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January 19 2018

moneymetals

Chinese Physical Gold Investment Demand Surges While Americans Pile Into Stock & Crypto Bubbles

Chinese demand for physical gold investment surged in the first three-quarters of 2017 while Americans ditched the shiny yellow metal for increased bets in the crypto mania and stock market bubble market. Even though China’s Hang Seng Stock Market outperformed the Dow Jones Index last year, Chinese citizens purchased the most gold bar and coin products Q1-Q3 2017 since the same period in 2013, when they took advantage of huge gold market price selloff.

According to the World Gold Council, Chinese gold bar and coin demand increased to 233 metric tons (mt) in the first three-quarters of 2017 compared to 162 mt in the same period last year. Furthermore, if we include Indian gold bar and coin demand, China and India consumed nearly half of the world’s total:

Global gold bar & coin demand q1 - q3 2017

As we can see, China and India consumed 338 mt of gold bar and coin products which accounted for 47% of the total 715 mt Q1-Q3 2017. German gold bar and coin demand of 81 mt took the third highest spot followed by Thailand (49 mt), Turkey (47 mt), Switzerland (31 mt) and the United States (30 mt). Chinese gold bar and coin demand of 233 mt nearly equaled the total demand by German, Thailand, Turkey, Switzerland and the United States of 238 mt.


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January 03 2018

moneymetals

Don’t Look Now, but Gold Just Finished Its Best Year Since 2011

Metals investors may have missed it given the gloomy sentiment that plagued markets for much of 2017, but gold just finished its best year since 2011.

Perhaps in a year like the one just passed, 13% gains are simply not inspiring. U.S. stocks finished about 25% higher for the year, and crypto-currencies including Bitcoin left all other asset classes in the dust. Bitcoin gained roughly 1,400%.

Die hard gold bugs enter 2018 waiting for crypto-bugs and stock bulls to see the value of precious metals. Fortunately, precious metals have served reliably both as an inflation hedge and as a safe haven for most of recorded history. It looks less and less probable investors will get through another 12 months while ignoring both inflation and market risk simultaneously.

While other markets were finishing 2017 strong, the U.S. dollar ended the year with a whimper. The dollar fell 10%, its worst performance in more than a decade.

That weakness has yet to manifest itself as price inflation in consumer goods and services. It has instead shown up in asset prices.

Consumers have yet to feel their dollars getting weaker, which may explain much about why a traditional inflation hedge like gold isn’t getting a lot of attention. That may change in the months ahead, particularly if President Donald Trump can add his debt-financed infrastructure spending program to the tax cuts recently passed. Both initiatives represent fiscal stimulus for Main Street, and a shift from Wall Street oriented monetary policy including Quantitative Easing.

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December 18 2017

moneymetals

A Bit of Tax Planning Can Turn Lemons Into Lemonade

Inline image 1

The IRS classifies bullion coins and bars which carry zero collectible value the same way it categorizes a collection of baseball cards. Because of the IRS’s dishonest interpretation of tax law, gold and silver bullion is currently subject to the higher 28% long-term capital gains rate for “collectibles.” By comparison, the rate for Wall Street and government approved assets – just about everything else – is 15-20%, depending upon the taxpayer’s income.

Investors might as well use this punitive long-term capital gains rate to their advantage. Metal purchased more than a year ago at a higher price can be sold to unlock losses and reduce taxes. Individuals can claim up to $3,000 in losses against ordinary income, and more if they have capital gains on another asset. (Check with your own tax advisor.)

Tax breaks

Now is certainly not a great time to exit the metals markets, in our opinion. Fortunately, realizing capital losses can be done without relinquishing a position in metals for more than a few seconds. Investors can immediately buy replacement metals without having the transaction classified as a wash sale (wash sale rules do NOT apply to precious metals – only to securities).

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December 05 2017

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December 04 2017

moneymetals

Gerald Celente: Middle East Wild Cards Could Bring Down Markets, Drive Up Gold

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Gerald celente

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for taking the time and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Thanks for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, to start off here, we still have the equities markets ripping and roaring and there is seemingly no news that can derail the train. So, as we head into the end of the year, what does your forecast show for the crowd on Wall Street? Is the party going to end anytime soon?

Gerald Celente: Well, as they go through with this tax deal, it's just going to bring more money to the bigger corporations and you saw what the corporations have done with the profits from the past, what do they do with them? They reinvested them into the stock market rather than building their companies and investing in capital improvements.

So, giving them more money will give them more stock buybacks. The more stock buybacks, the higher the market goes. I mean that's the reality of it. So, if the tax breaks go through the way they're being planned, we're going to see more stock buybacks, more cheap money to reinvest back into the markets.

Again, we're looking at a very small segment of the population that's really playing the markets. For example, only 10% of Americans are in the markets at the range that makes any difference, so that 10%, for example, that's playing, they have about in equity about $350,000 (on average). The rest of society that has money into it, the so called middle class, of those that have any money in it, and again the 10% own over 90%. For the rest of the society, they only have about $15,000 in equity.

So, the markets are just going to keep going up if the cheap money keeps existing. Again, that's going to also see what happens when they raise interest rates, which are about a 99% sure shot now, later in December. And if the cheap money flows stop, then the markets stop. It's as simple as that, but we don't think a 25 basis point increase is going to have much of an impact.

Mike Gleason: Clearly the world has a problem with crooked bankers and corrupt politicians. We talked about this a bit when we had you on back in August. The two aren't unrelated, of course. Bankers and politicians have a very long and dark history of collusion.

On one hand, if history is a guide, there isn't much reason to expect anyone will be held to account for their crimes. "They are too big to jail," as former Attorney General Eric Holder might say. On the other hand, we can't help but be a little bit hopeful. It looks to us like some of these crimes, such as the Uranium One deal, are getting harder to ignore.

What do you make of the recent news? Are you feeling any more optimistic about some of these crooks actually going to prison?

Gerald Celente: No, quite the opposite. Look at the new Fed chair that's coming in. He's already saying that the banking regulations in place now are too tough and tough enough. So, if under the current regulations nobody went to jail and they soften them, they could steal more, and get fined, and also accused of less crimes.

So, no, it's going in the opposite direction. Under the new administration, they're not draining the swamp, they’re just filling the swamp with different swamp creatures. I mean look at the Trump White House. Who's running it? Mnuchin and Cohn on the financial end and those are both Goldman Sachs guys. It's just more of the same.

Mike Gleason: The rise of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in particular, is making waves in the precious metals markets. Some of the demand for gold and silver has been diverted to Bitcoin. People see it as another form of honest money and there is plenty of excitement over the huge price gains. Lots of people are wondering what the rise of Bitcoin might mean for precious metals over the longer term.

Now, our take is that Bitcoin offer hope as honest money and we are certainly fans of anything that can circumvent central bankers. Gold and silver, on the other hand, are proven stores of value with a track record extending back thousands of years and they are totally off the grid. Physical metals work with or without electricity or an internet connection and they can be used without leaving digital tracks behind.

What are your thoughts on the relationship between Bitcoin and bullion?

Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source

November 29 2017

moneymetals

November 28 2017

moneymetals

Gold's Global Supply Artery: Heading for Cardiac Arrest

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An oceanic-scale demand push from "all parts Far East" is building, as the desire to own gold and silver promises to place an increasingly solid foundation for years to come.

China, India, and Southeast Asia have historically accumulated precious metal as a savings vehicle, a hedge against political uncertainty (e.g. India's surprise call-in last year of 80% of the country's paper currency), and as an expression of affection. China's newly-emerging affluent middle class alone is set to become larger than the population of the U.S. Frank Holmes collectively refers to these elements as "love and fear trades".

China's One Belt-One Road (OBOR) Initiative – the world's largest-ever construction project – is designed to link 60% of the world's population in a cooperative financial and economic matrix. Taken together, the continued migration of gold supply from West to East is baked into the cake.

For a deeper understanding of how and why China is leading the charge – and going about capturing an outsized portion of the global gold supply – see my essay from last summer, titled China's Get the Gold Plan: Part II.

Even as the West ships much of its remaining gold eastward (largely via Swiss refineries who "repurpose" it into .9999 fine gold), countries like Germany and Turkey have stepped up to the plate, becoming noteworthy demand drivers in their own right.

Fund managers are finally realizing that gold deserves to be a permanent portfolio asset holding category. In The Morgan Report and in Riches in Resources, David Morgan has written extensively about this for both individual investors and institutional clients. Just one more "silent lever" by which a long-term, rock-solid foundation is being built under gold's demand... and price.

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November 27 2017

moneymetals

October 31 2017

moneymetals

BREAKING: China – World’s Largest Gold Producer Mine Supply Plummets 10%

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The world’s top gold producer saw its mine supply plummet by 10% in the first half of 2017. According to the GFMS World Gold Survey newest update, China’s gold production in 1H 2017 fell the most in over a decade. The fall in Chinese gold production is quite significant as the country will have to increase its imports to make up the shortfall in its mine supply.

The data in the GFMS 2017 Q3 Gold Survey Update & Outlook reported that Chinese gold mine supply declined 23 metric tons to 207 metric tons in the 1H 2017 versus the 230 metric tons during the same period last year:

China gold mine production (1h 2016 vs 1h 2017)

The report stated the reason for the decline in Chinese gold production was due to the government’s increased efforts to curb pollution as well as heightened awareness of environmental protection. Furthermore, GFMS analysts forecast that Chinese gold production will continue to deteriorate for the remainder of the year as production is scaled down.

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October 30 2017

moneymetals

October 25 2017

moneymetals

Threats to Digital Wealth Point Up Need for Tangible Backup

Recent high-profile cyber security breaches at Equifax and other financial institutions highlight the perils of an all-digital economy. When wealth can be evaporated or expropriated at the stroke of a key, how secure can your finances really be?

Obviously, there is a big difference between wealth you can tangibly hold and wealth that exists only in electronic form.

One advantage of paper cash is that it can’t be hacked or stolen digitally. Paper money isn’t by any means hard money like gold and silver, but it does at least provide some of the privacy and convenience features that come with tangible assets. That’s why bankers and bureaucrats want to ultimately ban the use of paper Federal Reserve Notes and force all cash transactions to go online.

Hard money assets

A recent story in the Wall Street Journal suggested, “reducing the supply of cash in the U.S. could help lower crime and make the Fed’s job easier.” Limiting our access to cash... to help monetary central planners do their job – somehow it didn’t occur to the Founders to enshrine that principle into the Constitution!

Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, says eliminating $50 and $100 bills is necessary to reduce tax evasion and black-market transactions.

According to Rogoff, “Another advantage of eliminating large bills would be the effect on monetary policy. The Federal Reserve should be able to implement negative nominal interest rates vastly more effectively in the absence of large bills, which could prove quite important as a stimulative tool in the next financial crisis.”

A negative interest rate policy is effectively a tax on holding cash in a bank. But the policy doesn’t work so well when people can hold paper cash and thus escape the negative rate exaction.

The war on cash is proceeding in small steps, with lots of nudging from corporate America. Visa has launched a “Cashless Challenge” to incentivize small businesses to stop accepting paper currency. “Visa is helping lead the cashless movement by working to reshape how people pay and get paid,” the credit card giant boasts.

Continue reading: (source)

October 24 2017

moneymetals

October 23 2017

moneymetals

Greg Weldon: Debt-Driven Consumer Economy Breaking Down


Greg weldon

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and President of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in metals and commodity markets and even authored a book in 2006 titled Gold Trading Bootcamp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He is a highly sought-aftera presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a regular guest on financial shows throughout the world, and it's good to have him back here on the Money Metals Podcast.

Greg, thanks for joining us today. And it's nice to talk to you again. How are you?

Greg Weldon: I'm great, thanks. My pleasure, Micheal.

Mike Gleason: Well, when we had you on back in mid-August you were optimistic about gold at the time. We had a pretty good move higher, shortly thereafter that ended up with gold hitting a one year high. But it stalled out around $1,350 in early September and we're currently back below $1,300 as we're talking here on Wednesday afternoon. Gold hit resistance at about the same level in the summer of last year, so give us your update as to your current outlook. What drivers, if any, do you see that can push gold through that $1,350 resistance level in the months ahead, Greg?

Greg Weldon: Yeah, well, exactly as you said. You had the move that we were anticipating when we last spoke and it kind of had already started from the 1205-ish level. All of this fitting into the kind of bigger picture, technical structure that still leads to a bullish resolution. But as you accurately mentioned, you got up to what have been close to, not quite even towards last summer's highs around $1,375, $1,377. In this case, around $1,360 and ran out of steam.

The dollar kind of changed some of the picture and the thought process linked to the Fed changed some of the picture. So, you embarked on a downside correction. $1,260 was the low, you have a nice little correction from that level. That was the level that equated to 200-day exponential moving average. It's a level that was just below the 38% Fibonnaci retracement of the move up from $1,205. Actually, the move up from $1,123 back at the end of 2016. So you had real, critical support there. So, to me, everything's kind of mapped out the way you might expect it to, structurally, in this market.

From here, one of two things happens, I think. Well, one of three things, anyway. You could be cut if you have a bit of low rally backed up to $1,300. You back below it a little bit to dollars; still looks kind of strong. It's an interest rate differential dynamic as a more hawkish view for the Fed is priced into the Fed funds; that gets transferred into the two-year and five-year treasury notes. The two-year treasury notes at a record high-yield relative to the German two-year schatzi. So, that lifting the dollar ... it's kind of gravitational pull to the upside. And that is some of the downside risk here; that the rally we just saw is kind of you b-wave and maybe you have a c-wave down towards $1,240. That's kind of an ultimate low. Whether or not it plays out that way, longer term we still like it.

Mike Gleason: Precious metals have had a pretty respectable year all in all. Gold is up about 11% year to date. Silver is up about half as much. There isn't exactly a lot of excitement. It seems like it's always two steps forward, one step back. Sentiment in the physical bullion markets, where we operate, is muted. There are multiple factors to consider as to why metals markets are stuck in a bit of a rut. It seems to us that one of the big ones is the equities market stock prices just keep marching relentlessly higher. Either investors have become totally desensitized to risk or maybe there just isn't as much risk as well think there is. In any event, barring some sort of spike in inflation expectations, which pushes metals and stocks both higher, we don't see gold and silver breaking out unless investors start getting nervous about stock market valuations and thinking about safe havens. So what are your thoughts about equity markets and how they relate to precious metals, Greg? And where do you see stock prices headed in the near term?

Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source

moneymetals

October 19 2017

moneymetals

Palladium and Rhodium on Fire, Is Platinum Next?

Platinum was once the most precious of metals. For decades, it traded at a premium to gold. The other platinum group metals – palladium and rhodium – barely registered on investors’ radar screens.

October 17 2017

moneymetals

Jim Rickards on the War on Gold, the Coming China Collapse & War w/ North Korea

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Jim rickards

Mike Gleason: It is my great privilege to be joined now by James Rickards. Mr. Rickards is editor of Strategic Intelligence, a monthly newsletter, and Director of the James Rickards Project, an inquiry into the complex dynamics of geopolitics and a capital. He's also the author of several bestselling books including The Death of Money, Currency WarsThe New Case for Gold, and now his latest book The Road to Ruin.

In addition to his achievements as a writer and author, Jim is also a portfolio manager, lawyer and renowned economic commentator having been interviewed by CNBC, the BBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and CNN just to name a few. And we're also happy to have him back on the Money Metals Podcast.

Jim, thanks for coming on with us again today. We really appreciate your time. How are you?

Jim Rickards: I'm fine, Mike. Thanks. Great to be with you. Thanks for having me.

Mike Gleason: I wanted to ask you about a tweet you sent out earlier this month – and for people who want to follow you there, it's @JamesGRickards – but in that tweet you wrote:

Just informed that Scotia Bank branch is now a gold buyer only. Will not sell to retail clients. Get it while you can. War on gold is here.

Expand on that here, Jim. What did you make of that move and why did you make those comments?

Jim Rickards: Sure. We have a war on cash. I think that's pretty well known to the listeners, so we see it everywhere. India just abolished its two most popular forms of cash. They literally woke up one day and they said, I think it was the 2,000 rupee note and the 1,000 rupee note, if I'm not mistaken. I believe those are the right denominations. Not worth a whole lot by our standards, worth like $15 or whatever. But they were, by far the most popular and widely used, widely circulated bank notes in India. And the government just woke up and said they're all illegal. They're worthless. Just like that. Now what they said is, "Now you can take them down to the bank and you can hand them in, and we'll give you digital credit in your account—oh by the way, the tax inspector's going to be there asking you where you got the money." So obviously it was designed to flush out people suspected of tax evasion.

Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source)

October 11 2017

moneymetals

STUNNING U.S. GOVERNMENT DEBT INCREASE IN PAST FEW DAYS... While No One Noticed


As the stock market continues to rise on the back of some of the worst geopolitical, financial, and domestic news, the U.S. Treasury has been quietly increasing the amount of government debt, with virtually no coverage by the Mainstream or Alternative Media. So, how much has the U.S. debt increased in the past few days? A bunch.

The surge in U.S. debt that took place over the past two days all started when the debt ceiling limit was officially allowed to increase on Sept 8th. In just one day, the U.S. Treasury increased the public debt by $318 billion:

Debt increase september 8, 2017

(chart courtesy of TreasuryDirect.gov)

The was the first time in U.S. history that the public debt rose over $20 trillion. I mentioned this in my article, The U.S. Government Massive ONE-DAY Debt Increase Impact On Interest Expense & Silver ETF:

The U.S. Treasury will have to pay out an additional $7 billion interest payment for the extra $318 billion in debt it increased in just one day. Again, that $7 billion interest payment is based on an average 2.2% rate multiplied by the $318 billion in debt. Now, if we compare the additional $7 billion of U.S. interest expense to the total value of the silver SLV ETF of $5.8 billion, we can plainly see that printing money, and increasing debt becomes a valuable tool for Central Banks to cap the silver price.

Thus, when the U.S. Treasury increased the public debt by $318 billion, it will also have to pay an additional $7 billion in an annual interest payment to finance that debt. However, that large one-day debt increase was over three weeks ago. What’s been going on at the U.S. Treasury since then? Let’s just say; they have been very busy… LOL.

On the last update in September, the U.S. Treasury increased the debt by nearly $40 billion on the very last day of the month:

Debt increase september 2017

(chart courtesy of TreasuryDirect.gov)

As we can see, the U.S. public debt increased from $20,203 billion ($20.203 trillion) on Sept. 28th to $20,245 billion on Sept 29th. Overall, the U.S. debt increased $83 billion more since the $318 billion one-day increase on Sept 8th. Which means, the total debt increase was $400 billion in a little more than three weeks. However, the U.S. Government must be making up for lost time when the debt ceiling was frozen from March 15th to Sept 7th.


​Continue to the full article. (Source)​

October 05 2017

moneymetals

September 22 2017

moneymetals

Stefan Gleason Speaks on Managing Risks, Selling Metals, and Demystifying IRAs

Well now, without further delay let’s get to the conclusion of Money Metals president Stefan Gleason’s recent interview with Alan James on Sustainable Money. And we’ll pick up the conversation with Stefan giving some incredibly important advice on what to look for when choosing a precious metals dealer and talks about the dangers of what can and has happened to those who don’t do the proper due diligence.

September 21 2017

moneymetals

Why I didn't sell Gold and Silver in 2011

I'd like to share a personal investment tale with you, the origins of which go back a ways. I became involved in physical precious metals/futures trading in 1972 after reading Harry Browne's book, How to Profit from the Coming Devaluation.

Not unlike David Morgan (before we knew each other) I accumulated metal and silver futures contracts, and rode prices into the March 1980 top. I sold my futures, but held the metal until the Hunt Brothers were knocked out of the game after the CRIMEX changed the rules to contract-offset only, collapsing the silver price.

I watched silver drop through Harry Browne's "sell if it goes below $37.50" call to $10.80. Then, during a classic 50% retracement to $25, I asked my broker where he though silver would bottom. His answer: "$5.00." He called it almost to the dollar, but it took a generation to get there.

In 2000, after buying a one-ounce gold Krugerrand for my daughter's high school graduation and watching people at her party view it with zero interest, I decided to move back into the sector, focusing on physical metals and mining company shares.

As the new bull market was getting underway in 2001, I decided to write on a piece of paper the following sentence: "On June 22, 2011, win, lose or draw, I will exit my position in the metals and mining shares."

Fast forward to May, 2011. Having worked with David Morgan at The Morgan Report for a decade, we were following the resource sector on a daily basis for subscribers and for our own accounts. His brilliant call to buy silver in the mid-$20 range enabled his subscribers to re-enter for almost the entire upward surge to just under $50... and then he called that cyclical bull market top, to within one day. I called it a day later in an email to Greg McCoach.

You might be asking: "What about that note you wrote to yourself, saying you 'would get out on June 22, 2011 - win, lose or draw.'?" My honest answer, unaffected by greed or ego?

First, I was definitely aware that we could be looking at a major cyclical top – though I never dreamed it would drag the metals down into a five year bear market. However...

The Core Reason I stayed in

My 10 years' earlier sell call was predicated upon the belief that by 2011 we would have seen massive public participation into a blow-off secular top. But that simply had not taken place.

Sitting through the last 5 years was financially painful, but thankfully, instead of just holding onto everything, I moved in and out of mining stocks during the ups and downs into the December, 2015 cyclical bottom, while keeping a physical metals' position. It wasn't easy, but knowing that contrarians reap the biggest gains, I re-bought the strongest mining survivors as a new rise seemed likely.

While gold and silver prices dropped about 45% and 70% respectively, mining stocks were eviscerated – across the board. Here are the 2011 prices of four stocks I originally held, compared to where I finished buying them back 4 years later:

$26.00 - $3.50; $10.20 - $0.26; $13.00 - $1.00; $3.20 - $0.09 cents.

This demonstrates why most people who want to control risk and limit the downside during serious declines should focus on holding physical metal.

In my considered opinion, when silver penetrates and builds a base above $26 on the upside and gold does so above $1,500, we can be reasonably assured that the bull run is back in full swing, with - at the very least - an eventual challenge of the 2011 highs.

Once those highs are penetrated convincingly, above $50 silver and $2,000 gold, the public will enter the market in waves, seeking to buy metals and miners, plus anything remotely connected to them. (My original silver target – which still seems realistic – is an eventual [Phase III] price into the top of $175 - $250/ounce).

Gold bull markets - 1970s vs 2000

Courtesy goldchartsurus.com

Recently, I ran across an interesting commentary by Burt Coons – pen name Plunger – about the three phases of a bull market. He looked into how things were going when the first phase of the great 1949 post-WW II U.S. stock market suffered a devastating triple top correction a few years later. Here's how Coons discusses it:

This (correction) convinced the majority of market opinion that the bull was over. However there was a young independent observer by the name of Richard Russell who noted that the market had not yet shown characteristics of a phase III. Instead the market had been busy climbing the wall of worry and hadn’t had time to become manic yet. He therefore made a market call that one should buy the correction and hold on and wait for the phase III. His career took off from there.


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