals

Don’t Get Screwed: Buy Collectible Coins ONLY When They Sell Near Bullion Prices

Gold and silver investors generally get started because they are looking for a safe haven. Unfortunately, many of them call a dealer advertising precious metals on TV. The advertising resonates because it touches on all the best reasons to own physical metal, so they pick up the phone.

Then they get conned.

The salesperson talks them into buying overpriced rare coins, instead of low-cost bullion coins, rounds, or bars.

They began by looking for a conservative investment which will hold up in the face of perpetual inflation and/or a collapse in paper securities markets, a la 2008. What they wind up with is a coin that costs 50% more than it’s worth because the dealer misrepresented how rare and desirable the coin really is.

That is how people make a lousy investment in rare or collectible coins. Here is how somebody can make a good one...

Alert buyers can actually get certain historic coins without paying large premiums. They can add something to their stack which offers two ways to appreciate in value. These coins will gain in price as the metals rise or as collectors take a renewed interest, or both.

Right now, investors can grab graded pre-1933 gold coins on the cheap. By “cheap” we mean within $50 of the price for circulated, non-graded versions of the same coins. Money Metals Exchange often has MS-63 or MS-64 grade coins available on our Product Specials page priced this way.

In a weak coin market like we have today, more investors are selling and premiums are at multi-year lows. Coins with these lower MS grades command very little, if any, additional price. Supply is more than plentiful enough to meet the tepid demand.

However, when the market heats up these coins will quickly evaporate from dealer stocks and premiums will rise.


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April 11 2018

moneymetals

FRAGILE NATURE OF CURRENCIES: Why Gold & Silver Are High-Quality Stores Of Value

As the U.S. and global economy speed towards the Seneca Cliff, very few individuals understand the fragile nature of currencies. Today, we use the lightning speed of the digital banking system to make our purchases at the store or online. It has become seemingly natural to buy groceries at the swipe of a card. Only a small percentage of purchases are made with cash… paper money.

However, our high-tech digital banking system is built upon a highly complex system that consumes a massive amount of energy just to maintain business as usual. There’s this notion that technology will grow exponentially while at the same time making our lives easier. TV commercials are showing how individuals today have more power at their fingertips than entire generations in the past. While this is currently true, I can assure you; we are not heading into a high-tech world where robots do everything for us.

Unfortunately, due to the rapidly Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment and the thermodynamics of resource depletion, we are heading into a future with much less technology and a great deal more human labor. I know, it sounds insane to say that, but it’s true. Human labor and human farming have a much higher EROI than any technology used today.

Continue to the full article (source

April 05 2018

moneymetals

MARKET MELTDOWN CONTINUES: Gold & Silver Prices Begin To Disconnect

As the BLOOD continues to run on Wall Street, gold and silver were the few assets trading in the green today. As I have mentioned in past articles and interviews, investors need to get used to this sort of trading activity. Even though the Dow Jones Index ended off its lows of the day, it shed another 458 points while the Nasdaq declined 190 points and the S&P fell 60.

As the broader markets sold off, the gold price increased $15 while silver jumped by $0.25. However, if we look at these markets during their peak of trading, the contrast is even more remarkable:

Peak market trading april 2nd 2018

At the lows of the day, the Dow Jones Index fell 730 points or 3%, while the S&P 500 fell 3.2% and the Nasdaq declined by 3.8%. Also, as I expected, the oil price fell along with the broader markets by dropping 2.7%. If individuals believe the oil price will continue towards $100, due to supply and demand fundamentals put forth by some energy analysts, you may want to consider one of the largest Commercial Net Short positions in history. Currently, the Commercial Net Short position is 738,000 contacts. When the oil price was trading at a low of $30 at the beginning of 2016, the Commercial Net Short position was only 180,000 contracts.

Furthermore, if we agree that supply and demand forces are impacting the oil price to a certain degree, does anyone truly believe oil demand won’t fall when the stock market drops by 50+%??? I forecast that as market meltdown continues, the oil price will decline as oil demand falls faster than supply.


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April 04 2018

moneymetals

China Moves to Neuter King Dollar in International Trade

Last Monday, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched the first futures contract for crude oil priced in Chinese yuan. It’s a major step forward in the process of international de-dollarization. Now Chinese and other international traders can buy and sell the world’s most important commodity in a liquid market without using U.S. dollars.

The “petro dollar” now faces the prospect of being rendered unnecessary as China – the world’s biggest oil importer – attempts to establish a “petro yuan.”

China is launching a pilot program to purchase oil from Russia and Angola (two of its top suppliers) using yuan. Russia and China share a common interest in trying to break the dollar's dominance in global commodity trading.

The two powers have been among the world’s top gold accumulators in recent years, with some reports suggesting Russia is now also loading up on silver for the possible launch of a silver ruble. Russia and other emerging commodity supplier markets stand to be among the big beneficiaries of a weaker dollar, as does China.



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March 27 2018

moneymetals

Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold

Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.

The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.

Many projects with marginal ore deposits were rendered uneconomic. High cost operators went out of business. Exploration budgets got slashed dramatically. And all of these factors compound a larger underlying issue. It is increasingly difficult to find gold deposits that make sense to mine. New discoveries are less than a fifth of what they were in 2006.

Exploration fail (chart)

Much higher gold prices will drive more exploration and should boost discoveries. Some projects which have been mothballed due to higher costs will become feasible once again. But the trend seems clear – the drought in discoveries, which began more than a decade ago, looks likely to persist regardless of the gold price. And the struggle to find economic deposits will translate to a serious decline in production in the years ahead.


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March 19 2018

moneymetals

Larry Kudlow Toes Wall Street’s Anti-Gold Company Line

Gary Cohn resigned as President Donald Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor on March 6th. He and Trump didn’t see eye to eye on the recently imposed tariffs and the President selected CNBC commentator Larry Kudlow to replace him Wednesday. Perhaps it was Kudlow’s experience on television that got him the job.

Larry kudlow

It doesn’t look like he was chosen for his intellectual honesty. Kudlow was quite vocal with his own opposition to tariffs.

He has suddenly done an about face and now says he can “live” with targeted tariffs. However, it gets worse than simply flip-flopping on trade.

In one of his very first interviews after accepting the post, Kudlow offered this bit of advice to investors: “I would buy King Dollar and I would sell gold.”

The dollar went on a dramatic losing streak during Trump’s first year in office – one of its worst annual performances in decades. Of course, that is just a single year.

The fiat dollar has been in almost continual decline versus real assets since the Federal Reserve’s establishment 105 years ago. It has lost 98.5% of its purchasing power relative to gold since then.

Kudlow must have seen the forecasts which show federal deficits spiking higher as the combination of tax cuts and higher spending wreak havoc on the budget. The tariffs should further weigh on the U.S. dollar as higher steel and aluminum prices drive inflation.




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