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February 13 2018

moneymetals

DOW JONES INDEX CORRECTION & CRASH LEVELS: A Chart All Investors Must See

As the Dow Jones Index continues to drop like a rock, the worst is yet to come. Today, investors once again plowed into the markets because they are following the Mainstream Financial advice of BUYING THE DIP. Unfortunately, those who bought the dip before yesterday’s 1,032 point drop and the 400+ point drop this afternoon, have thrown good money after bad.

Of course, we could see a late day rally to calm investor’s nerves…. but we could also see an increased sell-off. Either way, I could really give a rat’s arse. Why? Well, let’s just say the Dow Jones Index has a long way to fall before it gets back to FAIR VALUE. However, my fair value is likely much lower than the Mainstream analysts’ forecasts.

I wanted to publish this post today but will be putting together a Youtube video with more detail this weekend.

If you haven’t seen this video, I highly recommend that you do. When I published that video, the Dow Jones Index was trading at 26,100. Today it is already down to 23,400. However, as I stated, we have much further down to go. Here is my newest chart:

Dow jones index - feb. 9, 2018


Continue reading (source)

January 23 2018

moneymetals

Gold Market Consolidates Near Important Levels as Government Shuts Down

Inline image 1The gold market has been mired in a four-and-a-half year basing pattern. The rally that began late last year has taken prices up toward a major resistance zone. It’s make or break time!

Gold - jan. 19, 2018 (chart)

Also on the cusp of a potentially big move is the bond market.

Bonds haven’t been making headlines like the stock market, but where the bond market heads next could be crucial for stocks as well as metals (not to mention housing and lending).

The 30-year Treasury bond is forming a potential head and shoulders top. A sustained break below the major support line would confirm a new bear market in bonds. Lower bond prices would mean rising long-term interest rates – a potential precursor to rising inflation rates.

Bonds - jan. 19, 2018 (chart)

The government shutdown doesn’t do anything to inspire confidence in the creditworthiness of the U.S. Treasury.

Although no immediate threat of default exists, brinksmanship could escalate in future showdowns.

The government shutdown of 2011 caused the U.S. to suffer its first ever credit rating downgrade.

Senate Democrats pulled this latest political stunt over DACA – a controversial amnesty program for children of illegal immigrants. DACA affects very few Americans directly. It barely registers as a line item in the $4.1 trillion federal budget. Yet it caused the government to lock up and threatens to lead to a constitutional crisis down the road.

Continue reading (source)

October 27 2017

moneymetals

October 24 2017

moneymetals

Trump May Reappoint Yellen as Fed Chair after All

Candidate Donald Trump was none too kind to current Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen during his 2016 campaign. However, the President’s tone with regards to Yellen and Fed policy has been softening since his election.

Trump met one on one with Yellen and other top contenders last week and now appears quite open to the idea of reappointing her to another four-year term.

Janet yellen

Trump may reappoint UC Berkeley
Janet Yellen

Trump told CNBC in September of last year that Yellen should be “ashamed” for acting partisan. He accused the Fed of maintaining extraordinarily low interest rates at the request of former President Barack Obama and Democrats who wanted stimulus and credit for economic growth. Given an opportunity, he suggested he would find someone new as Fed Chair.

Now that has been thrown into question. Following his recent interviews with the candidates, Trump told Fox Business, “Most people are saying it’s down to two: Mr. (John) Taylor, Mr. (Jerome) Powell. I also met with Janet Yellen, who I like a lot. I really like her a lot. So, I have three people that I’m looking at, and there are a couple of others.”

Trump now favors Yellen’s low interest rate policy. He said in July of Yellen, “I’d like to see rates stay low. She’s historically been a low-interest-rate person."

Continue to the full article (source

September 12 2017

moneymetals

Trump Suggests Eliminating the Debt Ceiling – Dollar Falls

Those who paid any attention to the financial press last week saw the following narrative; President Donald Trump betrayed Republicans by cutting a deal with Democrats Nancy Pelosi and Charles Schumer. They agreed to punt on the borrowing cap until December and spend $15 billion for hurricane relief.

Americans are supposed to conclude that Trump is flip-flopping, and that Republicans aren’t responsible. Dig just a little, and you’ll find only one of those things is true.

Debt ceiling

Trump is flip-flopping, no question about that. The president campaigned on promises to honor the borrowing limit. This tweet from 2013 if what candidate Trump had to say on the matter: “I cannot believe the Republicans are extending the debt ceiling — I am a Republican & I am embarrassed!”

But any implication that Republican leaders in Congress actually oppose more borrowing is patently false. Republicans in Congress overwhelmingly supported the deal. It was passed in the House with a vote of 316 to 90. The Senate voted 80 to 17.

Some who voted in opposition likely only did so for the sake of appearances. Others thought the president and Democrats did not go far enough. GOP leaders Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell wanted a deal to suspend the borrowing cap for much longer than the 3 months they got.

Make no mistake – lots of Republicans share the commitment to unlimited borrowing with the President and Democrats.

At least the currency markets seem to have gotten it right. Last week’s decline in the dollar may be a recognition the debt ceiling – the final pretense of borrowing restraint – will soon be going away. The sooner investors at large arrive at this conclusion, the better it will likely be for owners of hard assets.

Article Source: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2017/09/11/trump-eliminate-debt-ceiling-001154

August 07 2017

moneymetals

Sen. Hatch: Those Opposing More Debt ‘Don’t Deserve to Be Here’

Republican leaders in Congress, with the urging of Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, are anxious to raise the federal borrowing limit from $19.8 trillion – no strings attached.

The only hitch is those pesky conservative voters who were promised restraint by party leaders. GOP establishment hopes to quietly pass a “clean” bill to raise the debt ceiling – a direct betrayal of that voter base – don't currently enjoy enough support from other Republican members who still consider themselves accountable. So a deal with the Democrats beckons.

Republicans technically have the power to finally honor the limit on borrowing by reducing spending. After all, Republicans control both Congress and the White House.

Sen. orrin hatch (r-ut)

Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) says any
politician who opposes more debt
“doesn’t deserve to be here.”

The last thing most Republican voters want is for McConnell and Ryan to start cutting deals with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer for a debt ceiling hike and MORE spending. But that may be exactly how this batch of sausage gets made. Watch for a coalition of big government Republicans and Democrats to leave future generations holding the bag – yet again.

GOP Senator Orrin Hatch is scornful of anyone in his party trying to impose spending restraint. He had this to say: “Some conservatives think they can get some programs cut. Well, that’s not gonna happen… We have to pay our bills and anybody who doesn’t want to do that doesn’t deserve to be here.

Hatch and his friends in leadership – on both sides of the aisle – share a bizarre philosophy when it comes fiscal responsibility. They insist that the best way to meet obligations is to embrace perpetual deficit spending and simply borrow without limit to cover it.

As far as they’re concerned, any elected officials with an opposing view don’t even belong in Washington DC.

Continue reading..

moneymetals

Insider's Take on the Political Situation from former Ron Paul Aide

Well now, without further delay, let's get right to this week's exclusive interview.

Paul-Martin foss

Mike Gleason:It is my privilege now to welcome in Paul-Martin Foss, founder and president of The Carl Menger Center for the Study of Money and Banking, an organization whose mission is to educate the American people on the importance of sound monetary policy. Prior to starting The Carl Menger Center, Paul-Martin worked on Capitol Hill for seven years, including a six year stint with none other than Congressman Ron Paul. As Paul's legislative assistant, he worked closely with Dr. Paul on his Audit the Fed and End the Fed bills.

Paul-Martin has a Master's degree from both the London School of Economics and Georgetown University, and has dedicated much of his professional life to the cause of sound money and the values of Austrian economics. So it's a real pleasure to have him on with us today. Paul-Martin, thanks so much for joining us and welcome.

Paul-Martin Foss: Well, thank you very much for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, I guess we'll start at the beginning here, and I'll ask you to explain why you've made it a goal and a mission to spread the ideals of sound money and sound banking. So first off, what does sound money and sound banking mean, and why should the average American citizen even concern themselves with these causes in the first place?

Paul-Martin Foss: Sound money basically is money that the government cannot debase and devalue. It's money that allows civilization and commerce to flourish. It protects savers. It protects consumers. It allows individuals to save and invest and plan for the future. What we're seeing is for the past century since the Federal Reserve was created is basically unsound money. It's money that is constantly being devalued. It favors debtors, especially the biggest debtor of all, the Federal government. It's silently taking money out of the pockets of savers and the average individual and putting that money in the pockets of Wall Street. The average American person doesn't really understand or see... who was it, I think Keynes quotes Lenin as saying that “the surest way to debase a civilization is to debase its currency.” This is basically what's happening in our country today, so I'm trying to make it an important issue and make people realize just how important sound money and sound banking is in the United States.

Mike Gleason: Furthering the point here, you wrote a great article about how the government essentially funds itself through three methods, taxation, borrowing, and inflation, and you explained how sound money is essential to keeping spending in check. Talk more about that, and then also explain more about the role that gold and silver can serve to rein in government spending.

Paul-Martin Foss: Yeah, it's like you said, you have taxation, you have borrowing, and you have inflation. Those are the three methods that the government can use to fund itself. Taxation is kind of self-limiting because once you get the tax rates high enough, people are going to stop paying taxes and the government's not going to take in as much money. Borrowing, eventually people… if you are spendthrift and not paying back your debts, they're going to stop lending you money or they're going to lend you money at higher interest rates, so there's kind of a self-limiting factor there too.

So inflation ends up being their preferred method of funding themselves, again because it's very subtle. The Fed says 2% inflation rate every year, that's their definition of stable prices. Well, that's devaluing government debt by 2% every year. Over the course of a decade, you devalue your debt by 25%, and you can pay back your debts in devalued dollars, so it's a win-win for the government all around, basically spending a lot more money than it actually has.

Gold and silver have always been great checks against the government because there's just a limited supply of it, and the government doesn't have a monopoly on the possession of gold and silver, the use of gold and silver. It can't print gold and silver. It's an item. If it wants to issue bank notes and spend money that way, it's limited by the amount of gold and silver that is physically in its possession. So it's always been a great check on government spending, and that's why governments around the world for the past 100 years have done everything they can to demonetize gold and silver, keep people from being able to use because they don't want gold and silver to be money because it limits their power.

July 24 2017

moneymetals

July 13 2017

moneymetals

Commodity Cycle Upturn to Lift Precious Metals Prices

Safe-haven demand for physical precious metals came in soft through the first half of the year as a rising stock market reinforced investor optimism toward the economy.

U.S. stocks are expensive by just about every valuation measure you can think of – price/earnings, price/sales, dividend yield, total market capitalization as a percentage of GDP, etc. Even Fed chair Janet Yellen remarked recently that equity valuations appeared “rich.”

The inverse of the extreme overvaluation in equities is the extreme relative cheapness of hard assets. Commodity indexes entered the summer at generational lows in real terms.

Equities expensive, commodities cheap? chart

The perception has been that the world is awash in plentiful, cheap oil. Just a few years ago, with oil over $100 per barrel, the headlines blared warnings about peak oil and supply shortages. At major cyclical turning points in commodity markets, the news tends to reinforce whatever trends brought about major highs or lows in prices.

What investors need to keep in mind is that commodity markets are always cyclical in nature. No matter how bullish or bearish the outlook happens to appear at any given time, prices will eventually turn and trend in the opposite direction.

Oil and agricultural commodities perked up as summer officially began. Whether it’s the start of a major cyclical bull market remains to be seen. But the supply and demand fundamentals are setting up bullishly for commodities markets.

July 05 2017

moneymetals

6 Things Precious Metals Naysayers Get Dead Wrong

Answering the Most Common and Current Objections

Gold attracts its fair share of detractors. But the most common objections to gold as money, and as a safe-haven asset within an investment portfolio, are misplaced. Anti-gold myths are ubiquitous.

Mega billionaire Warren Buffett remarked derisively of gold that it “gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility.”

That brings us to the first thing precious metals naysayers get wrong…

Myth #1: “Gold has no utility.”

Warren Buffett is without question one of the world’s greatest investors. But he is not without biases.

Buffett’s primary business interests are in banking and insurance.

Facts vs myths

He has literally made fortunes off the fiat monetary regime. He took part in (and benefited from) the government bailouts of the financial system. He (along with most other Wall Street and banking titans) supported Hillary Clinton for president.

So maybe, just maybe, Buffett’s hostility to gold has something to do with his deep, symbiotic connections to the political, banking, and monetary establishments!

In any event, the claim that gold has no utility is false. It's been chosen by the market as money because of its many useful features, including fungibility, divisibility, durability, and rarity. Gold also functions as a store of value precisely because it, unlike Federal Reserve notes, has uses beyond that of a currency.

Even if gold weren’t hoarded in vaults, people would still dig it out of the ground at great cost for its uses in electronics, jewelry, art, and architecture. In an economic sense, $50,000 in physical gold is just as useful as a $50,000 sports car – as determined by the market.

moneymetals

Fed Officials Say More Hikes on Are The Way, Markets Disagree

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says she is planning more hikes in the Fed funds rate, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the markets. So far the response in foreign exchange, bonds, and equities isn’t what people expected.

Markets have always been notorious for behaving unpredictably.

July 03 2017

moneymetals

U.S. Gold Exports Surge As Its Gold Trade Deficit Continues

It’s no secret that the East (Asians and Indians) continue to acquire a lot of gold as Western demand has weakened this year. According to the most recent data released by the USGS – United States Geological Survey, U.S. gold exports surged during the first four months of the 2017 versus the same period last year.

How much? A great deal. In the first four months of 2017, the U.S. exported a stunning 173 metric tons of gold (5.5 million oz) compared to 119 metric tons (3.8 million oz) during the same period last year.Thus, U.S. gold exports Jan-Apr 2017 surged 45% versus last year:

U.S. gold exports jan-apr 2016 vs. 2017

June 28 2017

moneymetals

WHEN THIS MASSIVE BUBBLE POPS... What Will Happen To The Precious Metals?

As the Mainstream financial media continues to promote the biggest market bubble in history, only a small fraction of investors are prepared for the disaster when it finally POPS. The markets are so insane today, it seems as if fundamentals don’t matter any more. However, they actually do if we look at the numbers closely.

In order to invest in the correct assets going forward, one must choose between those with a low RISK and high REWARD versus assets with a high RISK and low REWARD. While this may seem like common sense, I can assure you, the market makes no sense whatsoever today. And most investors are doing quite the opposite. Go figure.

If we look at the following charts in this article, we can clearly see which of the following assets, the DOW JONES, GOLD or SILVER, enjoy the lowest risk and highest reward.

Dow jones industrial average indx 6/23/17

June 16 2017

moneymetals

June 12 2017

moneymetals

THE GREAT GOLD SUPPLY DISCONNECT: Market Severely Undervalues Price

The market has no clue that it has severely undervalued the price of gold. While Central bank intervention has worked hard at capping the gold price, the “Great Gold Supply Disconnect” will most certainly remedy that situation. This gold supply disconnect took place after the gold price peaked in 2011.

That being said, the world is speeding recklessly towards an epic market catastrophe. No, this isn’t hype... I wish it was. But, unfortunately, the poor folks who continue to believe their STOCK, BOND & REAL ESTATE portfolios will provide them with a healthy retirement in the future, have no idea that their true values evaporated many years ago. However, the market just hasn’t BAKED THEM INTO THE CAKE YET... LOL.

Before we get to the Gold Supply Disconnect, let’s look at this wonderful chart that shows the carnage taking place in the commodity market. This is “Commodity Index” divided by the S&P 500 Index:

GSCI/S&P500 ratio: equities expensive, commodities cheap?

Read the entire article here.

June 08 2017

moneymetals

How Would Markets React If Trump Is Actually Forced Out of Office?

Donald Trump’s policy agenda – and his very presidency – are in jeopardy...

...at least if you believe the chatter on cable television.

Yes, for weeks now, the big media outlets have been stirring up talk of impeachment. One narrative after another – Russia, Comey, Kushner, etc. – yet no conclusive evidence of any “high crimes and misdemeanors.”

Looking at impeachment

Still, Democrats in Congress smell blood in the water… and they have readied articles of impeachment for introduction as soon as an opportunity presents.

But investors don’t seem particularly concerned about the implications of political turmoil intensifying in Washington.

The stock market keeps edging higher with minimal volatility.

The only hint of politically driven jitters all year came on May 17th. The Dow Jones Industrials slid by nearly 400 points as reports surfaced that former FBI Director James Comey was asked by President Trump to stop his investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn.

A few days later, the Dow rallied back up to its previous highs. The traditional safe-haven of gold is up modestly on the year but has yet to see any major sort of panic buying. Perhaps investors don’t believe the Trump presidency is at risk – or perhaps they don’t think it matters much if Trump gets pushed out of office.

Read the entire article here.

June 05 2017

moneymetals

Government Insolvency Gets Harder to Ignore

Several U.S. states and the federal government are hopelessly insolvent. It’s something many bullion investors have known for years.

The real question is when this reality will pierce the mainstream illusion that deficits, and the crushing pile of debt which accompany them, don’t matter. That moment drew closer last week when ratings agencies downgraded Illinois state bonds to one notch above “junk” status.

Insolvency

S&P and Moody’s dropped the state’s creditworthiness rating to BB+/Baa3 – the lowest ever for a U.S. state. Illinois currently has $14.5 billion in unpaid bills and a government deadlocked over forming a new budget.

That stack of bills represents a whopping 40% of the state’s operating budget. At the heart of Illinois’ problems are massive union pension obligations for retired government bureaucrats.

Sluggish economic growth, below par returns driven by zero interest rates, and the extravagant promises made to retirees created a funding gap that likely cannot be bridged. But the state looks like it will have to die trying.

Government union bosses and their supporters got pension obligations converted into a constitutional mandate in 1970. They made it so that certain benefits can only be adjusted in one direction – higher. Article XIII, Section 5 reads:

Continue reading the article here.

May 31 2017

moneymetals

Michael Pento Warns of Exploding Debt, Inverted Yield Curve, and Then “Economic Armageddon”

It's always a real pleasure to have him join us. Michael, how are you today? Welcome back.

Michael Pento: I'm doing fine, Mike. Thanks for having me back.

Mike Gleason: When we had you on last you commented that you believed the market was pricing in President Trump getting virtually all of his policy agenda pushed through Congress, the tax cuts, repealing Obamacare, and so forth. To say Trump has encountered some resistance in Washington would be a major understatement. The establishment of the right doesn't seem to like him. The left and the mainstream media of course hate him. So, Michael before we get into the effects this will have on the markets here, first off, handicap for us the chances of Trump, based on what's been transpiring in recent weeks, miraculously gaining enough allies in Congress in order to get his initiatives passed.

Michael Pento: I did say that the market was pricing in the imminent effect of a massive tax cut — and I meant tax cut, not a tax reform package. In other words, cutting the rate from 30% to 15% or even 20%, but certainly not offset by any spending cuts or an elimination of deductions. The market is still pricing in a lot of that hope and hype, in my opinion. But I had said and warned from the beginning, this was back right after the election, I did say that the Trump "stimulus" package — and I'll put "stimulus" in quotes and I'll explain why in a second — I said that the Trump "stimulus" plan would be both diluted and delayed. 

It looks like that's exactly what's going to happen and is happening. I would be very, very shocked if we see anything before the August recess in the realm of healthcare, certainly in the tax reform package. It is my best guess that in early 2018 Trump will ram through a very adulterated and attenuated package that will be mostly a minor reduction in the rates, which is for the most part offset by some type of a reduction or elimination in write-offs. 

In other words, the market is extremely, extremely overvalued, and – and we'll get to this later – the only thing left holding this market together on top of a massive bubble is the perpetual QE from Europe and Japan. I do not expect the QE from Japan to end any time soon, although I do expect later this year at least some salvos from the BOJ, that that's something that they might be able to do in the future. I do expect QE to end in 2017 in Europe.

You can find the entire podcast here.
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