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September 21 2018

moneymetals

Oil Prices, War Fears, and Rising Inflation All Point to Gold Strength Audio Player

Well now, without further delay, let’s hear this week’s exclusive interview with the man who famously advises people to have always have guns, gold and a getaway plan.

Gerald celente

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps most well-known Trends forecaster in the world, and it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for the time again today, and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Oh, thanks for having me on, Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well Gerald, one of the hot topics in the markets today is the escalating trade tensions. Trump just announced another $200 billion in tariffs on China and he looks ready to more than double that if the Chinese should retaliate. The President is confident the U.S. can win a trade war. Do you share that optimism? How do you see this playing out?

Gerald Celente: I absolutely share that. Because I mean, here's the deal. If your or I were to do business and I'm making $350 billion more than you are, are you going to want to renegotiate this? Hey listen, something's wrong over here. So, when you look at even with the tariffs that Trump is putting on, that still amounts to a very small percentage of China's GDP, about 0.3%, or something like that, 5%, 6% tops. So China's going to negotiate. They're not going to give up a very lucrative business deal, so they could keep making more when the other business partner wants a better share.

Mike Gleason: And how do you see the escalating tariffs impacting markets? So far the response appears mixed. The dollar seems to be benefiting, and metals are suffering. We aren't sure the markets have it right when it comes to the dollar though. It seems to us that tariffs should drive price inflation. Either Americans pay a higher price for the imported goods, or replace them with more expensive domestic products. And the Chinese aren't likely to be buying as many dollars or treasuries if exports to the U.S. fall – to say nothing of their ability to wage and all-out currency war against the dollar. But so far, at least the dollar is getting stronger in foreign exchange markets. What are we missing?

Gerald Celente: Well, I think what people are missing is they're making too much of a deal of the trade war. It's every day. It's almost become stupidity with the business media. Every day they're going, “the market goes up because trade wars eased. The market’s down because trade fear is increased.” I mean, come on. What are they kidding? I mean, the world is bigger than that. Even what you saw car sales start slumping in China, the headlines blamed the trade wars. Does the average person give a damn about a trade war? They're buying what they're buying, they got what they got. If they don't have it, they don't spend it. If they have it, they spend it. They don't know what's going on behind the scenes and the details of a trade war. The media has dumbed down so much… it's every day. It's one excuse. And as far as the dollar going up, it's interest rates.

I mean, the United States is raising interest rates. You're looking at what, even with the United States raising interest rates, what are you looking at the overnight, the Fed funds rate? 1.75 to two? And what is it 1.5 in Canada and the U.K. Negative interest rates in Europe and the European Union. Negative in Denmark. Negative in Sweden. Negative in Japan. I mean, it's ridiculous. So what I'm saying, Mike is that the markets cannot take a rate increase. That's why the currencies are going down. And matter of fact, we just heard from the number two guy in China, Lee, saying that to think that the Chinese, he said, want to devalue our currency is ridiculous. He said we're not going to make up that much more trade on having our currency decline. Because by the same token, you look at China, what are they the largest importer of energy in the world? And now the Yuan is going down, and oil prices are going up. Oh, and what are oil prices based on? Petrodollars. So now as their currency declines, they got to input more energy. And it's based in dollars, as the dollar gets stronger, they don't want this to happen.

So to me it's a lot of misinformation out there. And again, I'm no Trump fan. I mean, I think the guy is ridiculous on a lot of stuff. But the media is so anti Trump that they'll keep using one play a day, and overlooking the bigger story.

Full Podcast here: https://goo.gl/9oqzzB

September 19 2018

moneymetals

Trump’s Backdoor Power Play to Rein In the Fed

“Just run the presses – print money.”

That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser Gary Cohn to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book Fear: Trump in the White House.

Trump disputes many of the anecdotes Woodward assembled. But regardless of whether the President used those exact words, they do reflect an “easy money” philosophy that he has expressed many times before.

Trump Likes Low Rates, Loose Money

President Trump has described himself as a “low interest rate person.”

Trump and the federal reserve

This past summer, Trump launched a very public attack on the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking campaign. He wants it to stop because it’s making the dollar “too strong” and threatening to undercut his tax cut fiscal stimulus.

There’s only so much dollar strength the U.S. economy and U.S. debt and equity markets can take. President Trump is keenly aware of the risks.

A Fed rate hike next week is a given at this point.

The Trump-versus-Fed feud will likely heat up again in December if the central bank raises its benchmark short-term rate at its scheduled policy meeting. Although a December hike is far from certain, Fed chair Jay Powell and company seem intent on raising interest rates again – and possibly a couple more times in 2019 if the markets don’t melt down before then.

Additional tightening will increasingly put the central bank on the wrong side of the President’s Twitter feed. If Donald J. Trump wants to put more than social media pressure on Fed officials, he can threaten to remove them.

Trump himself appointed Powell, a decision he now apparently regrets. It would be unprecedented for a president to fire a Fed chairman before his term is up... but not necessarily inconceivable. After all, President Trump has done a number of unprecedented things, as the anti-Trump media are wont to remind us.


Read more: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/09/18/trumps-power-play-fed-001619

September 14 2018

moneymetals

Gold vs. Bitcoin

Since its introduction in 2009, bitcoin has taken the financial world by storm.

The enormous gains in bitcoin’s value are attracting attention around the world, both positive and negative. People ranging from everyday consumers to central bankers now have an eye on the digital currency.

Some remain skeptical. Several high-profile hacks in which tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars-worth of bitcoin were stolen from bitcoin exchanges have raised doubts that a purely digital asset can ever be secured. Others wonder if money without official government backing and no physical manifestation can really succeed.

On the other hand, many see bitcoin as the future of money – destined to end run banks and governments and the fiat currency systems they control.

What is Bitcoin?

what is bitcoinBitcoin is a peer-to-peer, decentralized, digital currency with more than 10 million holders as of this writing. The lure of decentralization, lower transaction fees, and pseudo-anonymity has fostered adoption around the world. And people are increasingly looking for alternatives as central banks around the world continue to abuse national currencies.

There is a particular concern regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s perpetual devaluation of its Federal Reserve Notes – commonly known as dollars. Although it is no longer a true dollar, which was historically defined in terms of a certain amount of silver, today’s U.S. dollar is still the world’s reserve currency. And Fed officials recognize no limits in terms of how many dollars can be created.

​Check it out here: 
https://www.moneymetals.com/guides/bitcoin-vs-gold


August 21 2018

moneymetals

Spot Prices Are Falling, But Premiums Are on the Rise

Gold and silver premiums – the price dealers add to the melt value of an item to cover manufacturing and overhead – began climbing in the past two weeks.

Many clients see falling gold and silver spot prices as an opportunity to buy, but some are disappointed to find the premium for the item they want is suddenly higher, negating some of the price drop.

The challenge they face is that lots of other bargain hunters are trying to jump on the same opportunity.

Supply & demand

Premiums are very sensitive to supply and demand in the retail market for finished coins, bars, and rounds, and the reasons are pretty straightforward.

First, when prices drop, retail bullion investors stop selling and start buying. That has a profound effect on the availability of resale, or secondary market, product inventory.

The large quantities coins, bars, and rounds coming back to market in the past year or two have driven premiums to the extraordinarily low levels we saw recently. Now, supply from the secondary market is drying up fast.

Second, there are only a few mints and refiners making coins, bars, and rounds. Like any manufacturer, they gear production to market demand. Scaling up takes a bit of time, and it isn’t something most will do without first developing some confidence that the higher demand will persist.

​Continue reading: https://goo.gl/cRFcUF​

August 20 2018

moneymetals

Dr. Engelhardt: Economy Beholden to Fed Interest Rate Policy; Here's One Way Gold Could Reach $14,000+...

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Lucas Engelhardt associate professor of economics at Kent State University. Dr. Engelhardt is an Austrian economist who has been a guest lecturer at the Mises Institute and in his teaching specializes in macro-economics in the examination of the business cycle, and it's certainly a real pleasure to have him on with us today. Lucas, thanks so much for taking the time and welcome.

Dr. Lucas Engelhardt: Well thank you for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, I'm excited to have you on today because there is a lot to discuss with you. For starters I think a good place to begin is the business cycle. Now, but before we get into the misunderstandings that the Keynesians seems to have about this, explain the business cycle if you would and why it's important in order to have a proper understanding of monetary policy.

Dr. Lucas Engelhardt: Sure. Now, as you mentioned, I come from the Austrian economic framework. And Austrian economics describes the business cycle as the consequence of manipulations happening in the money supply, specifically in credit markets. So starting from that point, so how the business cycle happens is that we have somebody in the banking system. We know in modern America it would be the Federal Reserve is generally responsible for this. Decides to push down interest rates, normally to stimulate the economy.

Austrians, we definitely do not deny that this actually does work for a while. That the lower interest rate does actually encourage investment, especially in very long structures of production. The types of things that won't pay off maybe for five, 10, or even more years. We see lots of research and development, lots of construction, these types of things happening when interest rates get pushed down.

The problem is that the way that the Fed pushes interest rates down, as I suspect most of your listeners know, is by adding additional money into the economy through the banking system. Eventually this money gets out into the economy and prices start going up. You have more money, the money loses value, the flip side of that is that prices are higher. It takes more money to buy anything.

Now, there are a couple ways this can go. The central bank could just ignore this fact and continue with the low interest rate policy, just pumping out more and more money to the point where the money is worthless. We see that happen right throughout history, and we see that happening today in places like Venezuela. Now, what the Fed has done historically most of the time is get nervous about this rise in prices and start tamping back on the increase in the money supply. Of course, as soon as they do that interest rates go up. Once interest rates go up, all these investments that looked great when interest rates were low, that research and development, building new houses and what have you, stop looking as good.

So, we see all of these areas that expanded then start contracting, and that's where we see the bust of the business cycle come in. We see there it's really all centered on what the Federal Reserve in modern America is doing in interest rates.

Mike Gleason: Now, you come at things from an Austrian viewpoint as you mentioned. I'm curious if sometimes you feel like a lone wolf in the wilderness, because nearly everyone in the mainstream financial world and among the central bankers and central planners throughout the globe seems to have that Keynesian mindset where government and a tight management of monetary policy is the answer to every economic problem. So, why is it dangerous in your view, expand the point if you would about a centrally planned economy instead of letting the free market forces dictate things. What are they so afraid of?

Full podcast here: https://goo.gl/dUWCp8​

August 07 2018

moneymetals

The U.S. Government To Fork Out A Half Trillion To Service Its Debt In 2018

The U.S. Government is going to surpass another significant milestone this year. According to the recently released data from the TreasuryDirect.gov, the government will fork out a stunning half trillion dollars just to service its debt in 2018. Unfortunately, as U.S. interest rates rise, along with ever-expanding public debt, the cost to service the debt will continue to increase.

In just the first nine months of the year, the U.S. interest expense has increased by an additional $40 billion. Last year, the U.S. Government paid only $375 billion to service its debt from October to June, but this year it has jumped to $415 billion:

U.S. interest expense 2017 vs 2018 (oct-jun)

Now, if we consider that the U.S. Treasury paid $83 billion in interest expense for the three remaining months last year, and add it to the current total, it would equal $498 billion. However, the U.S. interest expense is up over 10% already. So, if we assume that the interest expense for July-Sept will also be up 10%, then the estimated total debt service for fiscal 2018 will reach $506-$510 billion.

Continue Reading:

August 03 2018

moneymetals

Trump’s Fed Feud; Indexing Capital Gains Taxes to Inflation?

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Samuel pelaez

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Samuel Pelaez, CIO and Portfolio Manager at Galileo Global Equity Advisors, a Canadian subsidiary of U.S. Global Investors. Sam manages Galileo's Growth and Income fund as well as the Technology and Blockchain fund and also follows the natural resource and gold mining space quite closely. And it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today.

Sam, thanks so much for the time and welcome.

Samuel Pelaez: Thanks, Mike. It's a great pleasure to join you. I think this is the first time.

Mike Gleason: Yeah, absolutely. Excited to get a chance to talk to you finally. You've been talking about commodities being way undervalued. You published a chart back in the spring showing the value of the S&P GSCI Index of commodities companies relative to the broader S&P 500 Index. The ratio is near all-time lows. Since that chart was published in April not a great deal has changed, so talk about where we're at here in commodities now and give us your thoughts on what the value proposition looks like today because they certainly have been laggards compared to the broader markets.

Samuel Pelaez: Yeah, absolutely. That's my favorite all-time chart I think. I'm a big proponent of commodities and natural resource investing. Keep in mind, that chart goes over 60 years or so of markets. We've had cycles like this three times or this will be the third time. Twice in the past we’ve seen that sort of extreme rating where commodities are so undervalued relative to the broader market as measured by the S&P 500.

What that suggests is that we may be at a juncture here that provides an opportunity to invest in resources that we haven't had for over 20 years. Last time this happened was coincidental with the NASDAQ 1990-2000 boom. That was the time when the commodities were as undervalued relative to the broader market. And what happened since was obviously the big industrialization of China commodities did very well for a decade up until 2008 and even a little bit further than that.


Check out the full podcast here.: 
https://www.moneymetals.com/podcasts/2018/08/03/bull-market-natural-resources-001588

July 31 2018

moneymetals

GOP Congressman Investigates Undisclosed Gold Market Intervention by China and the Exchange Stabilization Fund


Rep. Alex Mooney (R-WV) Calls Out Fed & Treasury for Dodging Questions on Gold Activities

Washington, DC (July 31, 2018) – A member of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee is calling out the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury for dodging questions about their activities involving America’s gold reserves.

In a letter dated July 27, Representative Alex Mooney (R-WV) wrote to Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and Steven Mnuchin, Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, after receiving perfunctory responses to his April 24th letter, noting “a few questions were either not addressed at all or not fully addressed.”

In particular, the Fed and Treasury would not articulate any U.S. policy toward gold and refused to comment on historical U.S. State Department documents pointing to a U.S. policy of “driving gold out of the world financial system in favor of the Federal Reserve Note or Special Drawing Rights issued by the International Monetary Fund.”

In his follow-up letter, Rep. Mooney provided evidence of involvement by the Exchange Stabilization Fund in the gold market and called attention to “the recent correlation of the gold price with the price of the Chinese yuan and the valuation of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights.”

Check out the full press release


July 26 2018

moneymetals

Silver Threads among the Gold: What the Tea Leaves Seem to Be Telling Us

The ongoing July silver (and gold) slam has a 2008 feel about it. Important data point elements are different, but there's an air of panic on the part of physical precious metals' owners.

"Major trend lines" being broken to the downside; physical metals' buying (in the U.S. off significantly so far on the year; (some) long-term silver holders giving up the ghost and selling their metal below spot.

About the only thing we have yet to see – on a large scale – is "paper metal" being offered at a price well below what a customer would actually pay for the physical.

In late 2008, while silver was being quoted in the markets at $9.50/ounce, you simply could not find it in "real life" for much less than $12 the ounce.

How Might George Soros Approach This Situation?

In a recent interview for The New York Times Magazine, George Soros talked about his years' running the very successful Quantum Fund – which yielded investors an almost unheard of 40% annual rate of return.

He spoke of his "theory of reflexivity" – the idea that "peoples' biases and perceptions can move prices in directions that don't accord with the underlying reality."

He would "nibble" on an idea until investors' emotions became increasingly disconnected from what was really taking place – or what was almost certainly slated to be – once more balanced circumstances had come to pass. Then he would substantially add to his position.

Soros didn't always get it right, but when he did, he made a killing. His most famous bet was shorting the British pound... against the Bank of England.

Soros claimed his strength as an investor was in recognizing and acting on what he referred to as “far from equilibrium” moments.

SGE silver delivery volume chart

Shanghai International Gold Exchange silver volume continues to rise sharply.

A Technical Take

As for near-term action, Hidden Pivot maven, Rick Ackerman wrote recently in his Rick's Picks column, that silver has the potential to make a large move either up or down, depending upon what the price does on the hourly and monthly charts.



July 23 2018

moneymetals

Gold & Silver Need THIS to Unfold before They Rally Sharply Higher...

Well now, for more on the unfolding trade war, the selloff in commodities and gold, and much more, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Greg weldon

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Greg Weldon, CEO and president of Weldon Financial. Greg has over three decades of market research and trading experience, specializing in the metals and commodity markets, and his close connection with the metals led him to author a book back in 2006, titled Gold Trading Boot Camp, where he accurately predicted the implosion of the U.S. credit market and urged people to buy gold when it was only $550 an ounce.

He's a regular presenter at financial conferences throughout the country, and is a highly sought-after guest on many financial shows. And it's always great to have him on the Money Metals Podcast. Greg, good to talk to you again. Welcome back.

Greg Weldon: Thanks, Mike. My pleasure.

Mike Gleason: Well, Greg, we've been keeping a close eye on the dollar, as I know you have been as well. For metals investors, the rally in the dollar is providing some serious headwinds. When we last spoke in early May, the rally had begun. You weren't surprised, and thought it might run up to the vicinity of 96 on the DXY Index, and that's looking like a very good call. We're just a bit over 95 currently. But you thought the rally could fizzle out, and the dollar could be back on the slide somewhere in the second half of the year. So, what are your thoughts currently? Has anything changed your outlook for the greenback, Greg?

Greg Weldon: Yeah. I think the odds of the dollar continuing higher have expanded here, and I think it's a function of the Fed. I think we got information in the last week or so that is, frankly, pertinent, because if you kind of trace back to what we were talking about in May, we started to see signs of stagflation. We started to see signs of stress in the second derivatives of where the growth had been. A place like Germany, an export juggernaut. When you start to see some issues in places like the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, they provide semi-finished goods to Germany that finishes them and exports them. So, we had already kind of seen some cracks in the global macro dynamic globally.

And the question then was, "well, if inflation's going higher, will the Fed follow inflation even at the risk of potentially bringing the hammer down on the backend on the consumer who is extremely leveraged here, unprecedented borrowing.” Same thing as 2006 and 2007. You're borrowing against unrealized paper profits. In that case it was mortgages, in your home, the value, all right?

In this cases it's the stock market. Like the case in 2006 and '07, home prices will never go down, right? Well, we learned that's not true. And then the case here it seems like stock prices will never go down, right? Passive investment, just pile in, and you'll be rich, and here's the American dream in a nutshell, no problem. Well, we can call into question that, of course, and if the stock market declines and consumers are on the hook, you're going to be facing a very similar situation where the consumer's kind of upside down.

Having said all of that, the question really puts the focus on the Fed, and what the Fed just told us in their monetary report, which is the basis for which Chairman Powell is using as his testimony here on Capitol Hill, The Humphrey-Hawkins semiannual report to Congress. The Fed was very specific. I was really surprised at the language in this report. It's 71 pages. I went to every single page. It took me six hours yesterday doing this, but it was really worth it because the Fed say in this report, not only do we want to get to a level where we're at the neutral rate, the kind of natural rate, the neutral rate of Fed policy which we've been saying all along. They want to get to neutral, which is somewhere between two and two and a half based on where inflation is.

Well, the Fed just told us, "We don't want to just get to neutral, we want to get a slight bit above neutral, i.e. we actually want to get tight here." All right? And if inflation's moving higher and the Fed wants to get tight, meaning above the rate of inflation, they're behind the curve and they're going to have to move more quickly and this was kind of the tone of this monetary report.

And the sense was, they're admitting, "Hey! Inflation is now above our target for the first time, that doesn't mean we're slowing down.” So this is bothering commodity markets because it's lifting the dollar. The Fed is presumably going to be tighter, it's going to chase inflation, doesn't care about what the back end economic dynamic might be and that you throw in the trade dynamic, which is having a huge impact, i.e. look at the declining commodities. Look at the decline in China. Look at the decline in Canada in terms of some of the economic numbers, let alone the markets. Look at the pressure on emerging market currencies.

The other thing the Fed said in this report was the external risk is primarily seen in Argentina, Turkey, China, and emerging Asia. We run spreadsheets here where I have my own proprietary algorithms that I wrote back in the 1980's. I'm a math geek by heart, by history and we have algorithms that we use to track the ETF's out there, all of them. Well, I ran a full scan yesterday and the top 25 trends right now in the ETF world, including international ETFs, commodity ETFs, fixed income ETFs, all the sector ETFs in the U.S., 25 top trends, 24 were bearish and it was spread out among metals, commodities, China, and emerging Asia. All the things the Fed just cited as their risk factors.

So, my question then becomes, again, does the Fed pay attention? Is the Fed doing their normal puppeteering here where they're trying to be vocally tighter so they can use words to kind of ease some without actually having to totally shift policy and start cutting rates? I don't know, but I think right now, whereas maybe we might think that the dollar would soften when the Fed rhetoric softened, that's not happening because the Fed rhetoric is not softening. In fact, it's getting harder and this is becoming a problem. You see it in emerging markets, you see it in commodities, and you certainly see it in gold and silver.

You can read or listen to the entire podcast here

July 17 2018

moneymetals

Gold & Silver Investors’ 8 Commandments for Avoiding Rip Offs

For every promising investment opportunity you come across, there are multiple opportunities for bad-faith brokers and hucksters to try to rip you off.

It could be undisclosed commissions and fees in an annuity, unwanted accounts opened up by a banker seeking additional fees, trades sabotaged by market manipulators, or any number of other schemes.

Rip-off artists, unfortunately, operate within the precious metals space as well.

Most recently, a scammer posing as a government agent in order to gain people’s trust was convicted of selling counterfeit gold bars and phony Morgan silver dollars. He took one investor for $11,000, according to reports.

You can avoid this type of scam as well as other common cheats when buying or selling precious by heeding the following guidelines.

1. Avoid “Too Good to Be True” Deals

If a price on a bullion product sounds too good to be true – or comes with exorbitant incentives or exaggerated claims – you should be suspicious.

Too good to be true!

Gold and silver bullion products do not legitimately sell below spot prices. Individuals holding precious metals can visit a dealer and sell items immediately, for full value. Given that everyone has this option, it is highly likely anyone offering items well below actual value is trying to stick it to you.

Legitimate dealers cannot afford to offer items way below cost either. Dealers must charge small premiums above spot prices to reflect product minting costs and the costs of doing business. (One notable exception: 90% silver U.S. coins minted prior to 1965 (aka “junk” silver) which exhibit significant wear occasionally become available at melt value or even slightly lower.)


Check out the other commandments.. (https://goo.gl/Zb8zg4)

July 10 2018

moneymetals

How NOT to Become a Casualty in the War on Cash

Lots of bullion investors wonder if the metal they hold might one day be needed for barter and trade. They bought gold and silver, at least in part, as a form of insurance. It just might come in handy in an extreme circumstance such as a currency crisis of the sort Venezuelans are grappling with right now.

However, a hyper-inflationary collapse in the dollar isn’t the only dire scenario to insure against.

War on cash

It is now clear that the dollar, and the financial network it runs on, is a mechanism for controlling people who don’t toe the government line.

That fact may be a greater reason for alarm than the prospect of a dollar collapse. But it gets far less consideration.

Wall Street banks and government regulators have teamed up against your liberty and your privacy.

Officials would like to track 100% of what you do with your money, and the banks would like to charge a fee on 100% of those transactions. Those motivations are at the root of the today’s war on cash – the push to eliminate paper cash and replace it with electronic transactions.

The Bank Secrecy Act will soon turn 20 years old. Banks have filed millions of secret Suspicious Activity Reports on transactions involving cash. And Americans performing a transaction involving more than $10,000 in cash may have an IRS Form 8300 documenting their transaction filed with the federal government.

Americans trying to transact privately with cash are being watched, and they have no idea how closely.

​Continue reading: ​
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/07/09/not-become-a-casualty-in-war-on-cash-001571

June 26 2018

moneymetals

U.S. Gold Exports to London Surge

As U.S. gold exports to Hong Kong and China fell 25% in the first four months of the year, London picked up the slack. According to the USGS, U.S. gold exports to London surged more than doubled from January to April, compared to the same period last year. Interestingly, the amount of gold exported to London during this period nearly equaled the total U.S. domestic gold mine supply.

From the data reported in the USGS Gold Mineral Industry Survey’s, U.S. gold exports to the U.K. (London) jumped to 64.3 metric tons (mt) Jan-Apr, versus 25.5 mt during the first four months last year:

Total u.s. gold exports to the u.k.

Here is the breakdown of U.S. gold exports to London for each month:

Jan = 12.2 mt

Feb = 12.1 mt

Mar = 21.2 mt

Apr = 18.8 mt

Total 64.3 mt

As I have mentioned, a lot London’s gold is exported to China and Switzerland. And then, the majority of Switzerland’s gold is exported to Hong Kong and China. For example, according to the statistics on GoldChartsrus, in March, the U.K. exported 16 mt of gold to China and 32 mt of gold to Switzerland. In the very same month, Switzerland exported 80 mt of gold to Hong Kong and China. So, most of the west’s gold still ends up in Hong Kong and China.




Continue reading the article 

June 22 2018

moneymetals

Gerald Celente:Why You Still Need Guns, Gold, and a Getaway

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world, and it's always great to have him on with us. Gerald, thanks for taking the time again today, and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Thanks for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, the potential for a trade war is the hot topic in the financial press these days. Around here, the question is what escalating concerns over trade might mean for the precious metals markets, and we would like to get your thoughts on that. But first, please give us your take on the President's trade policy in general. Some people think the U.S. has been a major beneficiary of trade. We've been able to import real goods and services in exchange for increasingly worthless dollars. Others hate what so-called globalization has done to U.S. manufacturing and think Trump is delivering a long overdue warning shot to nations who have taken advantage of the U.S. So, where do you stand on all this?

Gerald Celente: Well, we've been in the business since 1980. When NAFTA began, actually under Reagan began it trying to push through and Bush Sr., and they couldn't push through much, but Bill Clinton was the one that really brought us into NAFTA and China into the World Trade Organization. So, you just look at the numbers, and the numbers speak for themselves. Before we were in NAFTA, we had basically a neutral exchange in terms of merchandise trade deficit between Mexico and the United States. And now we have a $71 billion deficit. Who would do business like that? Would you do business with someone where you lose $71 billion a year? Then when you look at China ... and we lost by the way about 975,000 manufacturing jobs, and Clinton promised that we would gain 200,000. But I didn't have sex with that woman, Monica Lewinsky, and I smoked but I didn't inhale, so you know the guy's full of it from the beginning and to the end, and he's still a hero.

Then you look at China, what he did bringing them into the World Trade Organization. We lost about 3.5 million jobs, and we have a merchandise trade deficit with them of $375 billion a year. You can't blame Mexico or China or other countries on this. You have to, as we look at it, put the blame on the companies that went overseas to get their products made by cheap labor and then bring them back to the United States and sell them so they could gain greater profits. If you can't have an agreement with workers in your country to pay them a living wage, go to a slave labor country and get them made over there is basically what happened.

For example, 97% of the shoes and clothing that we wear are made overseas. When you go back to the 1990s, that wasn't true. It was being made over here. And then you look at the standard of living and the declines. The facts are all there. A matter of fact, we're right now, our standard of living of real personal income is below 1999 levels. Again, we don't blame anybody other than the ones that did it. China and all these other countries, Vietnam, they didn't have the technology. The Europeans and the Americans gave them the technology to do it. So, they sold us out.

So what Trump is doing with this, as we see it, this is typical Trump's Art of the Deal negotiation strategy that we point out in our Trend Alerts. You take North Korea, for example. He calls the guy Rocket Man, a moron, a maniac, and then after he meets with him, he's an honorable, great guy. The deal is done. He goes to the extremes. And that's what we believe he's doing with the tariff situation, because again, China's only buying about $130 billion worth of our goods. And they're selling us $375 billion. Are they going to kill the deal? Of course not. So, there's going to be a negotiation of this. Bottom line is, Mike, at this level, we don't see a trade war coming yet. It's not in the cards right now.

Mike Gleason: Now, when it comes to the gold and silver markets, the impact of trade policy will, we think, largely depend upon how that policy impacts the U.S. dollar. So far, the foreign exchange markets are reacting as if a potential trade war might be good for the dollar. It has been strengthening relative to other world currencies. Now, we're not so sure the markets have it right. The U.S. may run massive trade deficits on lots of products, but the one product that we export a ton of is the U.S. dollar. Anything that reduces this demand for the greenback overseas is liable to cause some problems, and the dollar is already under attack as the global reserve currency. What do you think? Will these escalating trade conflicts be good or bad for the dollar, and good or bad news for gold?


Read/Listen to the entire podcast here: 

June 13 2018

moneymetals

WHY HARRY DENT’S $400 FORECAST FOR GOLD IS WRONG…. Price Is Heading Up Much Higher

Harry Dent has been making the rounds suggesting that for gold to get back to its pre-bubble price, it would need to fall to $400 or $450. If we were to believe Mr. Dent, then it would be bad news for gold investors. However, Harry Dent’s gold price forecast is quite faulty because he fails to consider the most critical factor.

Harry Dent has become well-known on the internet for his $750 gold price forecast. He bases a low gold price upon what he calls “The end of the Commodity Super-Cycle.” Dent sees nothing but massive deflation ahead. Thus this will cause the gold price to fall along with all commodities.

Unfortunately for Dent, his gold price forecast is incorrect because he fails to incorporate the Falling EROI (Energy Returned On Investment) and energy into his analysis. Dent, like many in the financial industry, believes in the “Energy Tooth Fairy” (a term coined by Louis Arnoux). What I mean by the Energy Tooth Fairy is the notion that economy will continue to grow forever because plenty of cheap energy will always be available. Thus, economic and business cycles, forecasted by Dent, will also continue forever.

Before I explain in detail why Dent is totally wrong on his $400 gold price forecast, here he is in a recent interview on Kitco:

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62jrl_irLzs)


Dent makes several forecasts in the interview, but his price target for gold is the most startling for precious metals investors. He says gold is heading for $650-$750, but that is just the first target. Dent then says, “Ultimately for gold to erase its bubble and get back to its bubble origin, it would be $400-$450. Once gold hits $400 or $450, then Dent would be a buyer.

I gather Dent is suggesting that gold became a bubble in 2004 when it went above $400 an ounce:

Gold price 20 year chart june 11 2018

As we can see in the chart above, the gold price never fell below $1,050 since the 2008 Financial Meltdown. Is Harry Dent suggesting that the gold price will drop another $600 from its low of $1,050 in 2015??




June 12 2018

moneymetals

The Dangers of Investing Based on Phony Government Statistics

President Donald Trump recently took to Twitter to boast, “The U.S. has an increased economic value of more than 7 Trillion Dollars since the Election. May be the best economy in the history of our country. Record Jobs numbers. Nice!”

“We ran out of words to describe how good the jobs numbers are,” reported Neil Irwin of the New York Times, amplified in a Trump retweet.

Increase

If you believe the headline numbers, joblessness is at a generational low with the economy booming.

Trillions in nominal value added to the stock market since Trump’s election. GDP up over 3% in the second quarter. 223,000 jobs added in May. Unemployment at an 18-year low of 3.8%.

On the surface, this all paints a beautiful picture for the economy and stock market. But dig a little deeper, and the numbers aren’t quite as bright they appear. All that glitters is not gold.

Headline Unemployment Number Is Fake News

Donald Trump himself put his finger on one of the main flaws with the unemployment number back when he was a private citizen.

“Unemployment rate only dropped because more people are out of labor force & have stopped looking for work. Not a real recovery, phony numbers,” he posted on September 7th, 2012.

The headline unemployment number isn’t any less phony in 2018. Though it has improved under Trump’s presidency – in large part because of his pro-growth tax cuts and deregulation – the statistic is still derived from a dubious formula.

Back in 2012, Trump rightly pointed to the large numbers of workers who had dropped out of the labor force but weren’t counted among the ranks of the unemployed.

You can find the article here:(https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/06/11/the-dangers-of-investing-based-on-phony-governments-statistics-001550)

June 08 2018

moneymetals

Pento: Inflation to Skyrocket When Fed Reverts to New QE & Interest Rate Cuts


Michael pento

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome back Michael Pento, president and founder of Pento Portfolio Strategies and author of the book, The Coming Bond Market Collapse: How to Survive the Demise of the U.S. Debt Market. Michael is a well-known money manager and a fantastic market commentator, and over the past few years, has been a wonderful guest and one of our favorites here on the Money Metals Podcast. We always love getting his highly-studied Austrian economist viewpoint.

Michael, welcome back, and thanks for joining us again.

Michael Pento: Thanks for having me back on, Mike.

Mike Gleason: Well, Michael, we were struck by one statistic in particular in the latest edition of your always great Pentonomics commentary and we urge people to sign up for your email list, so they can start getting those themselves, if they're not doing that already. But in that piece, you referenced Chapter 11 bankruptcy spiking 63% in March versus the same month a year ago. This is a dramatic move, and it tells a very different story than the one people are hearing all day long on CNBC these days. You also mentioned the carnage in the retail sector, rising delinquencies in the subprime auto loans and other indicators, which are back to levels we last saw just before the 2008 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the talking heads are going on about how strong the U.S. economy is, and to be fair, they can point at statistics such as unemployment, strong performance in the equities, at least until recently, consumer sentiments, and other positive signs. At this point, most Americans think the U.S. economy is in better shape and likely to get stronger, but we know at key turning points in the markets, most people wind up being wrong. Now, you are certainly sounding the alarm here, Michael, so give us your thoughts on the real state of the U.S. economy, and what are a couple of the key indicators, and what are those indicators telling you about what we should expect in the months ahead?

Michael Pento: Well, Mike, first of all, this kind of reminds me a little bit of maybe late 2007, early 2008. And I want to remind all your listeners that the economy entered a recession officially, for NBER rates recessions, in December of 2007. We were already in a recession at the end of 2007, but nobody really knew it. The stock market was still doing okay. And if you look at the metrics, some of the metrics that you quoted in that question still looked very well and fine and dandy, but underneath that ersatz construct, the economy was eroding very quickly. The yield curve had already inverted. Bank lending was drying up. And home prices were already in the process of rolling over. You fast-forward to today, and you can point to many things that will make you think the economy is doing well. You look at the JOLTS, Job Opening Labor Turnover construct. If you look at ISM Manufacturing surveys, we still have some time to go before this recession becomes absolutely, positively manifest.

But here's what's going on underneath. Let me just show you how, and let me try to prove to your listeners and your audience why this particular edifice is built of cards, this economic edifice is going to wash away. Let's just take a couple of things that I want to point out to your audience. In the wake of the Great Recession, it became clear to me that the level of asset prices along with the amount of debt outstanding in the world absolutely mandates that interest rates remain near 0% and never normalize. Otherwise, the entire artificial financial construct falls apart. This is the only thing keeping everything together. So, this is the rubber bands and tape and glue that's keeping Japan solvent, that's keeping the eurozone solvent, that's keeping China any semblance of solvency, and even in the United States.

Let me give you an example of what I'm talking about. If you look at the total value of equities as a percent of GDP, it's now at a record high, very close to 150%. If interest rates move too far off the zero bound, that ratio would close by the denominator, which is GDP, falling, but the numerator, which is asset prices, crashing much, much faster. Let me give you one more example. You touched on it a little bit when you mentioned business debt. Corporate debt as a percentage of GDP is also at a record high. These are nominal records and as a percentage of the economy. And also, the credit quality of that debt is at a record low. As this ratio contracts, what you'll see is GDP contracting again, but corporate debt defaulting in spades, which will manifest into a global recession/depression, which will be marked by rapid deflation. That is the condition of the global economy today. It's held together by artificially low rates, which are now in the process of being removed.

Don't forget, in the United States, QE ended in, I believe, 2014. QE ended. We have raised rates six times. There'll be a seventh rate increase next week. The ECB went from €80 billion per month to €30 billion. They'll probably end that program. We'll find out more next week. They'll probably end that program by the end of this year. And what you have is a condition when you have global debt as 330% of GDP, $230 trillion, up $70 trillion since the Great Recession. Interest rates are going to start to rise, because central banks have the hubris to believe that they solved all of the world's problems. And it is that rising debt, which is going to pop asset prices and pop corporate debt and personal debt and student loans and credit cards and leveraged loans, CLOs, these are all of the things that are going to pop simultaneously. It's going to happen very quickly. And unfortunately, I believe it is going to be much worse, the fallout is going to be much worse, than that of 2009.

Mike Gleason: People listening to this would say, "Well, why do they have to raise rates? Maybe they'll just stand where they are or go with the lower," but obviously there's a credibility factor here that's going to probably prevent them from reversing course, at least talking about the Fed. They've talked about raising interest rates. They're probably going to do it because their credibility is at stake. Isn't that fair to say?


You can find the entire podcast here​

June 06 2018

moneymetals

Total U.S. Public Debt & Interest Expense Hit A New Record High

The total U.S. public debt hit a new record high of $21.145 trillion on the last day in May. AS the U.S. debt increased, so did the interest expense which jumped by more than $26 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year. That's correct; the United States government forked out an additional $26 billion to service its debt (Oct-Apr) versus the same period last year.

While the U.S. debt reached a new high on May 31st, it took nearly two months to do it. Let me explain. During tax season, the total U.S. public debt actually declined from a peak of $21.135 trillion on April 10th to a low of $21.033 trillion on May 3rd. Since then, the U.S. debt has been steadily moving higher (including some daily fluctuations):

If you spend some time on the TreasuryDirect - Home site, you will see that the total public debt doesn’t go up in a straight line. There are days or weeks where the total debt declines. However, the overall trend is higher.


Continue reading here

​:​
(https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/06/05/us-debt-new-record-001510​)​

June 05 2018

moneymetals

How Savvy Investors Do (and Don’t) Hedge against Inflation

Inflation is a corrosive force that gradually – and sometimes rapidly – eats away at the nominal value of savings and investments.

It is perhaps the biggest threat looming on the horizon for millions of retirees who have been steered into assets marketed as “conservative” – such as dollar-denominated money market accounts, bonds, and annuities.

Inflation silently robbing you of purchasing power since 1913

According to the Aegon Retirement Readiness Survey 2018, an alarmingly large proportion of the population doesn’t understand basic financial concepts such as inflation.

Consider this question from the survey: “Imagine that the interest rate on your savings account was 1 percent per year and inflation was 2 percent per year. After 1 year, how much would you be able to buy with the money in this account?”

The question is actually even easier to answer than it first appears. To get it right you only have to select among a list of possible choices that includes “less than today,” “more than today,” and “the same as today.”

Obviously, if inflation is running at 2% a year, then a 1% yield on your savings is neither growing nor preserving your purchasing power. The correct answer is “less than today.”

That may be obvious to you. But it’s not to everyone.

Among U.S. respondents, only 55% answered the inflation question correctly!

A score of “55” is equivalent to an “F” – as a nation, we are outright failing to grasp the basic concept of how inflation negatively affects savings.

Widespread public ignorance about inflation works, perversely, to the advantage of governments, central banks, commercial banks, and peddlers of fee-laden, inflation-lagging financial products such as fixed annuities.

Investors who are savvy about the inflation threat know that conventional annuities, bonds, and savings accounts are all vulnerable to losing value in real terms.

But those seeking protection from inflation can still run into trouble by venturing into flawed "inflation hedges."

Think twice before sinking money into the following assets…



June 04 2018

moneymetals

Money Metals Is the Best Place to Sell Your Metal (Even If We Don’t Think You Should)

We don’t talk about it much, but Money Metals Exchange is literally the best in the nation when it comes to buying precious metals from clients who need to sell. We’ll explain why that is in just a moment. First, however, it’s important to explain why we don’t promote it, despite having several competitive advantages.

We just don’t think most people should be selling metals, at least not now.

Buy, hold, sell

In fact, holding a position in physical bullion is, we believe, more important than ever. Our position on that hasn’t changed, even though the sideways action in the metals markets in recent years has sometimes been frustrating and difficult to watch.

The dollar’s future is more bleak than ever. The U.S. borrows too much, spends too much, and promises too much.

A national bankruptcy is coming and it will destroy confidence, the ephemeral foundation underpinning the Federal Reserve Note dollar.

We believe this is a truth which cannot be avoided, and no amount of price rigging or central economic planning can change it.

That said, it has always been a priority for us to make an honest and fair two-way market for our clients. We’re committed to supporting them whether they need to buy OR sell.

And there are, of course, plenty of good reasons to sell metal. Sometimes folks simply need cash for some other purpose – and gold and silver are highly liquid assets. Or maybe they simply disagree with our take on where the precious metals markets are headed.

So Money Metals has been steadily building tools to make it even easier for sellers as well.

​Continue reading the article on MMX
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