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November 02 2018

moneymetals

Chris Martenson Warns: Markets Are Making Faulty Assumptions about Growth & Resources

Chris martenson

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Dr. Chris Martenson of PeakProsperity.com, and author of the book Prosper! How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting. Chris is a commentator on a range of important topics such as global economics, financial markets, governmental policy, precious metals and the importance of preparedness among other things. And it's always great to have him with us.

Chris, it's been too long, but welcome back and thanks for joining us again.

Chris Martenson: Hey Mike. Thank you so much. It's great to be back with you.

Mike Gleason: Well Chris, we continue to follow your work closely, and your Crash Course video remains in our opinion, a must watch for people who are concerned about the road we are all on. You have summarized the problems we face as “expecting infinite growth in an infinite world.” No amount of money printing and Wall Street wizardry can change the fact that resources and energy in particular are limited. Unfortunately people are not always ready to listen, lots of folks tuned in following the 2008 financial crisis, but years have passed, and many Americans have forgotten about those darker times. Home prices and stock prices have been rising and few people are worried, at least with regards to the markets.

It isn't fashionable to be preaching caution, but the need for it is, we think, greater than ever. What are you saying to people who might think 2008 was just another bump in the road and now is not the time to be bearish, Chris?

Chris Martenson: Well, they have a point. They've got 10 years under their belt of the most expansive monetary policy ever, and I got dinged because I saw a lot of bearishness in 2011, and called it at the time, and of course, things just bottomed a little bit and then went up. Same thing in 2016, beautiful head and shoulders top, there was emerging market trouble everywhere, bonds were exploding overseas, and the dollar was spiking, as carry trades unwound, called that too, said, "Uh oh, this looks bad" and then was 50-degree rocket ride of monthly gains on U.S. equities after that.

Well, now we have the data, Mike. We look back, we say, "Oh, the central banks just printed more, then even more, and then even more." Most people mistakenly think the crisis was in 2008, they did a few extraordinary things on the fiscal side, they had TARP on the monetary side, there was all this quantitative easing, and then that's in the rear view.

But the truth is, the largest ever amount of printing happened in 2015, '16, and '17. Those in '16 and '17 in particular. Those were the years. If you want to understand why things denominated in freshly printed money go up in price, you don't need a PhD in economics. It's just how it works. And the central banks printed like crazy, tens of trillions, shoved it into the markets and guess what happened? Exactly what we predicted in the Crash Course in 2008.​...

Continue reading: https://goo.gl/47gwK4​

October 24 2017

moneymetals

Trump May Reappoint Yellen as Fed Chair after All

Candidate Donald Trump was none too kind to current Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen during his 2016 campaign. However, the President’s tone with regards to Yellen and Fed policy has been softening since his election.

Trump met one on one with Yellen and other top contenders last week and now appears quite open to the idea of reappointing her to another four-year term.

Janet yellen

Trump may reappoint UC Berkeley
Janet Yellen

Trump told CNBC in September of last year that Yellen should be “ashamed” for acting partisan. He accused the Fed of maintaining extraordinarily low interest rates at the request of former President Barack Obama and Democrats who wanted stimulus and credit for economic growth. Given an opportunity, he suggested he would find someone new as Fed Chair.

Now that has been thrown into question. Following his recent interviews with the candidates, Trump told Fox Business, “Most people are saying it’s down to two: Mr. (John) Taylor, Mr. (Jerome) Powell. I also met with Janet Yellen, who I like a lot. I really like her a lot. So, I have three people that I’m looking at, and there are a couple of others.”

Trump now favors Yellen’s low interest rate policy. He said in July of Yellen, “I’d like to see rates stay low. She’s historically been a low-interest-rate person."

Continue to the full article (source

October 20 2017

moneymetals

Gold/Silver vs. Bitcoin Comparisons: A No-Brainer... or Brainless?

For most of the year, as Bitcoin soared, crashed, and soared again, cryptocurrency vs. physical gold-silver talking heads engaged each other in heated rhetoric about which of these venues is here to stay.

Some of the biggest names in finance, government, and the newsletter analyst space have made comments that – to be charitable – appear less-than-fully informed. Comments like "Even though bitcoin could rise to $100,000, it's still going to zero!" don't offer much insight. Some other questionable assumptions:

2017 percent price change comparisons: Relating this year's gold and silver's price range to that of bitcoin misses an important point. Yes, bitcoin (BTC) has risen by a much greater percent, but it's also fallen more. I don't recall gold dropping 40% this year, which bitcoin has... on a couple of occasions.

Bitcoins

Please note: Bitcoin has no tangible, physical form.

Trash-talking gold and silver as "antiquated": Bitcoin is now considered legal tender in Japan, but at this time, its primary function is for use in the purchase and sale of the 900+ "alt coins" currently available.

Most of these exchange entries in the crypto-space are not really "currencies" at all and will never trade as such.

Rather they are "coins" or "tokens" digitally created and circulated to raise seed money, via initial coin offerings (ICOs) in order to solve some business application in a blockchain-connected manner. Many have no trading volume – possibly because the market is skeptical of their business plan – and have become more or less "dead" coins.

At present, a relative few have an actively trading market. Investors have dropped literally millions of dollars into scores, if not hundreds of entrants which have appeared on the scene like dragon's teeth, in many cases only to see volume dry up soon thereafter.

At present, digital apparitions can be created and marketed by just about anyone. The following example demonstrates how easy it is (for now), and how gullible some people really are...

Article Source


October 10 2017

moneymetals

October 09 2017

moneymetals

Frank Holmes Exclusive: Bitcoin Needs Electricity, Gold CONDUCTS Electricity

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Frank holmes

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer at US Globala Investors. Mr. Holmes has received various honors over the years, including being named America's Best Fund Manager for 2016 by the Mining Journal. He is also the co-author of the book The Goldwatcher: Demystifying Gold Investing and is a regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business as well as right here on the Money Metals podcast. Frank, welcome back and thanks for joining us again. How are you today?

Frank Holmes: Excellent. Thank you, my friend. Thank you.

Mike Gleason: Well, to start out here, Frank, I know you recently attended and spoke at the Denver Gold Show and I always like to talk to insiders like yourself following those sorts of events because you can always glean some good insights on the mood of the industry and how things are really going in the precious metals community. Now the mining industry has taken a pretty good beating over the last few years and it continues to struggle a bit even as we seem to be in a new bull cycle that began in late 2015. You've got your new gold fund now, GOAU, so you've got lots on insights into the mining industry and know lots of gold bugs. So, what did you glean from the conference Frank? What was the mood in general? Give us some highlights there if you would.

Frank Holmes: Well I think my presentation was well received when I explained how the quant world and data mining, and these other what they call alternative investment research companies, are providing new insight the way investing is taking place. Understanding the paradigm shift on that data collection and that analysts love their old reports on mid asset value, are irrelevant. They're not relevant to picking stocks today. And you have to go with the forces of physics either as electromagnetic rebounding to the mean is a cheap stock and math says it will rebound or has strong momentum. And you can take a universe of 88 gold stocks and take it down to 28 and far outperform the GDX or GDXJ.

Using data that was foreign to a lot of these analysts and recognizing ... the other thing I think worth commenting on was gold and this whole thing on Bitcoin, is it a competition for bullion? It is not. First of all, without electricity Bitcoin is not worth any money. It needs electricity. Gold is always gold. It conducts electricity and it will always have its materiality for currency in addition to being jewelry. But I think that's really important is to recognize that it's so much easier, this idea of crowdfunding, to go and open up an exchange and trade 24/7 all these different currencies all around the world than it is to open a brokerage account. And I think that this excessive regulations is basically seeing people migrate over to angel investing, crowdfunding such as into cryptocurrencies, et cetera. And I think that's the bigger danger is to overall investing in trading in the capital markets. So they're the comments that I made and that seem to have come back with many written messages to me regarding the quants and how they're changing the landscape.

But I think the other part that's important for your listeners is that there were 1,100 people there. Now they don't allow investment bankers in. Research analysts, traders, CEOs, gold analysts from the buy and sell side, they're allowed to participate and there were 1,100. The week before there was a big event for the juniors (junior miners) but this event is the premiere event of the world. And I was impressed with it. The conversations looking for companies that are going to be taken over. What's the probability. Because the seniors are desperate for future production and where is that growth going to come from because they're just not finding the gold as fast as they're mining. So, the Newmonts of the world have to go and strike deals like they did with Continental in Columbia to get a foothold into high grade big geographic footprints. So I thought that was interesting. I think that in the next 12 months there's going to be lots of M&A work. And the other part was the royalty companies seem to get a new sort of respect for how their positioned in the capital markets in that gold space.

Mike Gleason: Yeah definitely. Sounds like there is a wave of optimism there and some good things ahead. Now I wanted to get back to some of the cryptocurrency conversation here. Your firm, Frank, US Global Investors, recently made an investment in HIVE Blockchain Technologies and you have been appointed chairman of the board there. Given you are heavily involved in the cryptocurrency space now, we'd like to get your take on a topic of growing interest in the metals community. You alluded to this a moment ago but cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in particular, have been seen by many as another form of honest money. You've obviously maybe shot a little bit of a hole in what it is that is needed in order to continue the cryptocurrency world, that being electricity. But since you’re a fan at least in part of both metals and blockchains. What are your thoughts on how metals might fit in with this emerging technology, Frank?

Read/Listen to the full podcast interview (source)

September 28 2017

moneymetals

Stock Investors Should Brace for the Fed’s October Tightening Gambit

September’s Federal Reserve meeting left interest rates unchanged but sounded a hawkish tone. The Fed seems intent on hiking interest rates again come December.

Following Fed chair Janet Yellen’s remarks this Tuesday, interest rate futures markets bumped up the odds of a year-end rate hike to 81%.

The more immediate – and perhaps more important – policy move pending from the central bank is its plan to gradually reverse its Quantitative Easing bond buying program starting in October.

Yellen calls it “balance sheet normalization.” She is right in acknowledging that there’s nothing normal about the $4.5 trillion balance sheet the nation’s currency custodian has built up following the financial crisis of 2008.

Whether the Fed’s bond portfolio ever will get “normalized” to pre-crisis levels will depend on how markets react to the Fed’s attempt at Quantitative Tightening beginning next month.

The Fed technically won’t sell bond holdings into the market. Instead it will let bonds mature without rolling them over. The effect on the market will be as if a regular, reliable, very big customer stopped buying.

Initially, the Fed will allow $10 billion in Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to mature off its balance sheet per month. Over the next year, the pace of “normalization” will accelerate. It is slated to eventually reach $50 billion per month.

Quantitative Tightening, if it goes through as planned, will withdraw hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of liquidity from the financial system. Fed chair Yellen thinks the impact on long-term interest rates will be minor.

She has to know that the risks to the equity markets are huge. After all, her predecessor, Ben Bernanke, touted the bond buying program as an effective way to boost the stock market. Since 2009, the stock market has followed in roughly the same direction as the Fed’s balance sheet.

The latest run-up in stocks since the 2016 election has been different in character. The Fed’s balance sheet hasn’t expanded during this period. Instead, optimism toward the prospects of stimulus in the form of tax cuts has helped lift equity valuations.

Read the full article... (source)

September 19 2017

moneymetals

September 13 2017

moneymetals

The U.S. Government Massive ONE-DAY Debt Increase Impact On Interest Expense & Silver ETF

The U.S. Government’s massive one-day debt increase had a profound impact on the amount of money it will have to fork over just to service its interest payment. On Friday, Sept 9th, the U.S. Treasury increased the total debt by a stunning $318 billion. Thus, the total U.S. Government debt increased from $19.84 trillion on Thursday to $20.16 trillion on Friday.

We must remember when the U.S Treasury adds more debt to its balance sheet; the government is now obligated to pay additional funds to service the interest on that debt. So, for each increase in U.S. Government debt, comes with it, an increase in its debt service payment.

However, the U.S. Government has been able to control the rise in its annual interest payments by pushing the interest rate lower. For example, the average interest rate on U.S. Treasury debt in 2000 was 6.4% versus 2.2% currently. If we look at the chart below, we can see how the interest rate has declined as U.S. Government debt increased:

U.S. total debt vs average interest percentage rate

The RED DOLLAR bars represent total U.S. Government debt in billions of Dollars, while the WHITE LINEshows the annual average debt service interest rate. We can plainly see that total U.S. debt has nearly quadrupled from $5.6 trillion in 2000 to $20.1 trillion in 2017.

NOTE: I arrived at the average interest rate percentage figures by dividing the annual interest payments by the total outstanding debt.

This next chart from the Treasurydirect.gov website lists the annual U.S. debt service interest payments:

Available historical data fiscal year end

(interest expense on debt outstanding, Treasurydirect.gov)

By taking the interest payment of $362 billion in 2000 and dividing it by the total U.S. Government debt of $5,674 billion ($5.67 trillion), it equaled 6.4%. So, the U.S. Treasury paid an average 6.4% interest payment on its outstanding debt that year.

What is interesting about the figures in the table above is that the U.S. Treasury paid out a larger interest payment in 2008 of $451 billion versus $432 billion in 2016, even though the debt was much higher in 2016. The reason the interest payment was higher in 2008 than in 2016 had to do with a 4.5% interest rate on $10 trillion of debt compared to a 2.2% interest rate on $19.6 trillion in debt. By cutting the interest rate in half (4.5% down to 2.2%), the U.S. Treasury’s interest expense remained flat or slightly declined as the debt nearly doubled.

Continue reading... 
(ARTICLE SOURCE: https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2017/09/13/govt-debt-increase-impact-001157)

September 08 2017

moneymetals

September 05 2017

moneymetals

August 22 2017

moneymetals

TOTAL WORLD GOLD & SILVER PRODUCTION: Fact vs Conspiracy

Inline image 1

Unfortunately for precious metals investors, there continues to be a great deal of misinformation about how much gold there is in the world. The biggest culprit that confuses precious metals investors is what I call, LOUSY CONSPIRACIES. Those who promote these unsound conspiracies aren’t able to differentiate between FACTS and FICTION.

This will be a short post, but it is important as it will lay some ground work for articles to come out over the next several weeks in comparing the new Bitcoin-Crypto currency market to gold and silver.

While conspiracies do indeed take place, they are based upon sound reasoning and evidence that either proves a conspiracy has occurred, or proves the official story is bogus. On the other hand, lousy conspiracies are easy to dismiss when facts and sound evidence are brought forward. Unfortunately, even when the facts or the evidence is presented step by step, those who either promote or believe these lousy conspiracies… continue to do so.

This has to be one of the most frustrating areas of my research, writing and analysis. Why? Because, I receive emails at least once a week bringing up one of my favorite LOUSY CONSPIRACIES.

One of the more insane conspiracies in the precious metals community is the notion that the world has 1-2 million tons of gold hidden in secret vaults. Some of these vaults are the infamous Yamashita’s Gold Treasure, Nazi Gold Vault, Bank of Hawaii Massive Gold Holding and etc.

You see, conspiracies, especially LOUSY CONSPIRACIES, are a great way to make a buck selling a newsletter or book. Because people don’t take the time to do the research and fact check, it’s much easier and a great deal more fun to believe in the hype of a conspiracy. This is quite a shame because lousy conspiracies give the few sound conspiracies a bad reputation.

Even though I wrote about this back in April, CONSPIRACY vs FACT: How Much Gold Is In The World??, it seems necessary to discuss this once again as an introduction to why gold and silver will still be better quality stores of wealth versus crypto currencies over the medium to longer term. This goes against some of the recent analysis put out in the Alternative Community suggesting that gold will no longer have value in the future due to crypto currencies taking over the role as a new digital monetary system.

Anyhow… the production of silver and gold are extracted out of the ground at a certain ratio. Recently, it is approximately 9 to 1, silver to gold. Let’s take a look at the following two charts:

World gold production 1493-2016

World silver production 1493-2016

As we can see in these two charts, most of world gold and silver production has been extracted since 1900. For gold, the world produced 91% of all gold since 1900, and 81% of all global silver production.According to the best sources (shown on the bottom of the chart), there have been approximately 173,000 metric tons (5.5 billion oz) of gold produced since 1493 and 48.5 billion oz of silver. This turns out to be a 9 to 1 ratio, which is the same as the ratio of silver to gold in the ground.

Continue reading: Article Source

August 21 2017

moneymetals

August 18 2017

moneymetals

August 04 2017

moneymetals

Get Ready for an Historic Upside Gold and Silver Run

The Bigger the Base, the Greater the Upside Case. This saying among technical analysts/chartists helps define where we are today in the precious metals – and where we'll soon be headed.

July 24 2017

moneymetals

David Morgan: Gold and Silver at Breakout Point from 6-Year Downtrend

And now, back by popular demand, here’s our recent interview with a long-time friend of Money Metals Exchange and precious metals investors in general…

David morgan

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome in our good friend David Morgan of The Morgan Report. David, it's always a real pleasure to have you on with us and I'm especially excited to talk with you about some of the topics we've got on tap today. How are you?

David Morgan: I'm doing well Mike, thank you very much.

Mike Gleason: Well, as we begin here David, I want to talk to you about the danger of complacency because I think it's a very appropriate topic for the times we're in right now. To you and me and to many others in our space with a similar world view, we see a whole slew of reasons to own precious metals. We have threats of war in many places throughout the globe. We have a president here in the U.S. who the establishment hates and is hoping to oust if they get the chance. We have nation central banks printing new fiat currency at unprecedented levels all throughout the world.

An entire continent over there in Europe that appears to be potentially at risk of seeing their political and currency union falling apart, terror threats all over the place, the refugee crisis, the list goes on and on. But all the while we have this stock market continuing to make all-time highs with most people seeming to believe that everything is hunky dory while completely ignoring all of those geopolitical and monetary headwinds, or for those who seem to grasp all of that, all that's going on, maybe starting to believe that it doesn't matter. Because, after all, the feds and the central planners are going to be able to manage this thing forever.

So, talk about complacency here David, why aren't we seeing more flock to safe havens, at least not here in the Western world, and discuss the dangers that exist if we let ourselves fall into the complacency or the “nothing is ever going to change” type of mindset.

July 19 2017

moneymetals

National Debt Too High, Silver Price Too Low

Silver currently sells around $16, which would be sensible if the U.S. national debt was much less than its current $20 trillion.

Fine silver bar

Given the massive national debt and 100 years of experience, silver prices could easily be double or triple their current prices, and far higher in a panic.

WHY?

Examine over a century of official national debt data graphed on a log scale. Official debt in 1913 was $3 billion. Since then it has risen 8% to 9% every year to reach $20 trillion or $20,000 billion. Debt will continue rising as long as politicians spend and bankers lend.

Proof: Name the Senators, Representatives, Presidents, military contractors, pharmaceutical companies, and Medicare recipients who wish to see the government reduce expenses.

moneymetals

GOLD & SILVER MARKET: Four Interesting Developments

There are four interesting developments taking place in the gold and silver market that precious metals investors should be aware of. While Americans continue to place all the BETS in the CASINO called Wall Street, via stocks, bonds and real estate, the EAST has been acquiring record amounts of gold and silver. Furthermore, something interesting seems to have changed recently in the Silver Eagle sales market.

FIRST DEVELOPMENT: Let’s start off with showing the stunning amount of silver India imported in May. According to Smaulgld.com, India imported nearly 2,000% more silver in May 2017 vs May 2016:

Indian silver imports may 2016 - may 2017

Matter-a-fact, India imported nearly the same amount of silver in May, than they received from January-April. Also, we can see that May’s 1,473 metric tons of silver imports is 2-4 times more than any of the prior months. Something has inspired the Indians to import that much silver this past May.

SECOND DEVELOPMENT: India also imported a record amount of gold in May:

Monthly indian gold imports july 2014 - may 2017

According to Smaulgld’s article, INDIAN GOLD IMPORTS ON RECORD PACE IN 2017:

Continue reading...

July 11 2017

moneymetals

Answering Your Questions on Bitcoin, Lower Silver Premiums, and Pre-1933 Gold Coins

Questions and answers

One of the core tenets of our business is educating people who have never owned physical gold or silver. We introduce them to the metals markets and put the spotlight on dishonest money as the foundation for unrestrained government. We get lots of great questions and we like to publish our responses to the most common of them.

Reader Question: What is your take on Bitcoin?

Answer: We believe in honest money. Although flawed, Bitcoin represents a remarkable innovation on that front. That is why Money Metals was among the first bullion dealers to accept Bitcoin payments for precious metals.

If decentralized cryptocurrency proves to be beyond the ability of central bankers and bureaucrats to manipulate or control, it will be a meaningful step forward for personal liberty and a blow to corrupt governments, banks, and markets. It has that potential in common with gold, which imposed restraint on Wall Street and Washington DC right up until Richard Nixon slammed the gold window shut and removed the last bit of integrity from the fiat U.S. dollar.

While Bitcoin and bullion share the potential to work as alternative money, they are not substitutes for one another. The differences are quite important to consider.

The first distinction is that gold and silver rounds, coins, and bars are tangible assets that will never become worthless. Precious metals are beautiful and serve a useful purpose in goods ranging from jewelry to electronics. They have thousands of years of history serving as money and as a reliable store of value.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a very recent phenomenon and a purely digital asset. It may ultimately change the world, but it hasn’t yet stood the test of time. Bitcoin itself must still clear some hurdles.

We accept bitcoin

It needs to become far easier to acquire, safeguard, and use. There are many alternative cryptocurrencies and there is no guarantee Bitcoin will prove itself to be the best mousetrap and survive.

Some technological problems still need to be solved in order for Bitcoin to scale and serve as a replacement for existing monetary systems. It will need to weather regulatory attacks by bankers and bureaucrats seeking to protect their fiat monetary systems.

While Bitcoin itself has not yet been hacked, several exchanges holding bitcoin have been.

Lastly, it is important to note that physical bullion is truly “off the grid,” while Bitcoin depends upon the network. Metals don’t need electricity and an internet connection to work. The exact whereabouts of a gold coin cannot be tracked electronically and it will leave no digital fingerprints when used in a discreet transaction. This cannot be said for Bitcoin.

You can find the rest of the Q&A here.


July 10 2017

moneymetals

The Reason Why Gold & Silver Have Frustrated Investors Since 2011

The biggest frustration to many precious metals investors, is why have the gold and silver prices under-performed the market since 2011? Actually, for gold it was since 2012. Even though gold hit a new record high of $1,900 in September 2011, its average annual price was higher in 2012 at $1,669 compared to $1,571 the prior year.

Regardless, the precious metals analysts back in 2012 were forecasting the market was going to experience even higher gold and silver prices, especially after the Fed announced QE 3 at the end of 2012. However, the precious metals community was taken by surprise as the gold and silver prices were hammered at the end of 2012 and into the beginning of 2013:

Gold continuous contract - july 3 2017

During this period, the gold price fell 30% and the silver price declined nearly 50%. Did something fundamental change in the markets for investors to suddenly ditch precious metals? Actually, something really big happened... THE MARKETS BROKE. Of course, many in the alternative media believe the financial market died in 2008, but when we look at another indicator... it clearly shows that the markets drastically changed even further in 2012.

The following charts (below) from the article, Deutsche: The Market Broke In 2012, “This Is What Everyone Is Talking About”, show that the market is totally under-pricing RISK by orders of magnitude never seen before. Now, when I say “under-pricing risk”, all that means is that the market has no idea of the dangers ahead. It is similar to someone driving a car that doesn’t realize the engine is burning up and the brakes don’t work because the WARNING LIGHTS aren’t functioning. So, the poor slob continues to speed down the road, without out a care in the world… until the car blows up or he heads over a cliff.

In the Deutsche Bank article linked above, analyst Aleksandar Kocic providing actual evidence that the WARNING LIGHTS in the market are no longer working:

Continue reading the entire article here.

July 05 2017

moneymetals

Fed Officials Say More Hikes on Are The Way, Markets Disagree

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen says she is planning more hikes in the Fed funds rate, but you wouldn’t know it by watching the markets. So far the response in foreign exchange, bonds, and equities isn’t what people expected.

Markets have always been notorious for behaving unpredictably.

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