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April 17 2018

moneymetals

Global Silver Scrap Supply Falls To 26-Year Low

Global silver scrap supply fell to its lowest level in 26 years. World silver recycling in 2017 dropped by nearly 50% since its peak in 2011. According to the 2018 World Silver Survey, global silver scrap supply declined to 138 million oz (Moz) compared to 261 Moz in 2011. While the lower silver price is partly responsible for the large drop in silver recycling, there are other market dynamics.

For example, silver recycling from the photography sector has declined since consumption peaked in 1999. The photography industry was using 228 Moz of silver in 1999 compared to the 44 Moz last year. Thus, silver consumption in photography has declined by 80% in nearly two decades… and along with it, a great deal of recycled silver supply.

Furthermore, a lot of silverware was recycled during the period of rising prices (2007-2012). A lot of Millennials who inherited their parent’s (and grandparents) silverware decided it was much easier to pawn it rather than spending a lot of time polishing it for holiday gatherings. Which means, a lot of available stocks of silver scrap have already been recycled.

Global silver scrap supply (1990-2017)

As we can see in the chart above, even though the $17 silver price in 2017 was four times higher than in 1991 ($3.91), global silver scrap supply is less than it was 26 years ago. Moreover, world silver scrap was over 200 Moz a year (2005-2009) when the average annual price was much less than it was last year.



Continue reading (source

April 11 2018

moneymetals

FRAGILE NATURE OF CURRENCIES: Why Gold & Silver Are High-Quality Stores Of Value

As the U.S. and global economy speed towards the Seneca Cliff, very few individuals understand the fragile nature of currencies. Today, we use the lightning speed of the digital banking system to make our purchases at the store or online. It has become seemingly natural to buy groceries at the swipe of a card. Only a small percentage of purchases are made with cash… paper money.

However, our high-tech digital banking system is built upon a highly complex system that consumes a massive amount of energy just to maintain business as usual. There’s this notion that technology will grow exponentially while at the same time making our lives easier. TV commercials are showing how individuals today have more power at their fingertips than entire generations in the past. While this is currently true, I can assure you; we are not heading into a high-tech world where robots do everything for us.

Unfortunately, due to the rapidly Falling EROI – Energy Returned On Investment and the thermodynamics of resource depletion, we are heading into a future with much less technology and a great deal more human labor. I know, it sounds insane to say that, but it’s true. Human labor and human farming have a much higher EROI than any technology used today.

Continue to the full article (source

April 09 2018

moneymetals

Silver May Be Getting Ready to Shine Again

The setup for higher silver prices is so good it’s scary. The relative positioning of speculators versus the bullion banks in the futures markets is extraordinarily lopsided.

A bet on silver moving higher from here looks a lot like a no-brainer. So much so that David Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report and silver guru is advising just a bit of caution, as he told listeners in an exclusive interview on this past Friday’s Money Metals Weekly Market Wrap Podcast.

The bullion banks (Commercials) are almost certainly now betting for higher silver prices and have relinquished their concentrated short position.

Meanwhile, the large speculators are positioned increasingly short. The good news for silver bulls is the bullion banks dominate the futures markets, by hook or by crook, and they generally win versus the speculators.

In the chart below from Zachary Storella (Investing.com), the red line represents the “Commercials” which are the bullion banks and miners. It shows their collective position virtually even, or neutral. It is the first time this has happened since the Commodity Futures Trading Commission began publishing the more detailed Commitments of Traders report in 2009.

Silver: cot futures large trader positions chart

One could argue that if the commercials are neutral, that isn’t exactly the same as the bullion banks being positioned long

​.


Continue to the full article: (source) ​

moneymetals

Two Mines Supply Half Of U.S. Silver Production & The Real Cost To Produce Silver

​Just two mines supply the United States with half of its silver production, and both are located in Alaska. It’s quite amazing that Alaska now produces half of the silver for the U.S. when only 30 years ago total mine supply from the state was less than 50,000 oz per year. The silver produced in Alaska comes from the Greens Creek and Red Dog Mines. One is a primary silver mine and the other a zinc-lead base metal mine.

Even though Hecla’s Greens Creek Mine is labeled as a primary silver mine, 56% of its revenues come from its gold, zinc, and lead metal sales. However, Teck Resources, that runs the Red Dog Mine doesn’t even list its silver production in its financial reports. Because Red Dog produces one heck of a lot of zinc and lead, their silver production doesn’t amount to much in the way of revenues.

For example, the Red Dog Mine produced 542,000 metric tons (1.1 billion pounds) of zinc and 110,000 metric tons (222 million pounds) of lead, while its estimated silver production was 6.6 million oz (Moz). According to Teck’s 2017 Annual Report, total revenues from the Red Dog Mine were $1.75 billion. With the estimated silver price of $17 in 2017, total revenues from 6.6 Moz of silver were $112 million, or just 6% of the total.

In addition, Hecla’s Greens Creek Mine in Alaska produced 8.4 Moz of silver this year, down from 9.2 Moz in 2016. As I mentioned, the Greens Creek Mine also generated a lot of gold, zinc, and lead, equaling $182 million of the total revenues of $326 million (including treatment costs).

The USGS just came out with their final Silver Mineral Industry Survey for 2017, reporting that the U.S. produced 33 million oz (Moz), down from 37 Moz the previous year. U.S. silver production declined due to the union strike and the shut down of Hecla’s Lucky Friday Mine. As we can see, Greens Creek and Red Dog accounted for 15 Moz of the total 33 Moz of U.S. silver production:

Top 2 silver producers vs. u.s. total 2017

While Greens Creek and Red Dog supplied nearly half of U.S. silver production last year, the next two largest mines provided 21% of the total. Coeur’s Rochester Mine in Nevada produced 4.7 Moz of silver while the Bingham Canyon Mine, the country’s largest copper mine, supplied 2.2 Moz. Almost 7 Moz of silver came from these two mines alone.

​Continue to the full article (source) ​

April 06 2018

moneymetals

CHILE, WORLD’S FOURTH LARGEST SILVER PRODUCER: Mine Supply Down 20%

Silver mine supply from the world’s fourth-largest silver producer fell significantly at the beginning of 2018. According to Chile’s Ministry of Mines, domestic silver production in January declined 20% versus the same month last year. Chile’s silver production has been falling considerably since its recent peak in 2014.

In just three years, Chile’s domestic silver mine supply fell 10 million oz (Moz) from 50.1 Moz in 2014 to 40.4 Moz last year. Interestingly, Chile’s silver production is down 20% since 2014 while the country’s copper mine supply is only down 5%. Because most of Chile’s silver supply comes as a by-product of copper mining, it’s surprising to see such a significant decline in their silver production.

If we look at three of the top four silver producers in the world, Mexico’s silver mine supply in January increased 7% while Peru declined 6%:

World top silver producers jan 2018

According to the official data, Mexico’ silver production increased 29 metric tons (mt), Peru fell 20 mt and Chile dropped by nearly 21 mt. Thus, overall silver mine supply from these top three producers fell 13 mt in January versus the same month last year. Even though Mexico will likely experience an increase in silver mine supply in 2018, declining production from other leading countries may curtail overall world supply.

​Continue reading (source) ​

April 05 2018

moneymetals

MARKET MELTDOWN CONTINUES: Gold & Silver Prices Begin To Disconnect

As the BLOOD continues to run on Wall Street, gold and silver were the few assets trading in the green today. As I have mentioned in past articles and interviews, investors need to get used to this sort of trading activity. Even though the Dow Jones Index ended off its lows of the day, it shed another 458 points while the Nasdaq declined 190 points and the S&P fell 60.

As the broader markets sold off, the gold price increased $15 while silver jumped by $0.25. However, if we look at these markets during their peak of trading, the contrast is even more remarkable:

Peak market trading april 2nd 2018

At the lows of the day, the Dow Jones Index fell 730 points or 3%, while the S&P 500 fell 3.2% and the Nasdaq declined by 3.8%. Also, as I expected, the oil price fell along with the broader markets by dropping 2.7%. If individuals believe the oil price will continue towards $100, due to supply and demand fundamentals put forth by some energy analysts, you may want to consider one of the largest Commercial Net Short positions in history. Currently, the Commercial Net Short position is 738,000 contacts. When the oil price was trading at a low of $30 at the beginning of 2016, the Commercial Net Short position was only 180,000 contracts.

Furthermore, if we agree that supply and demand forces are impacting the oil price to a certain degree, does anyone truly believe oil demand won’t fall when the stock market drops by 50+%??? I forecast that as market meltdown continues, the oil price will decline as oil demand falls faster than supply.


​Continue reading (source)​

April 04 2018

moneymetals

China Moves to Neuter King Dollar in International Trade

Last Monday, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched the first futures contract for crude oil priced in Chinese yuan. It’s a major step forward in the process of international de-dollarization. Now Chinese and other international traders can buy and sell the world’s most important commodity in a liquid market without using U.S. dollars.

The “petro dollar” now faces the prospect of being rendered unnecessary as China – the world’s biggest oil importer – attempts to establish a “petro yuan.”

China is launching a pilot program to purchase oil from Russia and Angola (two of its top suppliers) using yuan. Russia and China share a common interest in trying to break the dollar's dominance in global commodity trading.

The two powers have been among the world’s top gold accumulators in recent years, with some reports suggesting Russia is now also loading up on silver for the possible launch of a silver ruble. Russia and other emerging commodity supplier markets stand to be among the big beneficiaries of a weaker dollar, as does China.



Continue reading (source

March 15 2018

moneymetals

BOOM: Wyoming Ends ALL TAXATION of Gold & Silver

Breakthrough Sound Money Bill Becomes Law Today with Wide Support


Cheyenne, Wyoming (March 14, 2018) – Sound money activists rejoiced as the Wyoming Legal Tender Act became law today. The bill restores constitutional, sound money in Wyoming.

Backed by the Sound Money Defense League, Campaign for Liberty, Money Metals Exchange, and in-state grassroots activists, HB 103 removes all forms of state taxation on gold and silver coins and bullion and reaffirms their status as money in Wyoming, in keeping with Article 1, Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution.

Introduced by Representative Roy Edwards (R-Gillette), HB 103 received a 55-5 favorable vote on final passage in the Wyoming House last week following Senate approval by a vote of 25-5. Gov. Matt Mead let HB 103 become law today without his signature.

The most immediate impact of the new law, which formally takes effect on July 1, is to eliminate all Wyoming sales taxes when purchasing gold or silver.

While Wyoming does not currently have an income tax, the bill stipulates “the purchase, sale or exchange of any type or form of specie or specie legal tender shall not give rise to any tax liability of any kind.” That means no income tax, property tax, sales tax or any other Wyoming tax can be assessed against the monetary metals.

Lead sponsor Roy Edwards said, “Imagine going to the grocery store and asking the clerk for change for a $20 bill and being charged $1.00 in tax. That’s what we’re doing in Wyoming by charging sales taxes on precious metals and we’re taking steps to change that.”

With the adoption of HB 103, Wyoming joins all its bordering states (South Dakota, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska) and more than 30 other states that do not assess a sales tax against precious metals.

Some states have specifically eliminated income taxation on gold and silver (Arizona and Utah) or have established precious metals depositories to store the state’s own physical gold and help citizens save and transact in gold and silver bullion (Texas).

You can view the full press release here (source

March 06 2018

moneymetals

SILVER INVESTMENT: The Lowest Risk, Highest Return Potential vs. Stocks & Real Estate

While silver is completely off the radar to most investors, it will turn out to be one of the best investments to own as the massive amount of leverage in the stock and real estate market evaporates. Unfortunately, investors, today are no longer capable of recognizing when an asset displays a HIGH or LOW risk. Thus, fundamental indicators are ignored as the investors continue the insane strategy of “Buying the Dip.”

A prudent investor is able to spot when an asset becomes a high risk and then has the sense to move his or her funds into one that is a lower risk. However, the majority of investors do not follow this practice as they are caught by surprise when a Market Crash occurs… again and again and again. Even worse, when investors are shown that the indicators are pointing to assets that are extremely risky, then ignore it and continue business as usual.

Today, complacency has turned investors’ brains into mush. They are no longer able to discern RIGHT from WRONG. So, when the market really starts to correction-crash, they will hold on to their stocks waiting for Wall Street’s next BUY THE DIP call.

Regardless, if we can understand the fundamentals, then we would be foolish to keep most of our investment funds in Stock and Real Estate assets. The following chart follows the KISS Principle – Keep It Simple Stupid:

Comparing high & low risk assets

You don’t need to be a highly-trained financial or technical analyst to spot the HIGH vs. LOW-RISK assets in the chart above. Hell, you don’t even need to see the figures in the chart. If we understand that all markets behave in cycles, then it’s common sense that asset prices will peak and decline. We can plainly see that both Real Estate and Stocks asset values are near their top while the silver price is closer to its bottom.

Thus, assets that are near a top are HIGH RISK, and those near a bottom are LOW RISK. It’s really that simple.

Continue reading... (source)

February 14 2018

moneymetals

Huge Market Correction Update & Silver Price Trend

While the Dow Jones Index and broader markets are recovering from their lows set on Friday, the worst is still yet to come. Investors need to realize that stock market indexes don’t fall in a straight line. Also, there is also the possibility that the Dow Jones Index could surpass its previous high of 26,600 points. Only time will tell.

However, the leverage, margin and insane valuations in the markets are still in way out of whack. Just because the Dow Jones Index has added 1,200 points from its lows in early Friday trading, it is still 2,000 points below its peak of 26,600. Furthermore, when the Dow Jones peak at 14,100 points in 2007, it took six months and three different peaks before the index started to fall off a cliff in 2008.

For example, the Dow Jones Index hit three peaks in 2007:

  1. July 2007 = 13,900
  2. Oct 2007 = 14,100
  3. Dec 2007 13,600

Over that six month period in 2007, the Dow Jones Index rose and fell three different times. The biggest percentage drop was between July 2007 and Oct 2007, at nearly 10%. However, the Dow Jones index peaks were at the most, 3.5% from their high of 14,100. Moreover, it took six months for the Dow Jones Index to finally head lower on a sustained basis and it wasn’t until nearly a year later in Oct 2008 did the market finally crash.

So, if you think the Dow Jones correction is over, then you are going to be in for a rude awakening.

Continue reading (source

February 12 2018

moneymetals

Reckless Deficit Spending by Congress Set to Wreck the Dollar

U.S. equities got a free ride on the Trump train after his election, even as Federal Reserve officials hiked interest rates. That ride may have ended last week.

Hiked rates

If commentators are correct and the blame for recent selling in the stock market falls on the burgeoning fear of rising interest rates, it looks like Fed tightening is finally having the effect many predicted when the cycle began.

Most currently expect the FOMC to continue with hikes at about the same pace set in 2017. They have gotten away with several hikes, but attempting several more will be harder for them.

The question is whether the Fed’s tolerance for pain is any higher under new chairman Jerome Powell. We’d wager that it won’t take much in the way of flagging stock prices and slowing growth to have them reversing course and punching the stimulus button.

No one should bet that last week’s rally in the dollar means the bottom is in. The next few years look downright terrifying for the greenback. Here are some factors to consider:

  • Congressional Republicans embarrassed themselves last week by proving the lip service they pay toward fiscal conservatism is nothing but lies. The Republican leadership shepherded through $300 billion in additional spending. Furthermore, they once again completely suspended the limit on borrowing;
  • The Treasury will be issuing staggering amounts of new debt to fund the Congressional spending spree. Last fall’s tax cut may be good news for taxpayers, but it will also magnify federal deficits. Net new debt in 2018 is expected to be $1.3 trillion – the highest since 2010!
  • President Trump will soon begin the push for a trillion-dollar infrastructure program. That will almost certainly be paid for with additional borrowing.
  • The creditworthiness of the U.S. is once again back in the news. Rating agency Moody’s raised the idea of a downgrade for U.S. debt last week.

​Continue reading (source)​

January 31 2018

moneymetals

WORLD’S LARGEST SILVER MINES: Suffer Falling Ore Grades & Rising Costs

The world’s two largest silver mines have seen their productivity decline substantially due to falling ore grades and rising costs. Gone are the days when silver mines could produce silver at 15-20 ounces per ton. Today, the Primary Silver Mining Industry is likely producing silver at an average yield of 4-5 ounces per ton.

In my newest video, I discuss the changes that have taken place in the world’s two largest silver mines, the Cannington Mine in Australia and the Fresnillo Mine in Mexico. Falling ore grades and rising energy costs have contributed to the doubling and tripling of production costs at many silver mining companies. Investors who believe it still only costs $5 an ounce to produce silver, as it did in 1999, fail to grasp what is taking place in the silver mining industry:


A big problem that has confused investors is the reporting of the “CASH COST” metric by the mining industry. Some silver mining companies can brag that they have a very low cast cost of $5 an ounce, but they arrive at that figure by deducting their “by-product credits.” By-product credits are the revenues they receive from producing copper, zinc, lead, and gold along with their silver.


Continue to the full article here: (source

January 22 2018

moneymetals

For Americans Buying Gold and Silver: Still a Big U.S. Pricing Advantage

Two years ago in this space, I penned an essay discussing how Americans - and other countries that are "dollarized" - where the local currency is either the USD or pegged to it - had a significant advantage when it came to getting the most for their money when exchanging dollars for precious metals.

Lately I looked into this issue again and the good news is - it's still a good deal. In relation to a lot of other folks, even better than before! But the bad news is that this might not be the case much longer...

The Cando Disadvantage

The Canadian Dollar is known in the trade as a "Cando". In 2008 it traded at US$1.10, which meant that at the time, Canadians could buy 10% more metal than Americans. In 2012 it had a high of US$1.01. In 2016 it bottomed at US$0.58 (ouch!), and today still trades at about 80 cents on the dollar. As the chart shows, Canadians get about 20% less gold and silver for their money than their southern neighbors (us).

Continue reading.. (source)

January 03 2018

moneymetals

How the Investor Fundamentally Changed the Silver Market

While silver investors continue to be discouraged about the low price, the market has experienced a fundamental change that needs to be understood. Ever since governments removed silver from official coinage, over 50 years ago, the market has been supplemented by several billion ounces of silver. The majority of that supply has been depleted.

The reason the United States and other countries stopped producing official silver coinage wasn’t due to any monetary conspiracy; rather it was based on a straightforward problem; supply versus demand. Because industrial silver consumption had skyrocketed after World War 2, the silver market would have suffered deficits if the U.S. Treasury didn’t sell silver into the market.

It was quite simple; there just wasn’t enough silver to go around. So, governments started to reduce, then eliminate silver from their coinage in the 1960’s. A lot of this silver, known as “junk silver,” was either purchased by investors or remelted and sold back as supply into the market. While there is no way of knowing how much of the older official junk silver remains in the market, the majority of it was recycled for much-needed supply.

We can see the dwindling down of government stocks and older official silver coinage in the following chart:

Global silver scrap supply & net govt. sales (chart)

The BLUE bars represent silver scrap supply, and the OLIVE colored bars show the amount of net government silver sales. From 2000 to 2013, governments sold 636 million oz (Moz) of silver into the market. Net government sales were from stockpiled silver and older official coins. However, in 2014, this supply totally dried up. For the past four years, there haven’t been any government silver sales.

Another interesting aspect of this chart is the declining amount of silver scrap supply. Even though the price of silver during the 2015-2017 period was much higher than from 2000-2007, scrap supply is considerably less. For example, the price of silver in 2000 was $4.95 while global scrap supply was 181 Moz. However, the silver price has been three times higher (2015-2017), but the average scrap supply has been 140 Moz.

Continue to the full article (source)

December 21 2017

moneymetals

December 18 2017

moneymetals

A Bit of Tax Planning Can Turn Lemons Into Lemonade

Inline image 1

The IRS classifies bullion coins and bars which carry zero collectible value the same way it categorizes a collection of baseball cards. Because of the IRS’s dishonest interpretation of tax law, gold and silver bullion is currently subject to the higher 28% long-term capital gains rate for “collectibles.” By comparison, the rate for Wall Street and government approved assets – just about everything else – is 15-20%, depending upon the taxpayer’s income.

Investors might as well use this punitive long-term capital gains rate to their advantage. Metal purchased more than a year ago at a higher price can be sold to unlock losses and reduce taxes. Individuals can claim up to $3,000 in losses against ordinary income, and more if they have capital gains on another asset. (Check with your own tax advisor.)

Tax breaks

Now is certainly not a great time to exit the metals markets, in our opinion. Fortunately, realizing capital losses can be done without relinquishing a position in metals for more than a few seconds. Investors can immediately buy replacement metals without having the transaction classified as a wash sale (wash sale rules do NOT apply to precious metals – only to securities).

Read more: (source

moneymetals

December 04 2017

moneymetals

Gerald Celente: Middle East Wild Cards Could Bring Down Markets, Drive Up Gold

Well now, without further delay, let’s get right to this week’s exclusive interview.

Gerald celente

Mike Gleason: It is my privilege now to welcome Gerald Celente, publisher of the renowned Trends Journal. Mr. Celente is perhaps the most well-known trends forecaster in the world and it's always great to have him on with us.

Gerald, thanks for taking the time and welcome back.

Gerald Celente: Thanks for having me on.

Mike Gleason: Well, Gerald, to start off here, we still have the equities markets ripping and roaring and there is seemingly no news that can derail the train. So, as we head into the end of the year, what does your forecast show for the crowd on Wall Street? Is the party going to end anytime soon?

Gerald Celente: Well, as they go through with this tax deal, it's just going to bring more money to the bigger corporations and you saw what the corporations have done with the profits from the past, what do they do with them? They reinvested them into the stock market rather than building their companies and investing in capital improvements.

So, giving them more money will give them more stock buybacks. The more stock buybacks, the higher the market goes. I mean that's the reality of it. So, if the tax breaks go through the way they're being planned, we're going to see more stock buybacks, more cheap money to reinvest back into the markets.

Again, we're looking at a very small segment of the population that's really playing the markets. For example, only 10% of Americans are in the markets at the range that makes any difference, so that 10%, for example, that's playing, they have about in equity about $350,000 (on average). The rest of society that has money into it, the so called middle class, of those that have any money in it, and again the 10% own over 90%. For the rest of the society, they only have about $15,000 in equity.

So, the markets are just going to keep going up if the cheap money keeps existing. Again, that's going to also see what happens when they raise interest rates, which are about a 99% sure shot now, later in December. And if the cheap money flows stop, then the markets stop. It's as simple as that, but we don't think a 25 basis point increase is going to have much of an impact.

Mike Gleason: Clearly the world has a problem with crooked bankers and corrupt politicians. We talked about this a bit when we had you on back in August. The two aren't unrelated, of course. Bankers and politicians have a very long and dark history of collusion.

On one hand, if history is a guide, there isn't much reason to expect anyone will be held to account for their crimes. "They are too big to jail," as former Attorney General Eric Holder might say. On the other hand, we can't help but be a little bit hopeful. It looks to us like some of these crimes, such as the Uranium One deal, are getting harder to ignore.

What do you make of the recent news? Are you feeling any more optimistic about some of these crooks actually going to prison?

Gerald Celente: No, quite the opposite. Look at the new Fed chair that's coming in. He's already saying that the banking regulations in place now are too tough and tough enough. So, if under the current regulations nobody went to jail and they soften them, they could steal more, and get fined, and also accused of less crimes.

So, no, it's going in the opposite direction. Under the new administration, they're not draining the swamp, they’re just filling the swamp with different swamp creatures. I mean look at the Trump White House. Who's running it? Mnuchin and Cohn on the financial end and those are both Goldman Sachs guys. It's just more of the same.

Mike Gleason: The rise of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin in particular, is making waves in the precious metals markets. Some of the demand for gold and silver has been diverted to Bitcoin. People see it as another form of honest money and there is plenty of excitement over the huge price gains. Lots of people are wondering what the rise of Bitcoin might mean for precious metals over the longer term.

Now, our take is that Bitcoin offer hope as honest money and we are certainly fans of anything that can circumvent central bankers. Gold and silver, on the other hand, are proven stores of value with a track record extending back thousands of years and they are totally off the grid. Physical metals work with or without electricity or an internet connection and they can be used without leaving digital tracks behind.

What are your thoughts on the relationship between Bitcoin and bullion?

Read/Listen to the full podcast here: (source

November 30 2017

moneymetals

November 29 2017

moneymetals
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